Albert Einstein’s quote sums up how many have dealt with Coronavirus over the past year repeating the same mistakes and expecting different results which predictably never happen.
Last weekend China had the biggest weekend ever in a single territory over the New Year their most lucrative weekend of the year for cinema, taking $775m more than doubled 2019’s Chinese New Year weekend The Wandering Earth opening with $180m with four other films opening in double figures with total weekend box office $360.6m; Monster Hunt 2 opened with $188m in 2018 with another four films opening with double figures taking $506.4m total. For the New Year week took $1.05bn.
The Chinese box office of $775m is more impressive as their cinemas still have a 75% capacity limit, when they reopened cinemas last July 181 days after closing (the UK reopened cinemas after 109 days) they had very strict safety measures including 25% capacity, masks mandatory, social distancing, temperature checks and the two-seat gap between customers. These very tight safety measures made customers feel safe going back to the cinema and a month later for the release of The Eight Hundred on August 28th they upped capacity to 50% and the film opened with $161m taking $277m. Over the six months, Chinese cinemas have been reopened Mulan was the only non-local release that has topped the chart, for one week in September.
Detective Chinatown 3 overtook Avengers: Endgame to become the biggest opening weekend ever in a single territory taking $424m. Detective Chinatown 3 took more on its opening day than the 7 weeks of 2021 US box office $86.4m. It opened with 2.5x more than Detective China 2 opening with $156m over 2018’s China New Year.
When 2019’s Avengers: Endgame had the previous biggest opening weekend $357.11m took 90.1% of the top 10 ($396.46m) and 89% of the total box office for the weekend ($402.087m) Captain Marvel was second taking only 2% of the top 10 ($8.31m).
In China Detective Chinatown 3 took only 55% of the total weekend box office ($775m); #2 Hi, Mom taking $195m; #3 A Writer’s Odyssey $53.4m; #4 Boonie Bears: The Wildlife $36.5m; #5 The YinYang Master $26.3m; #6 New Gods: Nezha Reborn $22.8m; #7 Endgame $13m;
The highest-grossing US film since cinemas reopened in China was Pixar’s Soul taking over $55m despite the film widely available illegally online as it was released on Disney+ elsewhere. This again proves that if it’s a film people want to see in the cinema they will see it in the cinema, this was similarly the case with Onward in the UK when cinemas reopened last July taking over “m at the box office despite being available to buy digitally, on DVD and Disney+.
Hollywood has seen that the Chinese New Year is the equivalent of Thanksgiving and Christmas rolled into one so they should have realised how serious China saw Coronavirus last January when cinemas were forced to close weeks before the New Year.
This should have immediately set of warnings to the rest of the world how serious Coronavirus could be and planned for worse case-scenarios and plans to deal with it in the rest of the world. Experts have been warning of pandemics for the last decade, 2014 President Obama spoke of putting infrastructure in place globally, to see it quickly, isolate it quickly and respond to it quickly. So that if, and when a new strain of flu, like Spanish Flu, crops up 5 years from now or a decade from now, we have invested.
President Obama put together a pandemic playbook in 2016 “Playbook for Early Response to High-Consequence Emerging Infectious Disease Threats and Biological Incidents.” To “in coordinating a complex U.S. Government response to a high-consequence emerging disease threat anywhere in the world.” This was left for President Trump who later refused it existed.
Hollywood should have realised how serious China believed COVID was closing cinemas ahead of the most lucrative weekend of the year, it would be like US cinemas forced to close over Thanksgiving.
The reason why Hollywood was in denial is they only look short-term, January started well as did February, surely, they saw what was happening globally with panic buying of toilet paper and box office in late February dropping off from 2019?
The failure of the West not to plan for worst-case scenarios cost the film industry billions and long-term damage that will affect Western BO until 2023 or later as it will be hard to get some customers back to the cinema as many are now perfectly happy to watch new releases at home.
Hollywood was in the best position to prepare for a pandemic having made ‘historical documents’ over the last century of all known and unknown natural and unnatural disasters. Matt Hancock was mocked recently for saying he changed his vaccination plans after seeing Contagion if he did that surely the film industry should have been way ahead of him as the film was released in 2011 as was The Rise of the Planet of the Apes two films that members of the film industry should have seen many years ago.
The West didn’t learn from Asia when cinemas reopened last summer, and they still won’t learn anything when they reopen in May. I know I’m a broken record, but exhibitors should have taken notice immediately after China closed their cinemas days before their New Year and planned for the worst-case scenario.
Many joked about Matt Hancock saying he changed his vaccination plans after seeing Contagion but as Steve Martin says in Grand Canyon ‘You know what your problem is, it’s that you haven’t seen enough movies – all of life’s riddles are answered in the movies.’
Last year Western exhibitors rushed to reopen cinemas months too early partly to do with believing in the Messiah would bring people back on mass to the cinema and partly to do with short-termism (affected most Western governments reopening too soon). China kept its cinemas closed for 3 months longer than the West and had a strategy behind opening a slate of local films instead of just one in the West. Also knew after SARS customers would be nervous about returning so had far stricter safety measures than the West.
Exhibitors should have used the cinema scene in Outbreak as the reason to have far stricter safety measures in cinemas.
Exhibitors talked a lot about how they could make customers feel comfortable returning to the cinema in many articles including articles in Deadline in April ‘Reopening Hollywood: How Theatre Chains Will Try to Restore Customer Confidence in Moviegoing’ but the CinemaSafe measures didn’t go anywhere nearly as far.
The other question is if exhibitors do plan to reopen cinemas in May will they be for vaccinated people only as #B117 is so infectious noticeably short exposure can lead to COVID. In Canada, many were infected being in the shop for only a few minutes. Canadian local health dept has shortened the exposure time to as little as 1 second if not wearing face masks. Masks would be needed to be always worn in cinemas by everyone with no exemptions for health or eating popcorn.
Predictably the same mistakes of the ending of the previous lockdowns are coming out, but after starting so well with the vaccine rollout the need is to hold the nerve rather than loosening restrictions now. COVID cases and deaths have dropped off this week and this has made many think that it’s time to open again, but it showing lockdown is working and as with the first lockdown cases were dropping into three figures in the days leading up to July 4 getting to their lowest levels for months.
At the time scientists warned it was too early and wanted lockdown to last another month, had it done so cases could have dropped into double figures as of July 21 there was 348 case. But restrictions were lifted on July 4th and then came to Eat Out to Help Out in August and then cases increased in September causing the second lockdown to happen, weeks after many wanted. This ended too quickly and lockdown 3 was always going to happen.
Now schools are likely to reopen on March 8th less than a month before Easter and then pubs and restaurants with outside spaces reopen in April and then reopening fully with social distancing restrictions by Whitsun holidays at the end of May. Government has got the country excited that ending is in sight predicting all over 50s given the first vaccine by April and all adults by June (first dose) the problem is that cases.
The way Cineworld bosses have led the company over the last few years before COVID and over the last year shouldn’t be rewarded as before buying Regal, Cineworld were the strongest performing exhibitor. All changed with buying Regal, agreeing to buy Cineplex, and then getting cold feet.
This was merely the start of the mismanagement as the way they handled COVID was abysmal, closing cinemas with staff finding out on social media were sacked. Then whilst begging for government handouts approve huge bonuses for their bosses and senior staff. Not singling out Cineworld as the industry handling of COVID has been poor, Matt Hancock used Contagion to guide him but feels like the film industry used the end of The Secret of My Success.
‘Mr. Davenport, we realize you’ll want to move some of your people…into the medium control positions here at Pemrose.
Naturally. What we’re concerned about, frankly, is the upper management positions. – Most of ’em will have to go.
– Oh, no. I see. But a handful of ’em..who have been so helpful…like yourselves, of course…will be stayin’ as long as you like Well, then I see nothing to stand in the way…’
This backs up everything I’ve said about the poor handling of COVID by exhibitors as Cineworld were also very quick to make their staff redundant, being announced on social media before telling their staff. Exhibitors pulled on the heartstrings in January with their Sunday Times letter saying, “UK cinema stands on the edge of an abyss,” it concludes… “We urgently need targeted funding support to ensure that future generations can enjoy the magic of cinema.” But at the same time was planning to give their bosses huge bonuses.
While no one could have predicted COVID, they could have predicted Cineworld and Odeon would be struggling as they overstretched themselves buying into markets having little growth this century. UK exhibitors were far too slow to react to COVID in March were in complete denial as 2020 started so strongly, two weeks before lockdown UKCA said ‘we’re not seeing any discernible impact in terms of cinema admissions’ despite Onward having one of the lowest openings for Pixar in the UK. Then reopened cinemas far too soon expecting ‘pent-up demand’ was never going to come as soon as they believed and won’t return for 6+ months as pubs and restaurants are unlikely to reopen in the UK till at least May.
As soon as China closed cinemas in January days before their most lucrative time of the year, surely Western exhibitors should have been concerned and planned for the worst-case scenario. Was COVID discussed at all at the UKCA conference in early March or were they too busy slapping each other’s backs about the strong start of the year? 2021 should have been a celebrational year being the 125th anniversary of commercial cinema but instead, it’s likely to be awake for 2020 due to industry’s short-termism that has damaged the industry for most of this century (since 2002).
As audiences won’t return in high numbers before the summer as all major films between now and at least May will be delayed. I’ve been following the Morning Consult Consumer Confidence index for months, why I’ve been saying for months NATO/UKCA has been in denial of the impact of COVID for a year believing people will come back on mass to the cinema within the next 6 months due to ‘pent-up’ demand.
China closed their cinemas days before their most lucrative time of the year, surely immediately after Western exhibitors should have planned for the worst-case scenario. COVID wasn’t discussed at the UKCA conference in early March as they were too busy slapping each other’s backs about the strong start of the year. 2021 should have been a celebrational year being the 125th anniversary of commercial cinema but instead, it’s likely to be awake for 2020 due to industry’s short-termism.
Predictably No Time to Die was delayed again to October 2021 and started a chain reaction of many others delayed now unlikely any major releases before June. Exhibitors were far too slow to react to COVID in March were in denial as 2020 started so strongly, two weeks before lockdown UKCA said ‘we’re not seeing any discernible impact in terms of cinema admissions’ despite Onward having one of the lowest openings for Pixar in the UK.
New York Governor Andrew Cuomo announced last week that New York City restaurants could open indoors with limited (25%) capacity for Valentine’s Day and plans for 10% capacity at large sporting events from the end of the month with all attendees needing to have a negative PCR test within 72 hours of the event along with masks, social distancing, temperature checks and assigned seating. Venues would need contact details of all attendees and locations would need to meet the air filtration requirements. Since last June Governor Cuomo has said that all malls and movie theatres would need MERV13 filters before they would be allowed to reopen.
It was surprising that Governor Andrew Cuomo announced a loosening of these restrictions as before this announcement he said plays to reopen the city would be slow. When asked in August said as most people believe movie theatres were “not that high on the list of essentials,” This does make sense as US economy was worth $21.43 trillion in 2019, retail $4.04 trillion (up 6.9%) restaurants $863bn (growing about 5% yearly). US box office $11.36bn was down from 2018. Broadway alone is bigger the movie theatres taking $14.7bn and supported 96,900 jobs in 2019, In December it was announced Broadway would be closed until at least June, so would expect movie theatres not to reopen before that.
During Boris Johnson’s press conference on February 15th, he said rapid tests would help nightclubs and theatres which had been unable to open last year. “I think that will be the route that we go down and that businesses will go down.” The Daily Telegraph reported that cinemas could require vaccine passports to prove they have had a vaccination before being able to purchase cinema tickets.
The following day Vaccines minister Nadhim Zahawi on BBC Breakfast was asked if owners of the hospitality sector could demand a vaccine certificate “if you wanted to go to the cinema”, he replied: “Well, I just think it is obviously up to businesses what they do.”
On rapid testing, the UK Cinema Association were predictably negative saying that tests would take 30 minutes and cost £3-4 each and asking cinemagoers to be tested on arrival was impractical and would see a 50% rise in ticket prices making a trip to the cinema prohibitively expensive. Many would suggestion exhibitors polices over the last 20 years have already done this, as while UKCA might claim average ticket prices is about £7 many cinemas in the UK are charging double and many in London more than triple, which already made going to the cinema more than a couple of times a year a middle-class activity. Were the UKCA purposely being obtuse as it was never suggested people would be tested at the cinema but instead, have PCR test 72 hours before going to the cinema, then put code in when purchasing tickets online, or scan in with QR code, as happening at sports events in New York City from February 23 with 10% capacity.
Surely even the UKCA could see them apart from the week Tenet opened (inflated with a 5-day opening) the 25 weeks cinemas had reopened from July to December were incredibly soft (less than 10% more levels) so much more would need to be done to get people to return to the cinema when they reopen, likely to be May. Much was made about the safety measures, but they felt like they were the least required, as it is, of course, a necessity to eat popcorn in cinemas masks could be taken off in auditoriums.
Exhibitors made much that no outbreak was traced back to a cinema, but that is probably more to do with how empty most cinemas were, and customers were distancing themselves further than exhibitors. There were many plans discussed in the media about what exhibitors needed to do to make customers feel comfortable returning to the cinema, I always refer back to Deadline’s article on April 20th “Reopening Hollywood: How Theatre Chains Will Try To Restore Customer Confidence In Moviegoing” https://deadline.com/2020/04/how-movie-theaters-will-reopen-coronavirus-exhibition-movies-1202912607/
The UKCA believe cinemas could reopen in April repeating the same mistakes of the last three lockdowns rushing to reopen cinemas far too quickly before the majority feel comfortable returning to the cinema. Studios have delayed all their April films but Black Widow, Cruella, Peter Rabbit 2 and F9 are still dated for May. Disney is still holding Black Widow to May 7, but if it were going to hold on to that date, there would have surely been a new Superbowl Tv spot as there was for F9, while can’t see Disney being willing to risk Black Widow as the canary in the coal mine. Over 80% of 2017’s The Fate of the Furious box office was international and almost 50% of that was from Asia, so would make much more sense for F9 to be the film that reopens cinema as even if the US isn’t fully reopening it will still be a huge hit internationally.
The article goes into detail about what is needed to make customers feel safe returning, all of the exhibitors in Asia implemented (and more) when they reopened but Western exhibitor’s safety measures always seem the least required. This to me was short-sighted, as there was always going to be a nervousness amongst non-cinephiles and Covidiots returning to the cinema. This would have gone had they felt they were putting their safety ahead of popcorn sales. Long before COVID cinemas have long had hygiene issues as many cinemagoers did wash their hands when they go to the toilet. BBC Watchdog in May 2018 reported traces of the bacteria salmonella and Listeria in a drink’s holders. To quote Contagion “The average person touches their face two or three thousand times a day, three to five times every waking minute. In between, we are touching doorknobs, water fountains, elevator buttons and each other.”
On Monday, February 22nd Boris Johnson will reveal reopening plans, over recent weeks many have speculated what these plans will be, if they will be a repeat of the unlocking of the first lockdown when he made a similar statement in May, with three stages of unlocking. He has said that it will be slower than last time as this must be the last lockdown.
There was speculation in The Telegraph today that lockdown won’t happen before daily cases drop below 1,000 but that’s almost double the level, they were days before the first lockdown ended. On July 3rd we’re 544 the day before lockdown ended, three days later they were 343 and a week later July 13th 398, but within a month cases had increased back to double. Scientists at the time wanted lockdown to last a few more weeks to get case numbers down and as seen by July 14th having 398 cases another few weeks could have brought cases right down.
There has been much speculation of how the country will come out of this lockdown with the latest rumours being that indoor pubs and restaurants will be low on the list to reopen and as cinema sees itself now as part of the hospitality sector rather than entertainment it will surely be low on the list too. While the cinema industry is vitally important for exhibitors, distributors, associated industries and of course employees it’s still only a tiny cog £1.27bn in the UK economy £2.21trillion, Retail £394bn (5% of the UK economy), Tourism £93bn, Restaurants £39.9bn; Clothing £26bn; Horticulture £24bn; Pubs £22bn; Beauty £7.9bn; Coffee Shops £10.1bn; Gym £5.1bn; Theatre £1.6bn; Cinema £1.27bn.
This year should have been a year of celebration as it was 25 years ago with National Cinema Day on Sunday, June 14th when all cinemas across the UK were £1 to celebrate the 100th anniversary of the first commercial cinema screening, this happened on February 21st 1896 at the Regent Street Cinema in London, there surely should have been some celebrational marketing campaign around the 125th anniversary this year that could have been part of a campaign to get people to get back into the cinemagoing habit.
Ever since cinemas closed for the first time last March exhibitors have talked a lot about the “pent-up demand” people have to go back to the cinema, Imax CEO Rich Gelfond was the latest to say so this week after China’s record-breaking New Year box office, saying “It tells you [that] when it’s safe to go outside and people want to go, they’re going to run to go to the movies” … “I think the only thing you can say is it’s pent-up demand,” … “I think they’re just happy to get out, and I think it foreshadows the rest of the world.” The key part of his comment is “when it’s safe to go outside” as exhibitors don’t seem to have learnt anything since March as they are reopening cinemas as soon as they are allowed, which is a long time before the majority will feel comfortable returning to the cinema. The difference this time around is that no film release date is locked in stone as Tenet was last summer.
Started this with an Albert Einstein quote and will end it with one “The world as we have created it is a process of our thinking. It cannot be changed without changing our thinking.”
cigarette burns and missed changeovers 