UK/US Box Office March 6th-8th 2020 week 10: Was it victim of Coronavirus or was Onward just a step backwards for Pixar?

 

 

1. Onward – £3,419,500 – NE

Took £800,000 from previews last weekend

Had the 437^th biggest opening between Glass and Paranormal Activity 3 (close to Hotel Transylvania 3, The Secret Life of Pets 2, The Smurfs 2 and Chicken Little) and 611^th biggest inflation inflated between Glass and Waterworld (close to Megamind, Dinosaur, The Rugrats Movie and Bee Movie).

Had the 19^th biggest Pixar opening between Monsters University and The Good Dinosaur; removing preview box office Onward had the worst opening ever in the UK for Pixar film below Cars and Cars 3. Onward was directed by Dan Scanlon who also directed Monsters University, he has had a long career at Disney beginning as an animator on 1998’s Pocahontas II: Journey To A New World.

78^th biggest animated opening between Hotel Transylvania 3 and The Smurfs 2 (close to Monsters University, Despicable Me, Hercules and Ice Age) and 94^th inflation inflated animated opening between Megamind and The Rugrats Movie (close to The Secret Life of Pets 2, Hotel Transylvania 3, Mulan and The Good Dinosaur).

While Monsters University had a disappointing opening in 2013, this was due to opening over a very hot weekend and close to Despicable Me 2, but due to opening at the start of the summer holidays playing strongly over the weeks after taking £29,768,407.  In comparison, Onward opens over a month before the Easter holidays and by the time the holidays start it will be joined by Peter Rabbit 2 and Trolls World Tour.

The question is did Onward have a disappointing opening as its an average Pixar film, as it did open similar to other average Pixar films The Good Dinosaur, Cars and Cars 3 or will the industry blame its performance on Coronavirus. 

On Friday both Cineworld and UK Cinema Association made statements saying Coronavirus was having no impact on cinema attendance so if it wasn’t Coronavirus why did Onward have the lowest opening for Pixar film in the UK?

22 Pixar films have taken almost £690m at the box office since Toy Story in 1996 and almost £890m inflation inflated.

As with 2015 and 2018 Disney are releasing two Pixar films this year with Soul opening in June but it faces tough competition from Minions: The Rise of Gru opening three weeks afterwards.

Pixar has one untitled film for release in 2021, two untitled in 2022 and one untitled In 2023 all expected to be original films as after the release of Toy Story 4 last year Pixar said it would be their last sequel for some time, but after Onward underperforming this could change?

Pixar films normally hold strongly so will be interesting to see how Onward holds this weekend against the arrival of four new releases but none of them is aimed at the Onward demographic.

While last years later including Avengers: Endgame, Aladdin, Toy Story 4 and The Lion King,  Frozen 2 and Star Wars: The Rise Of Skywalker was always going to be huge, Disney’s slate this year is much softer starting with Onward and Mulan reimagination at the end of the month.

The original animated film of Mulan wasn’t as big a box office success as other reimaginations Disney have made over the last decade, opening with £1,648,488 in October 1998 (£2,953,371 inflation inflated) taking £8,902,296 (£15,949,027 inflation inflated) it wasn’t among the biggest films of the year.

Last week MGM delayed No Time To Die to November and Universal Pictures pushed back Trolls World Tour a week and today Sony Pictures delayed Peter Rabbit 2 to August which gives Disney Easter holidays for Mulan that is if the Coronavirus doesn’t shutdown cinemas over the net few weeks or scare customers away.

In May Disney release Artemis Fowl which was delayed over 9 months and fans of the book aren’t very happy with the trailers, and The One and Only Ivan opens in August, but there has been almost nothing about the film released. Over the last decade, Disney has had little success from original films why they have concentrated on making properties. In May currently, Black Widow opens, and The Eternals opens in November, but are rumours Black Widow could be delayed if Coronavirus gets worse and Mulan underperforms. 

It’s surprising after having such strong slates of films over the last 5 years that Disney’s 2020 slate feels so soft, while their rivals who seemed to wave the white flag last year all have much stronger slates.

2. The Invisible Man – £1,538,985 – £5,002,167

Down 28.8% in its second weekend; The Invisible Man held strongly in its second weekend despite Coronavirus fears (while new releases opened lower than expected and other films on release dropped heavily) due to strong word of mouth and strong buzz

548^th biggest second weekend between Rango and The Social Network (close to The Conjuring 2: The Enfield Case, The Village, Looper and The Grudge) and 785th biggest inflation inflated the second weekend between Transformers: The Last Knight and Memoirs of a Geisha (close to Dead Again, Annabelle, The Conjuring 2: The Enfield Case and Blade: Trinity).

61^st biggest horror between Insidious: The Last Key and The Wolfman (close to 28 Weeks Later, The Ring Two, Dracula Untold and The Omen) and 74th biggest inflation inflated horror between Resident Evil: Afterlife and Dracula Untold (close to The Hills Have Eyes, Hereditary, Poltergeist and Ouija).

117^th biggest Universal Pictures between Kick-Ass 2 and The Wolfman (close to Mama, The First Purge, Dracula Untold and The Purge: Anarchy)

Second weekends

2017’s Get Out dropped 36.7% taking £1,366,829 and £4,864,838 48.4% of £10,053,463

2017’s Split dropped 21.5% taking £2,000,319 and £6,030,395 54.7% of £11,018,069

2018’s A Quiet Place dropped 29.2% taking £1,907,585 and £6,350,119 53.8% of £11,801,912

2019’s Us dropped 38.8% taking £1,692,205 and £6,080,519 67.1% of £9,071,603

Comparisons have been made with 1991’s Sleeping With The Enemy dropped 35.1% taking £703,223 (£1,675,667 inflation inflated) and £1,787,091 taking £9,230,825 (£21,995,563 inflation inflated).

2014’s Dracula Untold dropped 50.5% in its second weekend taking £847,958 and £3,519,514  (was originally the start of the Dark Universe)

2017’s The Mummy dropped 64.8% in its second weekend taking £1,175,952 and £6,110,834 (second attempt to reboot Dark Universe) taking £8,744,766 (in comparison the 1999 reboot of The Mummy after opening with £3,771,429 (£6,467,866 inflation inflated) dropped 32.8% in its second weekend £2,535,195 (£4,347,769 inflation inflated) taking £8,482,144 of £17,362,781 (£29,776,551 inflation inflated).

The highest-grossing Blumhouse Pictures films are 2017’s Split taking £11.4m; 2010’s Paranormal Activity 2 £11.01m; 2019’s Glass £10.98m; Paranormal Activity 3 £10.7m; 2017’s Get Out £10.4m.

Jason Blum was criticised on Twitter for revealing almost the whole plot of the film in the trailer and just like the Black Christmas trailer that ruined the big twist at the end, Jason Blum responded saying “I wish we didn’t have to do that but there is almost no other way to tear people away from Netflix and all the great choices they have at home.    So you have my sincerest apologies and maybe in future your idea to watch our trailers after you’ve seen our movies is a good one!”

3. Military Wives –  £968,468   – NE

Taking £78,161 from previews; on Monday Military Wives climbed to #1 showing that as often happens the grey-pound will wait to see films during the week rather than the weekend.

Opened similar to other British feel-good films including 2019’s Fisherman’s Friends (£1,154,865) and Blinded By The Light (£966,095); 1999’s Waking Ned Devine (£911,901); 2013’s Sunshine on Leith (£770,239); 1999’s Little Voice (£761,094).

While 40% less than 1997’s The Full Monty (£1.6m and £2.9m inflation inflated); 45% less than 2003’s Calendar Girls (£1.76m and £2.86m inflation inflated) and 57% less than 2012’s The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel (£2.22m).

Director Peter Cattaneo also directed The Fully Monty but since hasn’t had much success with Lucky Break (taking £1.3m) and The Rocker (2008’s The Rocker opened £217,745 taking £401,231) having more success on the screens with Rev and Flack.

Fox Searchlight acquired The Full Monty after Film 4 and Miramax had turned it down as they had a similar British film Brassed Off (Brassed Off took £2.8m a year earlier in the UK), Fox Searchlight knew they had a hit on their hands screening the film very early and holding many screenings months before opening in August. But of course, no one expected the film to be the success it became after opening with a decent £1.6m. but went on to take £52.2m in the UK playing in cinemas for over 6 months, taking $258m worldwide and nominated for four Oscars.

The difference today is Military Wives will need to find its audience in its opening weekend or exhibitors will be pulling it quickly with Misbehaviour and Radioactive opening over the following two weeks.  Do often wonder if The Full Monty opened today would exhibitors give it a chance, or would they quickly pull it if it didn’t open strongly in its opening weekend.

The Full Monty opened #1 the end of August with £1.6m with the big new release action thriller Conspiracy Theory opening third with £1.35m and held #1 for 6 weeks before Hercules moved it into second for a week but then returned back to #1 for another 3 weeks until Face/Off, The Full Monty stayed in the top 10 for 21 weeks.

One thing I believe that helped The Full Monty apart from it being a fun popcorn film was it opened the weekend Princess Diana died and it became the film people turned to for cheering up, with all the gloom and doom over coronavirus you would have thought Military Wives would be a perfect tonic.

The only film to come close over the last decade was The Greatest Showman, stayed in the top 10 for 18 weeks only Mamma Mia! in recent years has stayed in cinemas for longer. It became this generation Titanic as fans came back to see it again and again while the soundtrack was #1 for 21 non-consecutive weeks in the UK. Critics were quite snotty about the film but as Barnum is asked in the film “does it bother you that everything your selling is fake” his reply “do the smiles seem fake” The Greatest Showman does to quote the famous Ronseal advert What it says on the tin.

In its 18th weekend took £300,947 and £45,974,245 which was comparable with Titanic released 20 years earlier took £199,618 in its 18th weekend its inflation inflated box office would be a similar £374,000. While The Full Monty took £394,620 in its 18th weekend in the top 10 and £228,368 in its last weekend (21st week).

Ever since The Full Monty was released in 1997 there have been many feelgood British films that was seen to be the next, but none have managed to come close to its success with Calendar Girls and Bend It Like Beckham is the most successful. Often wonder if The Full Monty was to be released today if it would be a similar success or be given the time to find its audience.

As with many of these feel-good films Lionsgate have had a strong talker screening program to build up word of mouth, but never know if the film will find an audience, as so many films have strong talker screening programs, but people don’t seem to talk about the films and then don’t find an audience.

Cinema was very different in the 90s as there were far fewer films being released and exhibitors would give films a chance to find an audience. This allowed films to play for months instead of weeks, last year there were over 900 films released, three times the amount of films released in the 90s. This means exhibitors will pull films after a week if they don’t perform as expected and with four new releases this weekend Military Wives will likely be losing many performances in its second weekend.

It was surprising Lionsgate decided to give Military Wives its widest ever release 671 screens as films like Military Wives aren’t normally films people rush out to see on opening weekend, they are films see after word of mouth spreads.

Over the years since many other feel-good British films have tried to repeat the same formula including 2000’s Billy Elliot, 2001’s Blow Dry, 2002’s Bend It Like Beckham, 2003’s Calendar Girls, 2005’s Kinky Boots and Mrs. Henderson Presents, 2007’s Once, 2009’s Slumdog Millionaire, 2010’s Made in Dagenham, 2011’s Chalet Girl, 2014’s Pride and Once Chance, 2016’s Eddie the Eagle but not come anywhere near the success of The Full Monty.

In 2014 Lionsgate UK suggested that films should reflect the budget of the films so tickets for a British film would be cheaper than a US blockbuster, exhibitors at the time were including a blockbuster tax for the big films,  but then all others were a standard price. As the problem the industry has failed to deal with is while box office might grow year on year the divide between the megamovies and the rest has grown. Last year there were over 900 films released by over 90% of the box office came from the 100 biggest films.

Exhibitors have brought in dynamic ticket pricing in many cinemas in the UK but prices go up from an already high level, despite industry claims ticket prices have dropped over the last two years the majority are still going up and cinemagoers have become much more selective with the films they pay to see and those they wait to see unless they have subscription cinema.

March/April has become a regular time to release British films with Military Wives, Misbehaviour Radioactive, The Secret Garden, Dream Horse, A Promising Young Woman, Our Ladies and Blithe Spirit opening within 8 weeks this year.

Some of the successful feel-good British films include 2000’s Billy Elliot, 2002’s Bend It Like Beckham, 2003’s Calendar Girls, 2005’s Kinky Boots and Mrs. Henderson Presents, 2007’s Once, 2009’s Slumdog Millionaire, 2010’s Made in Dagenham, 2011’s Chalet Girl, 2014’s Pride and Once Chance.

While the grey-pound is normally very strong, but they do prefer going to the cinema during the week rather than the weekend, but they are probably the demographic that would probably decide against going to the cinema with Coronavirus.  

The Full Monty opened with £1.6m but held very strongly for months afterwards, the difference today is Military Wives will need to find its audience in its opening weekend or exhibitors will be pulling it quickly with Misbehaviour and Radioactive opening over the following two weeks.  Do often wonder if The Full Monty opened today would exhibitors give it a chance, or would they quickly pull it if it didn’t open strongly in its opening weekend.

Predictably exhibitors will on Friday already drop many screenings of Military Wives with four new released this weekend including Misbehaviour, showing again that exhibitors don’t give these films any time to find an audience anymore and films like The Full Monty wouldn’t be the success it was in 1997 today.

4. Sonic the Hedgehog –  £951,103   – £18,459,137

Down 50.9% in its fourth weekend

2019’s Pokemon Detective Pikachu dropped 34% in its fourth weekend taking £664,469 and £12,492,311 93.5% of £13,368,175.

Sonic The Hedgehog and Dolittle will likely come short of last year’s half-term films How to Train Your Dragon 3 (£19.71m) and The Lego Movie 2 (£18.9m) lower than previous February half-term children’s films. 

Has overtaken box office of recent February half-term films  

2018 – Coco £18.1m; 2018’s Alvin and the Chipmunks: The Road Chip £15.9m: 2015’s Shaun The Sheep Movie took £13.7m; 2014’s Mr. Peabody and Sherman took £13.55m; 2018’s Early Man £11.2m

But coming short to 2014’s The Lego Movie £32.9m; 2017’s Sing £28.84m; 2017’s The LEGO Batman Movie; £26.77m;; 2015’s Big Hero 6 £20.2m;  

17th biggest Paramount Pictures film in the UK between Transformers: Age of Extinction and Mission: Impossible – Ghost Protocol and 23rd biggest inflation inflated between Tintin: Secret of the Unicorn and Puss in Boots.

Sonic The Hedgehog has become the biggest film based on computer game overtaking last year’s Detective Pikachu taking £13,368,17; 2016’s The Angry Birds Movie £10,408,235; 2010’s Prince of Persia £8,829,805; 2018’s Rampage £8,695,722; 2017’s Assassin’s Creed £7,996,695; 2018’s Tomb Raider £7,739,354 and 2016’s Warcraft: The Beginning £5,947,228.

292^nd biggest film in the UK between Angels and Demons and Fast Five (close to The Lego Movie: The Second Part, How to Train Your Dragon 3, Happy Feet and Coco) and 468^th biggest inflation inflated between The Last Samurai and The Departed (close to The Last Samurai, The Living Daylights, Coming To America and Matilda).

Following Sonic the Hedgehog Paramount Pictures release A Quiet Place Part II opens in three weeks’ time and then The SpongeBob Movie: Sponge on the Run, Top Gun: Maverick, Infinite, Without Remorse, Snake Eyes, The Tomorrow War and Coming 2 America.

5. Parasite – £529,550   – £11,460,342

Down 49.4% in its fifth weekend

Parasite has become the biggest foreign-language films in the UK ahead of 2004’s The Passion of the Christ (£11.1m and £18m inflation inflated) overtaking 2000’s Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon (£9.37m) and £15.5m inflation inflated)

Parasite is also the 6th biggest film this year after 1917 (£42.84m); Sonic the Hedgehog (£17.21m); Bad Boys For Life ( £15.7m); Dolittle (£15.18m); The Gentlemen (£11.53m)

525^th biggest film in the UK between The Smurfs 2 and XXX (close to The English Patient, Leon, Bram Stokers Dracula and Unbreakable) and 750^th biggest inflation inflated between Watchmen and Beetlejuice (close to Philomena, The Iron Lady, The Grand Budapest Hotel and Road to Perdition).

Parasite has become the biggest Best Picture Oscar winner since 2014’s 12 Years A Slave (£20,027,551) and currently 11^th biggest since Titanic between The Departed and Green Book.

Parasite is currently the 6th biggest film this year after 1917 (£43.43m); Sonic the Hedgehog (£18.45m); Bad Boys For Life ( £15.95m); Dolittle (£15.69m); The Gentlemen (£11.53m).

Curzon will release a black and white version of the film in the coming weeks which had its UK premiere at the Glasgow Film Festival

Bong Joon Ho said about the black and white version “I’m sure everyone will have a different opinion about this version. Personally, I think all the characters look even more poignant, and that the distinctions between the three different spaces where the families live, with all the shades of grey, are even more tragic.”

It’s hard to find any comparisons to Parasite with other foreign-language films that’s because it’s not playing like a foreign-language film as it broke out to mainstream audiences from the start becoming that must-see Best Picture Oscar winner. There are similarities to 2017 with Parasite as for weeks up to BAFTAs and Oscars 1917 was the favourite to win Best Picture as La La land was in 2017 which was one of the reasons why it had the success it did, but then Moonlight won

At the Golden Globe’s Bong Joon Ho said: “Once you overcome the 1-inch-tall barrier of subtitles, you will be introduced to so many more amazing films.” This follows on from similar comments last year from Alfonso Cuarón after winning Best Foreign-Language Oscar for Roma saying, “I grew up watching foreign-language films and learning so much from them — films like Citizen Kane, Jaws, Rashomon, The Godfather and Breathless.”

In 2002 131 foreign language films were released in the UK 38% of the films released taking 2.2% of the yearly box office with Y Tu Mama Tambien taking £1.74m was the biggest foreign language film of the year.

Over the following years, the number of foreign language films released has more than doubled but its box office share and its box office hasn’t grown, so similarly to the growth of Event Cinema much of this is due to the number of titles released with box office shared more rather than audience growth.

In 2017; 349 foreign language films were released in the UK taking £28.6m 45.9% % of the films released taking 2.1% of the yearly box office; The Handmaiden taking £1.5m was the biggest foreign language film of the year.

In 2016 368 foreign language films were released in the UK; 44.8% of all film releases, but only took 2.4% of the box office gross, more foreign-language films are being released than ever before, but they are cannibalizing themselves. In 2004 there were 259 films released in the UK but last year there were over 900, but the number of screens in the UK hasn’t grown nearly as much which means box office cannibalization.

The big question is will Parasite be a one-off for foreign-language films or will major exhibitors book more in the future as away from Parasite there are hundreds of other foreign-language films released in the UK this year but the majority will be released in a handful of screens and its unlikely any more will plan in non-art-house cinemas.

UK box office in detail

This weekend’s top 10 box office took £9,259,950 up 0.1% from last weekend £9,249,286

The weekend admissions 1,284,560 down 1.7% from last weekend 1,306,396

16 films opened at weekend taking (£5,404,811); Onward 63.3% (£3,419,500); Military Wives 17.9% (£968,468); Fantasy Island 7.2% (£392,857); remaining 13 films shared 11.5% (£623,986);

Top three took 64% (£5,926,953) of the top 10; Onward 36.9% (£3,419,500); The Invisible Man 16.6% (£1,538,985); Military Wives 10.4% (£968,468); 

Down 46.2% from 2019; (17,220,357); Captain Marvel (£12,750,000); The Sleeping Beauty – Bolshoi Ballet 2019 (£176,849); Everybody Knows (£118,080); Miss Bala (£18,832); #1 Captain Marvel £12,750,000 1st week 655 screens (74.1% of top 10)

Down 3.7% from 2018: (£9,614,433); You Were Never Really Here (£288,344); Gringo (£215,029); Walk Like a Panther (£91,333); Wonder Wheel (£42,976); #1 Black Panther £2,931,682 4^th week 585screens 22% drop (30.5% of top 10)

Down 32.8% from 2017: (£13,776,935); Kong: Skull Island (£6,230,997); La Traviata – Met Opera 2017 (Opera) (£323,284); Elle (£253,619); The Love Witch (£14,244); #1 Kong: Skull Island £6,230,997 1^st week 567 screens (45.2% of top 10)

Down 22.9% from 2016: (£12,014,397); Kung Fu Panda 3 (£4,771,131); The Divergent Series: Allegiant (£1,838,019); The Witch (£447,626); Anomalisa (£223,387); The Ones Below (£6,971); #1 Kung Fu Panda 3 £4,771,131 1^st week 583 screens (39.7% of top 10)

Down 24.9% from 2015; (£8,258,448); Chappie (£1,015,058); Still Alice (£401,565); Unfinished Business (£394,177); Kill The Messenger (£57,666); #1 The Second-Best Exotic Marigold Hotel £1,957,256 2^nd week 604 screens 48% drop (23.7% of top 10)

Up 12.1% from 2014: (£10,284,056); 300: Rise of an Empire (£2,761,612); The Grand Budapest Hotel (£1,532,239); Escape from Planet Earth (£395,392); #1 300: Rise of an Empire £2,761,612 1^st week 487 screens (26.8% of top 10)

Up 9.7% from 2013 (£8,440,254); Oz: The Great and Powerful (£3,712,948); Side Effects (£904,746); Parker (£568,777); Guilt Trip (£432,068); Robot & Frank (£106,346); Broken (£68,423); Fire with Fire (£19,201); The Princess Bride (Re) (£11,273); #1 Oz: The Great and Powerful £3,712,948 1^st week 530 screens (44% of top 10)

Up 8.2% from 2012 (£8,558,124); John Carter (£1,960,414); The Raven (£299,254); Bel Ami (£296,341); Cleanskin (£27,405); #1 John Carter £1,960,414 1^st week 456 screens (22.9% of top 10)

Down 0.1% from 2011 (£9,268,880); Rango (£1,638,613); The Adjustment Bureau (£1,395,715); Unknown (£1,356,345); Ironclad (£52,470); The Tempest (£8,445); #1 Rango £1,638,613 1^st 470 screens (17.7% of top 10)

Down 37.4% from 2010: (£14,805,412); Alice in Wonderland (£10,555,220); Legion (£212,328); Case 39 (£183,088); Ondine (£102,138); #1 Alice in Wonderland £10,555,220 1^st week 533 screens (71.3% of top 10)  

Down 14.1% from 2009; (£10,781,295); Watchmen (£3,243,001); The Young Victoria (£1,016,053); The Secret of Kells (£25,657); #1 Watchmen £3,243,001 1^st week 419 screens (30.1% of top 10)

Up 41.3% from 2008; (£6,550,070); Vantage Point (£1,454,636); The Other Boleyn Girl (£954,994); The Game Plan (£767,143); In Bruges (£343,760); Diary of the Dead (£201,571); #1 Vantage Point £1,454,636 1^st week 350 screens (22.2% of top 10)

Up 31.7% from 2007: (£7,028,900); Norbit (£1,962,913); Becoming Jane (£649,323); Outlaw (£582,434); #1 Norbit £1,962,913 1^st week 368 screens (27.9% of top 10)

Up 60.7% from 2006; (£5,762,109); The Hills Have Eyes (£1,126,575); The Proposition (£205,594); Two for the Money (£165,003); #1 The Hills Have Eyes £1,126,575 1^st week 331 screens (19.5% of top 10)

Up 106% from 2005 (£4,495,350); Boogeyman (£788,439); The Flight of the Phoenix (£292,012); Harold & Kumar Get the Munchies (£284,050); #1 Boogeyman £788,439 1^st week 318 screens (17.5% of top 10)

Up 65% from 2004 (£5,614,199); 21 Grams (£582,951); Torque (£503,318); Uptown Girls (£304,525); Suzie Gold (£65,089); #1 Along Came Polly £1,572,126 2^nd week 385 screens 30% drop (28% of top 10)

Up 19.8% from 2003 (£7,726,649); Maid In Manhattan (£2,424,584); Far From Heaven (£452,369); #1 Maid In Manhattan £2,424,584 1^st week 422 screens (31.4% of top 10)

Up 28.5% from 2002 (£7,202,296); We Were Soldiers (E757,760); Hearts in Atlantis (£110,793); #1 Ocean’s Eleven £1,850,350 3-week #1 split 4^th week 437 screens 29% drop (25.6% of top 10)

Next weekend in 2019: (£11,537,481); Fisherman’s Friends (£1,154,865); What Men Want (£836,612); The Prodigy (£96,905); Ben Is Back (£82,204); #1 Captain Marvel £6,643,217 2^nd week 652 screens 48% drop (57.6% of top 10)

Also Opened

• Blumhouse’s Fantasy Island – Sony Pictures

Opened with £392,857 from 408 screens

Blumhouse teen horrors repeat the same formula of 90s horrors including Scream and I Know Wat You Did Last Summer featuring popular TV actors (with Lucy Hale in Fantasy Island and also starred in Truth or Dare previously was in TV series Pretty Little Liars), the difference was they were R rated/18 in the UK, while Blumhouse horrors are targetting younger audience.

Teen horrors always suffer at the box office in the UK as they get PG-13 certificates in the US but 15s in the UK like Happy Death Day, Truth or Dare, Happy Death Day 2U and Ouija. They perform well in the UK but find themselves without an audience in the UK as they are stuck in the middle without an audience.

It always surprised me that the BBFC didn’t keep 12 certificates along with the 12A as there are many films that need a higher corticate than 12A but don’t deserve a 15 as the cut off the film’s audience. Which was the problem previously before the 12-certificate launched in 1989 and released by 12A in 2002, while the 12 certificate is now only for video?

2017’s Happy Death Day opened with £998,388 taking £2,678,427

2018’s Truth or Dare opened with £931,250 taking £2,400,490

2019’s Happy Death Day 2Uopened with £735,454 taking £1,318,935

2014’s Ouija opened with £1,373,907 taking £3,207,638

2016’s Ouija: Origin of Evil opened with £779,626 taking £2,524,013

• The Photograph – Universal Pictures

Opened with £29,671 from 170 screens

Other Box Office News

Last week a day after advance booking opened for the new James Bond film No Time To Die it was announced by Eon that due to concerns over the Coronavirus its release would be delayed to November, and today it was followed by Sony Pictures announced Peter Rabbit 2 would be delayed from March 27^th to August 7^th.

Despite delaying the Chinese release of Mulan reimagination Disney haven’t surprisingly moved the release of Mulan in the rest of the world as it had its world premiere last night in the US with its UK premiere due next week.

Last Friday Cineworld said, “Given the impact that COVID-19 is having on the broader markets, we feel it is important to update our shareholders on current trading,” Cineworld said. “Thus far, we have not observed any material impact on our movie theatre admissions due to COVID-19. Following an increase in admissions in the first two months of the year against the same period in the previous year, we continue to see good levels of admissions in all our territories, despite the reported spread of COVID-19.” Immediately after that statement was released their shares dropped 24% and since a major shareholder has sold a large number of shares in Cineworld.

Also on Friday the UK Cinema Association “It’s definitely a developing picture, but we’re not seeing any discernible impact in terms of cinema admissions across the piece,”

And then Onward has the worst opening for a Pixar film in the UK and despite huge media coverage Military Wives opens softer than many expected, both probably have very little to do with Coronavirus, but the market is nervous as is the public as seen with the panic buying of toilet paper, pasta, rice and chocolate.

Cinemas in China closed in January and have also closed since in South Korea, Italy, Spain and France and are concerns that cinemas might be forced to close in the UK and the US, but away from Coronavirus cinemas aren’t the most hygienic places as over the years have been many reports of high levels of bacteria and only need to go to the cinema and see how many people go to the toilet and then don’t wash they hands and then open the toilet door, and then auditorium door, holding the safety railings and armrests before putting their seats on the seat in front.

We will see over the coming weeks if Coronavirus is really effecting cinemagoers with the release of A Quiet Place 2 and Mulan and if holding their ground Disney beat their competition with Mulan having the market to itself with Trolls World Tour opening three weeks later.

 

UK Box Office Top 10

US Box office

• Onward – Disney

Opened with $39.11m; received positive reviews (86% Rotten Tomatoes) and A- CinemaScore

Took $2m from Thursday midnights comparable to Dumbo ($2.6m), Monsters University ($2.6m), Moana ($2.6m), Zootopia ($1.7m) and Big Hero 6 ($1.25m).

Had the second-lowest opening for Pixar film ever (1995’s Toy Story opened with $29,140,617; $62,769,559 inflation inflated);

Onward was tracking to open with $45m that would be Pixar’s 20th biggest opening or third worst ahead of only The Good Dinosaur and Toy Story (released 25 years ago would be $63m inflation inflated); similar to Coco ($50,802,605) and Ratatouille $47,027,395 ($64m inflation inflated).

Normally a Disney film will open up to 20% more than early tracking but Onward opened slightly under, the problem is that Onward has been seen as an average Pixar film from reviews doing everything you have come to expect from a Pixar film pulling at the heartstrings, but no with Disney+

Will studios move more films after Onward opened lower than expected as surely studios and exhibitors are going to use Coronavirus as an excuse for all underperforming films over the next few months.. on Friday Cineworld said COVID19 wasn’t an issue but shares still dropped 24%. This is unless cinemas are seen taking preventative measures to keep customers safe as implementing schemes as are currently happening in Asia and Italy seating people a metre apart and not seating people close together as cinemas aren’t the most hygienic at the best of times

Over the past decade Pixar made 11 films but 7 were sequels and after releasing Toy Story 4 last year they said it would be their last sequel for a while. In the previous decade, Pixar made 7 films all original and Pixar were seen as the most creative studio in Hollywood. Pixar was acquired by Disney in 2006, at the time Ratatouille, Wall-e and Up were in various stages of production so Toy Story 3 was probably the first wholly made by Disney.

Early reaction to Onward has said it’s a sweet and emotional adventure but it’s missing the usual Pixar magic, as with all Pixar films it tugs at the heartstrings as they cover serious emotional topics from a grown-up, moving home, the loss of a parent and they pay on multiple levels from children to grandparents. As with many of the previous Pixar films it was inspired by the director’s dad dying when he was younger and his relationship with his brother.

The first teaser trailer was screened with Toy Story 4 in July, trailer released with Maleficent: Mistress of Evil in October and second trailer released in December with Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker. Onward will have the trailer for Pixar’s second original film this year Soul opening in June.

22 Pixar films have taken $6bn in the US ($7.5bn inflation inflated) and almost $14.5bn worldwide;

Opened with $28m from 47 territories; UK $4.4m; France $3.3m; Mexico $3m; Russia $2.1m; Spain $1.9m; Germany $1.9m; Brazil $1.1m

• The Invisible Man – Universal Pictures

Dropped 46.3% in its second weekend taking $15.13m and $52.67m

Second weekends

2017’s Get Out dropped 15.4% taking $28.23m and $79.97m 44.3% of $176.04m ($255.4m WW)

2017’s The Mummy dropped 54.1% taking $14.51m and $57.12m 71.2% of $80.22m ($409.23m WW)

2019’s Us dropped 53.3% taking $33.22m and $127.84m 73.1% of $175.08m ($255.18m WW)

Comparisons have been made with Julia Roberts 1991’s Sleeping With The Enemy (dropped 7% in its second weekend taking $12.82m ($28.57m inflation inflated) and $31.13m ($69.3m inflation inflated) taking $101.59m ($243m inflation inflated) and $175m worldwide ($470m inflation inflated).

2000’s The Hollow Man dropped 50.6% taking $13.04m and $50.3m taking $73.2m and $190,21m worldwide.

1,645^th biggest film between Diary of a Wimpy Kid: Rodrick Rules and Beethoven’s 2^nd; 2,538^th biggest inflation inflated between Tough Guys and Porky’s Revenge; 216^th biggest Universal Pictures film between Kicking and Screaming and Beethoven’s 2^nd; 477^th biggest R-rated film between Four Weddings and a Funeral and The Strangers; 82^nd biggest horror between The Devil Inside and Insidious Chapter 3.

Universal Pictures first attempt to reboot their Monsters Universe was 2014’s Dracula Untold ($70m budget) opening with $23.51m taking $56.28m and $217.12m; their second attempt was 2017’s The Mummy opening with $31.68m taking $80.22m and $409.23m and The invisible Man was expected to be a sequel starring Johnny Depp, but it wasn’t big enough a success for Universal Pictures to continue the Dark Universe.

The timing of The Invisible Man opening days after Harvey Weinstein was found guilty of rape will make the film play like a thriller rather than a horror having themes of gaslighting and abuse telling the story from the women’s point of view. As horrors Get Out and Us being a social horror will likely gold stronger than a normal horror that opens big and drops big, being a very different film than it was originally conceived as part of the Dark Universe.

While Universal Pictures have had mixed success with their high-budget films recently including Cats and Dolittle Blumhouse Productions continues to make as part of their 10-year production deal with the studio a steady slate of low budget successes.

The Invisible Man has a budget of only $7m a fraction of the budget of 2017’s The Mummy and the originally planned version of The Invisible Man that was to star Johnny Depp and will be hugely more successful and will surely see the planned The Invisible Women sequel go into production very soon.

Took $17.3m from 47 territories $45.6m total internationally and $98.3m worldwide; UK at $6.6m; France $4.1m; Mexico $4m; Australia $3.6m; Spain $2.3m; 1,652^nd biggest film worldwide between Evolution and Predator; 211^th biggest Universal Pictures worldwide between Contraband and Rush.

• The Way Back – Warner Bros

Opened with $8.17m; received positive reviews (88% Rotten Tomatoes) and B+ CinemaScore

Opened with $640k from 14 territories

• Sonic The Hedgehog – Paramount Pictures

Dropped 52.8% in its fourth weekend taking $7.7m and $140.52m; 2^nd biggest film based on computer game between Pokémon Detective Pikachu and Lara Croft: Tomb Raider.

2019’s Detective Pikachu dropped 48.2% in its fourth weekend taking $6.95m and $137.6m 95.5% of $144.1m and $431.7m worldwide.

420^th biggest film in the US between The Blair Witch Project and Deep Impact; 855^th inflation inflated film between Scent of a Woman and District 9 and 54^th biggest Paramount Pictures film between Megamind and Deep Impact.

Took $12m from 62 territories and $154.8m total internationally and $265.5m worldwide; UK $23.9m; Mexico $17.4m; France $14.7m; Russia $10.1m; Brazil $9.6m; Germany $8.7m; Australia $7.2m; (still to open in Japan and China)

503^rd biggest film worldwide between Resident Evil: Afterlife and Ghostbusters (1984); 9^th biggest computer game worldwide between Resident Evil: Afterlife and Tomb Raider (2018); 96^th biggest family film worldwide between Miss Peregrine’s Home for Peculiar Children and G-Force and 63^rd biggest Paramount film worldwide between Shutter Island and Coming to America.

• The Call Of The Wild – 20th Century Fox/Disney

Dropped 49.4% in its third weekend taking $6.76m and $57.24m

If it wasn’t for its $100m+ budget The Call of the Wind could have been a moderate success for the studio but the crazy decision to make the dog CGI made the film look fake and make it impossible to turn a profit and continue the list of failures the studio has had since Disney acquired 20^th Century Fox.

About 30 years ago Disney made several films based on Jack London novels including White Fang with a budget of $14m they were moderately successful and saw them make video sequels to several of them. While Disney also has had much success over the last decade from DisneyNature making nature films with real animals, so a CGI Buck was always a strange choice.

The switch from animation to live-action is often quite challenging as seen previously with Andrew Stanton directing several Pixar films and then flop John Carter and then went back to animation directing Finding Dory. Brad Bird had more success with Mission Impossible: Ghost Protocol but then made flop Tomorrowland and then directed The Incredibles 2.

1993’s Homeward Bound: The Incredible Journey took $41.83m; 1994’s Iron Will took $21.1m; 2000’2 My Dog Skip took $34.13m; 2005’s Because of Winn-Dixie took  $32.64m; 2006’s Eight Below took $81.61m; 2017’s A Dog’s Purpose took $64.5m

1,489^th biggest between The Whole Nine Yards and The Blues Brothers; 2,374^th biggest inflation inflated between Shadowlands and Betrayed;

Took $4.8m from 47 territories $42.1m total and $99.6m worldwide; France $7.7m; Mexico $3.7m; UK $3.4m; Russia $3m; Spain $2.5m; Germany $1.8m; Indonesia $1.6m; Australia $1.4m; Japan $1.3m; Italy $1.2m; 1,629^th biggest worldwide between Street Fighter and Nacho Libre.

• Emma – Focus Features

Up 314.6% in its third weekend adding 1,468 screens taking $4.8m and $6.69m total; received positive reviews (85% Rotten Tomatoes) and B CinemaScore

Jane Austen’s adaptations on the small and big screen have been hugely popular over the years so it’s no surprise we have another adaptation of Emma 25 years after also having another adaptation of Louisa May Alcott’s Little Women as even with original films studios are looking for an inbuilt audience.

While Emma has received positive reviews many have said it’s too much of a straight adaptation of the novel unlike Little Women which was a new interpretation of the book as Clueless was a modern-day (90s) version 25 years ago. Over the years there have been many versions of Emma on the big and small screen and this Emma doesn’t stand out from them.

Over the years there have been many adaptations of Jane Austen novels on the big and small screen including 1995’s Persuasion (took $5.26m); and 1999’s Mansfield Park (took $4.77m).

1995’s Sense & Sensibility opened on platform $721,341 slowly expanding over 10 weeks taking $43.18m taking $134.58m

1996’s Emma opened on platform $240,649 from 9 screens slowly expanding over 7 weeks taking $22.32m

2005’s Pride & Prejudice opened on platform $2.8m expanding over 4 weeks taking $38.4m and $121.6m worldwide

Also having modernised version of Emma with 1995’s Clueless (opened $10.61m taking $56.63m; 2001’s Bridget Jones’s Diary and 2013’s Austenland modern-day versions of Pride & Prejudice

The success of Little Women (opening with $16.75m taking $103m to date and $170m worldwide should help Emma’s box office performance.

Took $1.5m from 27 territories and $14m total and $20.9m worldwide; the UK $7.9m; Australia $2.1m; expands further this week internationally.

 

UK Box Office Predictions

Despite Onward having a disappointing opening last weekend it will likely hold its own against the four new releases all targetting different demographics to Onward.

Onward will drop 45%-50% (opening included £800k previews) taking £2m+ which will keep it #1 till A Quiet Place Part II.

Bloodshot and The Hunt both have 5-day openings which will challenge The Invisible Man in second

The Hunt is expected to open similar to The Purge

The Purge opened May 31st, 2013 with £1,019,877 taking £3.36m

The Purge: Anarchy opened 25th July 2014 with £1,165,143 taking £4.43m

The Purge: Election Year opened 26th August 2016 with £807,803 taking £1.91m

The First Purge opened 6th July 2018 with £1,778,157 taking £6,085,402

While Bloodshot to open similar to 2019’s Hellboy opening with £989,562 taking £1,718,888 and 2007’s Ghost Rider opening with £1,851,897 taking £4,498,541

While despite Misbehaviour receiving strong media coverage over the last week it will struggle to find a wide audience as Military Wives did last weekend and next week’s Marie Curie biopic Marie Curie Radioactive.

Philippa Lowthorpe previously directed 2016’s Swallows and Amazons (opened with £676,175 taking £3,014,105) but is best known for directing TV dramas including The Crown and Three Girls.

2015’s Suffragette opened with £2,938,446 (including £1,394,771 previews) £1,543,675 (Fri-Sun) taking £10,600,616; the film had a much higher profile opening the London Film Festival.

Action comedy My Spy will also struggle to find an audience, the film opened in Australia in January receiving positive reviews despite being delayed from last August only plays matinees.

Dave Bautista’s last film Stuber flopped in July (opening with £211,274); starring in My Spy Dave Bautista is trying to find similar success Vin Diesel had with The Pacifier and John Cena with Playing With Fire and they all were trying to repeat what Arnold Schwarzenegger did 30 years ago with films like Kindergarten Cop. 

2005’s The Pacifier opened with £729,070 taking £4,075,641

2019’s Playing With Fire opened with £762,850 taking £2,597,261

Director Peter Segal has had a long career making comedies since 1994’s Naked Gun 33 1/3: The Final Insult and mostly recently directed STX’s Second Act (opening with £403,211).

This weekend box office will show if Onward opening suffered from Coronavirus or people just didn’t go to see it because it was an average Pixar film, saying that despite Onward being an average Pixar film its vastly better than either    Sonic The Hedgehog and Dolittle, but they opened far stronger and will both take more. The difference also is they opened at the start of half-term while Onward opened a month before the Easter holidays.

Opening in the UK Next Week

• A Quiet Place Part II– Paramount Pictures

Horror sequel to 2018’s A Quiet Place starring Emily Blunt, Cillian Murphy, Millicent Simmonds, Djimon Hounsou and John Krasinski and written and directed by John Krasinski. Paramount announced plans for a sequel weeks after the original film opened.

2018’s A Quiet Place opened with £2,696,892 taking £11,801,912

Director John Krasinski has recommended getting soda without ice as it can reverberate throughout the auditorium, he said recently “I just found out recently — soda with ice. Get your soda without ice,”… “I found out that the pickup, it’ll get you.”

• Radioactive – Studiocanal

A biographical drama about Marie Curie starring Rosamund Pike, Sam Riley and Anya Taylor-Joy and directed by Marjane Satrapi based on the graphic novel by Lauren Redniss.

Received its world premiere at the Toronto International Film Festival receiving mixed reviews had previews on International Women’s Day on Sunday the same day it had its UK premiere in London.

Despite generating strong media coverage as Military Wives and Misbehaviour have done over previous weeks Radioactive will struggle to find an audience as 2017’s Breathe did despite the London Film Festival opening with £535,675 from 463 screens two weeks later.

Opening in the US Next Week

• A Quiet Place Part II – Paramount Pictures

A Quiet Place was one of the first films made after Jim Gianopulos joined Paramount Pictures in 2017. A decade ago Paramount Pictures were one of the biggest studios and we’re the #1 studio in 2011, but became the worst studio after losing many of their key suppliers Marvel, Blumhouse Productions, Dreamworks and Dreamworks Animation to their rivals as well as swapped Indiana Jones rights for Jerry Bruckheimer in 2013 (his first film for the studio wasn’t until last year Gemini Man and Top Gun: Maverick this year).

Last year Paramount’s slate was mixed with films set up before he joined the studio but this year is his first complete slate Sonic The Hedgehog, The Lovebirds, The SpongeBob Movie: Sponge on the Run, Top Gun: Maverick, Infinite, Without Remorse, The Trial of the Chicago 7, Snake Eyes, Coming to America 2 and The Tomorrow War.

A 30-second trailer was screened with Black Christmas in December and was released online a week later with the full trailer released on January 1^st and a TV spot was shown during the Superbowl in February.

2018’s A Quiet Place opened with $50.2m taking $188.02m and $341m worldwide; it was expected to open with $20m; word of mouth for the original film ever since premiered at SXSW (SXSW was cancelled this year because of Coronavirus).

In January the sequel was predicted to open with $70m+ and in February was tracking to open between $55m-$60m; being compared to Us ($71.1m), Halloween ($76.2m), and It Chapter 2 ($91m)

The original film played strongly to women so trailers with The Invisible Man will help it, while early reaction has been positive and as with the first film, the use of sound is key to the film and is as tense as the original film.

A Quiet Place Part II was tracking to open between $55m-$60m a month ago if it holds to that opening it will show the opening of Onward wasn’t caused by the Coronavirus.