UK/US Box Office February 9th-11th 2018 Week 6 and UK BO Predictions

Top 5 Breakdown

1. Fifty Shades Freed – £6,132,414 – NE

Showing how front-loaded Fifty Shades of Grey films have become

Fifty Shades of Grey opened with £4.61m 34.7% of its £13.27m opening (37.9% of total box office);

Fifty Shades Darker opened with £2.89m (-42%) 38.3% of its £7.55m opening (32.7% of total box office)

Fifty Shades Freed opened with £2.67m (-16%) 43.55% of its £6.13m opening

While rival studios kept their distance from Fifty Shades of Grey in 2015 as 20^th Century Fox bringing forward Kingsman: The Secret Service two weeks to avoid opening against it as did in the US and didn’t open anything major against it for three weeks. Rivals studios did similar to Fifty Shades Darker last year opening The Lego Batman Movie against it which of course was targeting a completely different demographic and the week after similarly with John Wick: Chapter Two. But this year Fifty Shades Feed doesn’t even get to have Valentine’s Day to itself with Black Panther opening only five days after it opened. 

Biggest issue with Fifty Shades film trilogy is these are films targeting female audience but as Variety’s review of the first film said, ‘was more Johnson than johnson‘ and as Ana says ‘nothing but boobs in boob land’ in Fifty Shades but Fifty Shades trilogy aren’t targeting a male audience so why is the nudity mostly of Dakota Johnson as I doubt women paid to see her naked they want to see all of Jamie Dornan.

The Fifty Shades of Grey trilogy films might be 18 rated films they can’t be compared to regular 18s or erotic thrillers like Basic Instinct, Gone Girl, Eyes Wide Shut, Wild Things, Single White Female, Final Analysis, Fear, Perfect Stranger (both also directed by James Foley), Obsessed, Sliver, Jagged Edge, Jade, Sea of Love, Black Widow, Unfaithful, Bound. Color of Night and Body of Evidence.

As the books were originally Twilight fan fiction Christian Grey and Anastasia Steele are Edward Cullen and Bella Swan from Twilight. E.L James originally wrote it in 2011 under the title Masters of the Universe which became Fifty Shades of Grey, In March 2012 she signed a contract with Vintage Books and the book sold 10 million copies in six weeks and by the end of 2012 sold 70 million copies worldwide.

As Fifty Shades of Grey was originally written as fan fiction to Twilight it needs to be compared with young adult films like Twilight and Hunger Games rather than an erotic thriller like Basic Instinct opened in 1992 with £2.1m taking £15.4m a year later Indecent Proposal opened with £1.5m taking £11.8m or more recently Gone Girl in 2014 opening £4.1m and taking £22.1m. As Fifty Shades of Grey films are much more front-loaded as Twilight was with their openings taking 40%+ of their final box office.

50 Shades of Grey became the biggest 18 film in the UK after 10 days toping The Wolf of Wall Street and Gone Girl but the only thing they have in common with is film certificate as the audience is completely different.

Fifty Shades of Grey and Fifty Shades Darker are the two biggest 18 films in the UK but the rest of the top 20 films are targeting very different demographics. While inflation inflated box office would see Fatal Attraction, The Silence of the Lambs, Seven, Hannibal and American Beauty all taking more of them as had far more admissions; Fifty Shades Freed will join the top 20 over the next 10 days.

So, the Fifty Shades of Grey films need to be compared with the source material film performances which was why the opening of the first film and then the big drop off of the sequels weren’t as surprising as many believed. One of the biggest issues was Universal Pictures didn’t acquire sequel rights, so they couldn’t make the sequels immediately after the success of the first film meant there was a two-year gap between Fifty Shades of Grey and Fifty Shades Darker.

This would normally be fine if it was just another erotic thriller but being a young adult adaption meant that the audience had moved on to other things and why the sequel took far less than the first film and the second sequel even worse. Normally with young adult adaptations as Harry Potter, Twilight and Hunger Games, the films opened yearly which helped continue to build their audience.

Ellie Goulding Love Me Like You Do is the main song for 50 Shades of Grey which has been watched over 1.66 billion times on YouTube; Taylor Swift and Zayn I Don’t Wanna Live Forever was the main song for Fifty Shades Darker watched over 449 million times on YouTube but Liam Payne and Rita Ora’s For You song for Fifty Shades Freed has been seen only 26 million times to date on YouTube.

Fifty Shades Freed has 500 million reach over social media platforms Facebook, Twitter, Instagram and YouTube behind Fifty Shades of Grey 890 million Fifty Shades Darker 945 million. The announcement teaser trailer released in September was seen over 100m times and the trailer released in November was seen over 200m times.

In an interview with Marie Claire, Dakota Johnson talked about making the film and having a strapless thong superglued to her body and they had a sex advisor teaching them all about BDSM.  While the biggest laugh in the film came from when Christian tells Ana that she got her promotion through “hard work and talent,” not her connections but what is this work she is meant to be so good at doing?  All she seems to be doing is cancelling appointments and meetings because of Christian while the one time she actually does some work it is to tell someone to make the font bigger on a cover.

2. The Greatest Showman – £1,925,895 – £26,106,298

Down 12.52% in its seventh weekend, The Greatest Showman must be comparable with its holding power as Titanic was 20 years ago down only as fans of the film are seeing it multiple times as they did when they did similar for Titanic in January 1998.

The Greatest Showman is now holding as strong in the US and UK as Titanic released 20 years ago its opening weekend not including previews only 7.36% of final BO expected £35m+ with its BO 13.59 times opening weekend Titanic was 7.01% and 14.26

The Greatest Showman has had the fourth biggest seventh-weekend box office in the UK and the biggest since Arthur Christmas in December 2011 £2,047,463,

Avatar took £4,865,081 in January 2010 and Titanic in March 1998 with £3,010,921.

beating many other films seventh weekends including:

Dunkirk £935,980 in September 2017

Star Wars: The Force Awakens £1,342,877 in January 2016

SPECTRE took £807,462 in December 2015

Jurassic World took £1,004,125 in July 2015

Paddington took £1,268,785 in January 2015

Skyfall took £1,428,708 in December 2012

Harry Potter & The Deathly Hallows: Part 2 took £765,191 in August 2011

Toy Story 3 took £934,423 in September 2010

Mamma Mia! took £1,548,894 in August 2008

Both Avatar and Titanic received critical acclaim and were the biggest film releases of their release date while of course The Greatest Showman received mixed reviews and was overshadowed by Star Wars: The Last Jedi, Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle and even Pitch Perfect 3 as all were sequels or remakes of hugely popular films.

The Greatest Showman has become the 16th biggest film of 2017 and 20th Century Fox’s second biggest film of 2017 behind The Boss Baby which it should overtake by next weekend. The Greatest Showman should now easily overtake last years La La Land £30,4m as well a Spider-Man Homecoming and Thor: Ragnarok to be the ninth biggest 2017 release.

Interesting that It and Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle is the films above it as all three films performed far stronger than most expected but while we will see Jumanji 2 and It 2 unlikely there will be a The Greatest Showman 2.

For the last few weeks been comparing The Greatest Showman with other musicals Moulin Rouge and Chicago while also being close to Mamma Mia! as it was a film that needs to be seen with an audience maybe why it got the mixed reviews received as like Mamma Mia! it’s a completely different cinema experience watching alone or with a packed cinema.

The Greatest Showman less the preview box office its opening is about 7% of its final box office likely to be now £31m which would be similar to Titanic and better than Billy Elliot, Mamma Mia and Moulin Rouge.

The film’s soundtrack is still #1 in the UK for its fifth week selling twice as many copies as second place Justin Timberlake’s Man of The Woods while singles This is Me #6, Rewrite the Stars #16, the Greatest Show #21; Keala Settle performed This is Me on the Graham Norton Show last week the song won Best Original Song at the Golden Globes last month and is expected to win Best Original Song at the Oscars on March 4^th.

This Is Me single has had sales of 187,061 to date and the album over 211,408 copies overtaking the total sales for last year’s biggest movie soundtrack, Moana.

This weekend there will be special sing-along screenings which will likely see fans come out again to see the film.

Much of the film’s marketing was fan-generated content including three girls singing a medley of the soundtrack on Facebook having 200,000 views and Atlantic Records added them to the video on the film’s official page and has now been viewed over 5.5 million times.

Much has been said over recent weeks about the impact on streaming against cinema after the release of Cloverfield Paradox on Netflix and acquiring Annihilation, Extinction but The Greatest Showman shows people will always want to go to the cinema and see films like it while comic-book movies will come and go like other genres are some genres of films people will always want to see in the cinema. Watching The Greatest Showman on the small screen will be like watching Mamma Mia! but watching it with hundreds of others in a cinema you get to experience the film in a way that only cinema can do.  

20^th Century Fox will be hoping the magic can strike twice with their long in development Queen biopic Bohemian Rhapsody opening this Christmas and Steven Spielberg is currently casting his long in development West Side Story remake. But of course their upcoming slate for 2019 is overshadowed with the impending acquisition by Disney but this hasn’t stopped the studio dating several upcoming films this week including the sequel to Murder on the Orient Express Death on the Nile for November 2019 while even further ahead animated film Foster made by Blue Sky Studios to be released in March 2021.

Have also moved The Predator from August where it was sandwiched between Mission Impossible Fallout and The Equalizer 2 to September 14^th and moved Alita: Battle Angel from being sandwiched between Skyscraper and also Mission Impossible Fallout to December 21^st against Aquaman and Bumblebee. They also previously moved New Mutants and The Kid Who Would Be King to their 2019 slate.

3. Coco – £1,213,572 – £11,674,613

Down 26.54% in its fourth weekend; as with Early Man hard to compare with the fourth weekend of Big Hero 6 the last Disney film to open ahead of February half-term in 2015 as its fourth weekend was the end of half-term holidays taking over double £2,581,806 and £16,178,232.

But Coco is now strongly positioned for half-term holidays and likely to see it take upwards of £3m+ for Mon-Thurs which will see it get close to Big Hero 6 fourth weekend total of £16.17m.

Coco is holding close to their last original animated film Moana which took £1,105,469 and £9,833,507 in December 2016.

With a strong half-term week Coco should be looking to get close to both Moana £20,4m and Big Hero 6 £19.34m. But neither Coco or Early Man will get close to the total box office of last year’s Sing £29.17m and The Lego Batman Movie taking £27.43m but were unlikely to do so.

Next for Disney animation is Ralph Breaks the Internet: Wreck-It Ralph 2 sequel to 2012’s Wreck-It Ralph which took £21.61m and then eagerly awaited Frozen 2 released November 2019 the original film took over £39m in 2013. Disney’s next original animated films won’t be released until 2020 and 2021 with Pixar releasing Incredibles 2 in July and Toy Story 4 in June 2019

4. Early Man – £1,130,466 – £5,306,430

Down 24.75% its third weekend as with Coco both are now positioned well for half-term holidays that begin on Monday over the next two weeks.

Shaun The Sheep Movie took £2,429,181 in its third weekend and £10,352,125 total in February 2015 but that was within half-term holidays taking £3.56 from half term holidays but Early Man is one week further in its release and will take slightly less especially as it plays to a similar audience as Coco likely taking £2m+.

Is now unlikely Early Man will get close to the total box office of Shaun The Sheep Movie but was always a surprise why Studiocanal UK choose to open Early Man a week after Coco and still two weeks before half-term holidays. Would made more sense to give Coco an extra week and hold weekend previews to build word of mouth but Early Man is a very enjoyable fun Aardman Animation film but doesn’t get anywhere close to the standard of previous films and opening against the critical acclaimed Coco was always going to be a battle that I was unlikely to win.

Studiocanal must have known this when Disney moved Coco from early December to avoid Paddington 2 but maybe they thought the strength of Aardman Animation brand was strong enough to compete against Disney.

After three weekends 

Chicken Run in July 2000 took £2,573,372 and £13,876,666 (47.84% of total £29,004,504)

Wallace & Gromit: The Curse of the Were-Rabbit in October 2005 took £3,593,266 and £25,840,863 (80.86% of total £31,956,705)

Flushed Away in December 2006 took £3,106,874 and £5,837,210 (55.15% of total 10,582,861)

Arthur Christmas in November 2011 took £2,526,285 and £8,048,183 (38.36% of total £20,977,913)

The Pirates! In an Adventure with Scientists! In March 2012 took £1,477,517 and £12,840,803 (79.11% of total £16,237,721)

Shaun the Sheep Movie on February 2015 took £2,429,181 and £10,352,125 (75.6% of total £13,690,145)

Its very hard to compare with other Aardman Animation releases as the list about shows as some have very strong legs but others while opening very strong drop much faster while also having half-term in its fourth week also makes comparisons harder with Shaun the Sheep Movie. A lot has to do with how it performs over half-term holidays if it has a chance to take £10m+.

Next for Aardman Animation and Studiocanal is Shaun the Sheep Movie 2 which again Studiocanal have strangely sandwiched between Disney’s Dumbo reimagination and Universal Pictures Doctor Dolittle remake on April 5^th, 2019. With Easter two weeks later opening a week after or before would make much more sense as being a British fil they don’t need to so date specific as studio releases that open day and date with the US.

5. Darkest Hour – £980,171 – £20,655,548

Down 40.2% in its fifth weekend Darkest Hour is holding close to The Revenant and La La Land and with BAFTA awards this weekend was Gary Oldman is expected to win Best Actor and Oscar a few weeks after.

Darkest Hour if continues to hold close The Theory of Everything (the last film British Actor won Best Actor) will likely take £25m+ will see it becoming the biggest Best Actor Oscar-winning film since The King’s Speech.

Shows the Brit factor inflates the box office for Oscar winners as Darkest Hour has become this year must see Oscar-winning film of the year as previous films Les Miserables, 12 Years a Slave, The Theory of Everything, The Revenant and La La Land over the last five years.

After five weekends  

Les Miserables in January 2013 took £1,640,857 and total £33,456,340 (82.34% of final box office of £40.63m)

12 Years a Slave in January 2014 took £893,948 and total £15,452,193 (76.68% of final box office of £20.15m)

The Theory of Everything in January 2015 took £1,032,912 and total of £16,643,178 (77.55% of final box office of £21.46m)

The Revenant in January 2016 took £717,860 and total £19,620,532 (92.11% of final box office of £23.1m)

La La Land in January 2017 took £949,283 and total of £26,497,599 – (88.65% of final box office of £30.42m

With Darkest Hour dropping down the chart this weekend Universal Pictures release Lady Bird expected to win Saoirse Ronan Best Actress Oscar and Bafta and 20^th Century Fox releases The Shape of Water expected to win Best Film. Unlike when Darkest Hour and Three Billboards opened a month ago these two films are targeting similar audiences and both hoping to build on their strong buzz and award nominations.

also released

• Paramount Pictures – Tad The Lost Explorer And The Secret Of King Midas

opened with £302,312 from 449 screens

In 2014 Paramount Pictures acquired worldwide rights to Spanish animated films Capture the Flag and Tad: The Lost Explorer; Capture the Flag opened January 2016 with £774,885 taking £1,005,198. Tad opened with less than half was always going to be a hard sell being the sequel to an unknown Spanish animated film released straight to DVD in the UK two years after opening in Spain and with much higher profile Coco and Early Man.

Paramount in recent years have lacked content releasing fewer films than any of their rivals apart from Disney but Disney’s have performed fart stronger. Their next release is not until April A Quiet Place TV spot shown during the Super Bowl and trailer released this week have received positive buzz with Mission: Impossible:  Fallout opening summer and their Transformers spinoff Bumblebee opening in December but as with Avengers in 2012 Paramount have probably made more money not releasing Cloverfield Paradox with Netflix reportedly paying them $50m. 

 

• Studiocanal UK – The Mercy

opened with £301,138 from 254 screens

 Starring Colin Firth and Rachel Weisz the film generated strong media coverage with both in the UK to promote it but after being originally seen as a potential award contender opening against other award contenders was a strange time to open such a film.

It was originally planned to premiere at Venice or Toronto Film Festivals last year but was delayed due to Colin Firth promoting Kingsman: The Golden Circle and director James Marsh on post-production about the Hatton Garden jewellery heist The King of Thieves, maybe as it is also released by Studiocanal later this year they didn’t want to hold The Mercy back any longer as it was always going to be a hard sell.

 

• Warner Bros – The 15:17 To Paris

opened with £290,576 from 323 screens

After the success of Clint Eastwood’s previous two films Sully and American Sniper  many expected The 15:17 To Paris to get an get a limited Oscar-qualifying platform release last year but instead was dated in February to dump it; opening was similar to J. Edgar £413,210 in January 2012 and Gran Torino £332,877 in February 2009.

It’s surprising  Clint Eastwood choose to make The 15:17 To Paris instead of his long in development A Star Is Born remake which Bradley Cooper is directing and starring alongside Lady Gaga was originally set to open in May with a likely premiere at Cannes but now opens in October with a likely Toronto or Venice premiere. 

• STX International – Den of Thieves

£599,326 – £2,248,544 from 346 screens

Down 44.6% in its second weekend becoming STX biggest film in the UK to date after their first three films took Wind River opened with £0.94m, Home Again £0.95m and Breathe £1.27m.

Den of Thieves has only taken $57m worldwide but STX has already announced a sequel similar to their speedy plans for Bad Moms sequel months after the first film opened in 2016.

Gerald Butler continues to surprise at the box office after both Olympus Has Fallen opened in April 2013 with £2.25m taking £6.1m and London Has Fallen opened with £3.19m in March 2016 taking £10.97m despite poor reviews. Last year he starred in Geostorm which still managed to open with £1.68m and take £3.98m.

Upcoming films from STX including Gringo, Adrift, I Feel Pretty (trailer released last week feeling like a remake of Shallow Hal), The Happytime Murders, American Animals, Peppermint, Second Act, Steel Soldiers and The Red Sea Diving Resort.

• Universal Pictures – Phantom Thread

Down 40.26% in its second weekend; while critical reaction for the film has been very positive with 91% Rotten Tomatoes score some have made the strange comparison to Fifty Shades Freed as they have done comparing Fifty Shades Freed with mother.

Before the film’s release, some called it an art-house Fifty Shades of Grey with Daniel Day-Lewis character Reynolds Woodcock inviting Alma to be his muse and he is used to getting his own way.

UK box office in detail

This weekend’s top 10 box office took £14,358,028 up 11.5% from last weekend £12,874,781

The weekend admissions 1,955,997 up 13.79% from last weekend 1,718,929; despite 3% inflation in the UK in 2017 UK Cinema Association/BFI are claiming average ticket prices in 2017 was up only 1% to £7.49; in the US inflation for 2017 was only 2% but their average price increased by 3.6%. Ahead of the release of The Last Jedi I checked the price of over 230 major exhibitor’s cinemas first 2D screening and average was £11.61 less than 10% had tickets of £7.49 or under;

11 films opened at weekend taking £7,639,116; Fifty Shades Freed 80.27% (£6,132,414); remaining 10 films shared 19.72% (£1,506,703)

The weekend was down 36.3% from last year (£22,550,899): The LEGO Batman Movie £7,906,468, Fifty Shades Darker £7,557,485, The Space Between Us £258,401, Fences £102,688, 20th Century Women £60,203

Down 42.62% from 2016: (£25,026,922): Deadpool £13,729,803, Alvin and the Chipmunks: The Road Chip £4,296,291, Zoolander 2 £2,089,678, Pride and Prejudice and Zombies £357,444, A Bigger Splash £347,704, The Iron Giant: Signature Edition £13,729

Next weekend in 2017: (£16,799,621) John Wick: Chapter Two £2,232,055, The Great Wall £1,646,516, Hidden Figures £1,448,214, Moonlight £621,836, Moulin Rouge! (Secret Cinema 2017) £376,900, The Founder £231,716

 

UK Box Office Top 10

 

US Box Office Top 10

US Box office

• Universal Pictures – Fifty Shades Freed

Opened with $38.56m receiving predictably poor reviews 11% Rotten Tomatoes score and B+ CinemaScore close to Fifty Shades Darker but better than C+ Fifty Shades of Grey received which is surprising as it was the best reviewed film of the series.

 Early tracking a month ago had Fifty Shades Freed opening with $37-40m which will be a 15% drop from Fifty Shades Darker

The first Fifty Shades of Grey film opened in February 2015 surrounded by huge hype but many opening with $85,171,450; 51.2% of its total box office of $166,167,230.

Fifty Shades Darker opening with 45% less than the first film $46,607,250; 40.67% of its total box office of $114,581,250.

While the first films took $280m in the US they were far more successful internationally taking $952m globally but Fifty Shades Darker took 33% less than Fifty Shades of Grey.

Fifty Shades of Grey dropped 73.9% in 2015 ($22.25m) and Fifty Shades Darker dropped 56.5% ($20.27m) but Fifty Shades Freed is expected to drop heavier than Fifty Shades Freed as has Black Panther opening against it in its second weekend far bigger competition than last years The Great Wall, Fist Fight and A Cure for Wellness.

The five Twilight films had taken $1.36bn at the US box office and $3.34bn worldwide so was always likely female audiences will come out as strongly to see Fifty Shades of Grey.

Fifty Shades Freed took $98.1m internationally and $136.9m worldwide seeing the film series take $1.085 billion globally; Fifty Shades of Grey opened with almost double globally in 2015 with $266m and 7% less than Fifty Shades Darker last year opening with $147.8m.

 

• Sony Pictures – Peter Rabbit

Opened with $25.01m; received A- CinemaScore after receiving poor reviews incredibly opening with more than double Paddington 2 opened with last month after receiving very positive reviews; Sony was predicting it to opener closer to $16m.

The opening was close to last years The Emoji Movie opening with $24.53m and 2015’s Goosebumps $23.61m; has received average reviews but will still open with more than double Paddington 2 opened with last month in the US.

Peter Rabbit is the only children’s film until Sherlock Gnomes opening the end of next month so likely to perform close to The Emoji Movie.

The first trailer released in November was poorly received from fans with the casting of James Corden getting the most negative response comparing it to The Emoji Movie but as that film the audience who paid to see the film didn’t care about it which was close to the same aged audience for Peter Rabbit.

• Warner Bros – The 15:17 To Paris

Opened with $12.55m; receiving B- CinemaScore and only 22% Rotten Tomatoes score.

After Clint Eastwood had huge success with American Sniper and Sully it seemed strange that Warner Bros choose to date his latest film for February as when it was announced it was expected to be an award contender as his previous two films were. 

Thought possibly Warner Bros were learning from their mistake rushed released Ben Affleck’s crime drama Live By Night last year choosing instead to hold back with the film to give it better chance to find an audience. Instead looks more like they knew they had a stinker and choose to dump it in February.

Sight unseen and with Clint Eastwood pedigree expected the film to be more Lone Survivor, Deepwater Horizon, Captain Philips, Argo, Bridge of Spies, The Debt, Munich and United 93 instead was more like 2016’s 13 Hours: The Secret Soldiers of Benghazi $16.19m. While The 15:17 To Paris opening was closer to Clint Eastwood’s 2014’s Jersey Boys $13.31m, 2011’s J. Edgar $11.21m, 2010’s Hereafter $12.01m.

PTSD films have underwhelmed at the box office in recent years including Thank You For Your Service and Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk.

• Sony Pictures – Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle

Down 10.1% in its eighth weekend taking $9.82m and $365.65m;

Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle is now the third biggest Sony Pictures film in the US and has become their biggest film, not Spider-Man film; Jumanji will overtake Spider-Man 2 $373.58m by next week and should take over $400m will see it overtake Spider-Man $403.7m to become their biggest ever film at the US box office. 

Jumanji took $7.5m internationally $503.1m total and $881.8m worldwide; Jumanji is now the #49 biggest film globally having overtaken Spider-Man: Homecoming and Spectre and will shortly overtake Spider-Man 3 and Harry Potter and the Goblet of Fire; Jumanji is still to open in Japan in April.

Jumanji is Sony Pictures 3^rd biggest film worldwide and will overtake Spider-Man 3 this week to become their second biggest film globally behind Skyfall.  

It is no wonder Sony Pictures have announced plans for a sequel which is expected to replace Masters of the Universe on their release schedule opening two days before Star Wars IX. In early December I said that Jumanji would squeeze Star War: The Last Jedi box office I was laughed at, but Jumanji has taken $200m+ than most expected it would while The Last Jedi took $200m+ less than many “experts” predicted.

Being in my early 20s when the first Jumanji opened, and a huge Robin Williams fan wasn’t looking forward to Jumanji reboot but to teens and families, it was the perfect movie for the whole family that you didn’t need to watch seven movies before and go on Google afterwards to try to make sense of. 

• 20th Century Fox – The Greatest Showman

Dropped only 16.8% in its eighth weekend taking $6.4m and $146.53m

It is now the seventh biggest musical film in the US overtaking Mamma Mia and will shortly overtake Les Miserables and La La Land. 

Its holding stronger than last year’s La La Land which had 92% Rotten Tomatoes compared to only 55% for The Greatest Showman and only has been nominated for Best Original Song; after 7 weeks of La La Land going wide it took $4.94m and $125.95m; 83% of final box office of $151m if The Greatest Showman held similarly would take over $160m overtaking La La Land and could possible overtake $170.68m of Chicago to become the third biggest musical  behind Beauty and the Beast. Grease and becoming the highest grossing original musical at the US box office.

The Greatest Showman took $16.2m over the weekend and $153m internationally taking over $256m worldwide.

• 20^th Century Fox – Maze Runner: The Death Cure

Down 38% in its third weekend taking $6.22m and $49.24m.

The Maze Runner took $17.43m in its second weekend down 46.4% and $57.95m total (59.6% of its total box office of $102.4m)

The Maze Runner: The Scorch Trials took $14.2m in its second weekend down 52.9% and $51.95m total (63.6% of its total box office of $81.69m)

If Maze Runner: The Death Cure holds close to The Scorch Trials will end up with $60m+; the two previous films performed far stronger internationally taking over 70% of its global box office The Maze Runner took $348.3m and The Scorch Trials took $312.3m globally; took $35.2m international with total of $142.9m

• 20^th Century Fox – The Post

Dropped 30.4% in its eighth weekend taking $3.63m and $72.96m;

After five weeks wide will overtake 2015’s Bridge of Spies the latest film Steven Spielberg directed starring Tom Hanks this week to become Steven Spielberg’s biggest film since 2010’s Lincoln.

All other Oscar nominees dropped

• Fox Searchlight – The Shape of Water down 561 screens – down 28.6%
• Fox Searchlight – Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri down 453 screens – down 23.6%
• Neon – I. Tonya down 362 screens – down 32.3%
• Focus Features – Darkest Hours – down 441 screens – down 32.1%
• Focus Features – Phantom Thread – down 628 screens – down 43.4%
• A24 – Lady Bird – down 458 screens – down 31.4% b
• Sony Pictures Classics – Call Me By Your Name – down 106 screens – down 23.7%

Opening UK

UK Box Office Predictions

After having a similar 6 day opening as Thor: Ragnarok and Doctor Strange Black Panther will open similar to £12,375,804 which took £5,141,794 from previews Tues- Thurs. As Thor: Ragnarok Black Panther has received critical acclaim and massive media coverage even more than normal as many hyping it up as an important film is much more than a comic-book movie similar to what was said about Logan last year. But sight unseen I’m sure it’s like all the other Marvel Cinematic Universe films claimed to be the best film ever of the series but a few months later the next MCU replaces it. Black Panther is likely to take similar to Captain America: Civil War the film he first appeared in two years ago.

Fifty Shades Freed is likely to drop heavily than Fifty Shades Freed because of the arrival of Black Panther and the Oscar nominees The Shape of Water and Lady Bird both having generated strong buzz for weeks but could be hurt opening against each other as likely to attract similar audiences.

With it being the end of half-term both Coco and Early Man are likely to increase their box office by up to a third while sing-along screenings for The Greatest Showman could see it hold again strongly in its eighth weekend and will be battling it out with Coco in third.   

Opening February 16^th

• The Shape of Water – 20^th Century Fox

Fantasy drama starring Sally Hawkins, Michael Shannon, Richard Jenkins, Doug Jones, Michael Stuhlbarg and Octavia Spencer and directed by Guillermo del Toro; received its world premiere at Venice International Film Festival awarded the Golden Lion for best film in the competition; was also screened at Toronto International Film Festival; very positive reviews 92% Rotten Tomatoes score) many calling it the directors best film since Pan’s Labyrinth. Receiving 13 Oscar nominations and 12 Bafta nominations. Guillermo del Toro recently won the DGA Director award two weeks after winning the PGA both seen as the key precursor awards to Oscars. But no film since 1995’s Braveheart has won the best picture Oscar without previously receiving a SAG ensemble nomination.

The PGA winner has gone on to win the win the Best Picture Oscar 19 out of the last 28 times and the DGA winner has not had the same winner as the Oscars seven times in its 69-year history. Those seven films are 1995’s Apollo 13, Braveheart won both Oscars Ron Howard was not nominated at the Oscars; 1998’s Saving Private Ryan won Best Director, lost Best Picture to  Shakespeare in Love; 2002’s Chicago lost Best Director to The Pianist won Best Picture; 2005’s Brokeback Mountain won Best Director; lost Best Picture to Crash; 2012’s Argo, Life of Pi won Best Director; Argo won Best Picture Ben Affleck was not nominated at the Oscars; 2013’s Gravity won Best Director lost Best Picture to PGA co-winner 12 Years a Slave; 2016’s La La Land won Best Director lost Best Picture to Moonlight.

A fantasy film to be nominated for Best Film was a surprise to many as few have been nominated in the past Avatar, District 9, Inception and Mad Max: Fury Road but only The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King 15 years ago won Best Picture amongst its 11 Oscars. While Guillermo del Toro is the fourth Mexican filmmaker in the last five years to get a Best Director nomination (Alejandro G. Iñárritu Birdman and The Revenant) and Alfonso Cuarón (Gravity) Alejandro González Iñárritu was the first Mexican director to be nominated for Babel in 2006.

Pan’s Labyrinth opened in November 2006 with £298,432 holding strong in its second weekend down only 17% taking £246,342 going on to take £2,694,482

Since then he has directed Hellboy II: The Golden Army, Pacific Rim and Crimson Peak that had mixed success at the box office (Hellboy and Pacific Rim have sequels currently in production).For years he was trying to make $150m budget R-rated At the Mountains of Madness starring Tom Cruise and produced by James Cameron for Legendary Pictures first at Warner Bros and then at Universal but weren’t willing to make an R-rated film but after the success of Logan last year and a Best Picture Oscar will they think differently now?

Distributors used to platform their award contenders as they still do in the US opening on limited release and then expanding but this has become a rarity in recent years. While both The Shape of Water and Lady Bird have generated strong buzz over the last few months The Shape of Water receiving its UK premiere during the London Film Festival (Three Billboards closing the film festival) and Lady Bird was the surprise film. Both films will be helped to open the weekend of the BAFTA awards as both are expected to win major awards, but they do still open in a crowded marketplace.

• Lady Bird – Universal Pictures

Comedy-drama starring Saoirse Ronan, Laurie Metcalf, Tracy Letts, Lucas Hedges, Timothée Chalamet, Beanie Feldstein, Stephen Henderson and Lois Smith and written and directed by Greta Gerwig; had its world premiere at the Telluride Film Festival receiving a standing ovation the Toronto Film Festival receiving critical acclaim.

Similar films to the coming of age Lady Bird include 2015’s The Diary of a Teenage Girl and Mistress America, 2014’s Girlhood and 2016’s The Edge of Seventeen.

While Greta Gerwig said a dozen, films influenced making Lady Bird they include 1973’s American Graffiti, 1976’s Carrie, 1990’s Flirting, 1986’s Pretty in Pink, 1989’s Say Anything and 1996’s Secrets & Lies. She also said that parts of the film were inspired by her life.

 

• Father Figures – Warner Bros

Comedy starring Owen Wilson, Ed Helms, J. K. Simmons, Katt Williams, Terry Bradshaw, Ving Rhames, Harry Shearer, June Squibb, Christopher Walken, and Glenn Close and directed by Lawrence Sher.

The spec script then called Bastards was acquired by Paramount Pictures in 2011 in 2014 Alcon Entertainment acquired the project after they put it in turnaround to be released through their output deal with Warner Bros.

Filming started in October 2015 and was originally set for release in November 2016, then moved to January 2017 before moving to December. In September its title was changed from Bastards to Father Figures in the UK was briefly changed to Who’s Your Daddy? Before keeping its US title.

Father Figures flopped in December opening with $3.28m in December 2017 taking $17.46m and is likely to open close to CHiPs: Law and Disorder opened within March 2017 with £205,933. Father Figures is the kind of film that doesn’t need to have a theatrical release anymore and should find a home om SVoD as Cloverfield Paradox was released on Netflix last week. They previously acquired international rights for Shaft reboot released in 2019 and Alex Garland thriller Annihilation from Paramount Pictures and also acquired Sci-Fi thriller Extinction from Universal Pictures which as meant to be released in January.

Opening in the US

• Black Panther – Disney

18th Marvel Cinematic Universe film starring Chadwick Boseman, Michael B. Jordan, Lupita Nyong’o, Martin Freeman, Angela Bassett, Forest Whitaker, and Andy Serkis and directed by Ryan Coogler.

The media are hyping the film as an important movie as it featured a black hero which shouldn’t be such a big deal as its 21 years ago since comic-book movies Spawn and Blade opening a year later. Wesley Snipes announced plans to make Black Panther film in 1992 to be made by Columbia Pictures but after script issues, the film was delayed, and Wesley Snipes moved on to Blade instead was a box office hit in summer 1998 as was the sequel in 2002 but the third film in 2005 disappointed.

In 2005 Marvel announced their first slate of films Captain America, The Avengers, Nick Fury, Black Panther, Ant-Man, Cloak & Dagger, Doctor Strange, Hawkeye, Power Pack, and Shang-Chi. Iron Man wasn’t part of the list at the time as new line Cinema had rights to the film when this deal was announced in April 2005 but two months later they acquired rights for Iron Man and Marvel fully financed the film themselves separate from this deal. Over years that followed Captain America, The Avengers, Nick Fury, Ant-Man, Doctor Strange, and Hawkeye all featured in Marvel Cinematic Universe films, but Black Panther was notably absent as the most well-known comic-book character of the rest.

DC has received much-deserved criticism for their DC Extended Universe films but was willing to take a risk making Wonder Woman years after Marvel had launched Black Widow character in Iron Man 2 but still hadn’t made a spinoff movie. Black Panther finally started shooting in January 2017 over a year after Wonder Woman started filming and as Captain Marvel there probably wouldn’t have been Black Panther movie had it not been for Wonder Woman showing Marvel executives that women can wear spandex and tights too and cinemagoers will want to see them.

As often with Marvel Cinematic Universe they give their characters soft launches in other films with Black Panther appearing first in 2016’s Captain America Civil War (was also the first appearance of Tom Holland as Spider-Man).

The teaser trailer was released in June and viewed 89m times in the first 24 hours and reaction was very positive; the trailer was released in October and a third trailer released in December.

Twitter announced On Monday Black Panther has been tweeted about more than 5 million times more than any other film this year so far it is also the biggest first-quarter presale ever for Fandango in its 18-year history but were similar claims for The Last Jedi last year it just means more are booking ahead which is often the cast for big event releases.

Black Panther currently has a 99% Rotten Tomatoes score; a month ago it was looking at opening with $100m which was always a low estimate as being the 18^th MCU film and being the continuation of the story arc that started with Captain America: Civil War its opening was always expected to open similar between Thor: Ragnarok $122m and Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 $146m. Black Panther would also play strongly to the African American audience who have been waiting to see a Black Panther ever since MCU was launched. It is now expected to open with $165m+ which is the kind of opening it was always likely to open. The big question is will race be an issue overseas while being a positive in the US.

• Early Man – Lionsgate

The stop-motion animated adventure comedy from Aardman Animations featuring the voices of Eddie Redmayne, Tom Hiddleston, Maisie Williams, and Timothy Spall and directed by Nick Park; received positive reviews 93% Rotten Tomatoes score and generated strong media coverage ahead of its release being an Aardman Animation film.

Lionsgate released Aardman Animations last film Shaun the Sheep Movie in August 2015 opened with $4.03m taking $19.36m.

Arthur Christmas opened November 2011 with $12.06m taking $46.46m and The Pirates! Band of Misfits opened April 2012 with $11.13m taking $31.05m both released by Sony.

Chicken Run was Aardman Animations biggest film in the US opened in June 2000 with $17.5m taking $106.83m, Wallace & Gromit: The Curse of the Were-Rabbit opened with $16.02m taking $56.11m in 2005 and Flushed Away opened in November 2006 with $18.81m taking $64.66m all three released by Dreamworks Pictures.

Early Man received positive reviews 83% Rotten Tomatoes but opening a week after Peter Rabbit and having a plot centred around football its going to be a hard sell especially after Paddington 2 also disappointed last month in the US despite receiving critical acclaim; an opening between Shaun the Sheep Movie $4.03m and Paddington 2 $11m is likely.