2020 global box office $12.4bn down 70% from 2019 ($42.5bn) with China replaced the US as #1 territory taking 22% ($2.7bn); the US 17.4% ($2.2bn) and the UK 3.5% ($439m); 2020 global box office was less than Disney’s 2019 global box office $13.2bn.
The three biggest films worldwide Bad Boys for Life $413m; Sam Mendes’ 1917 $385m; Christopher Nolan’s Tenet $362m. US box office was the lowest since 1981 ($918.31m $2.2bn inflation inflated Superman 2 was the biggest film of the year.
Sony Pictures was #1 studio in the US taking $492.7m ($683.5m internationally and $1.1bn globally) but Disney/Fox remained #1 globally taking $1.2bn down 90% from last year ($13.2bn) Disney/Fox took $441m in the US with most of that from 2019 releases and $816m internationally.
Universal #2 studio in the US taking $487m in the US and $543m internationally and $1bn worldwide; Warner Bros #4 $259m US and $817m internationally and $1bn worldwide
Despite Sonic the Hedgehog’s success Paramount Pictures are a long way from the other studios taking $183.8m in the US and $213.1m internationally and $0.4m globally. 2020 was to be a very important year for the studio with their strongest slate for years including A Quiet Place 2 and Top Gun: Maverick both delayed to this year as with MGM with No Time To Die it is vital for the studios long-term that they have a strong year. It’s incredible to think a decade ago Paramount Pictures were the #1 studio in the US and worldwide, but then they lost Marvel to Disney and Dreamworks Animation to 20th Century Fox going from the biggest studio to the lowest ranking studio where they stayed for most of the last decade.
ComScore reported 2020 box office £322.92m down 76% from 2019’s £1.35bn, but ComScore includes Ireland box office which added £25m+ to the total so the total box office for the year was £296.71m down 76.3% from 2019, less than £5m was added to the box office from week 37 (September 13th) when UK box office was £294m. The lowest box off since 1990 (£273.41m, inflation inflated of over 150% is £738.4m). While 2019 felt like a sequel to 1989 and 1990 2020 felt like it was to be a sequel to 1990 before COVID and it turned out to have a similar box office.
Interestingly the average price for 2020 was up 7.7% from last year from £7.06 to £7.60 despite Vue Cinemas reducing ticket prices in many of their cinemas to under £7 and some of the classics shown in many cinemas after the first lockdown £5.
The top 10 distributors share dropped slightly in 2020 from 91.8% to 89.1% as independent distributors filled the gap over the first few weeks after cinemas reopened in July. Over the 26 weeks, independent distributors including Vertigo, Signature Entertainment, Trafalgar, and Altitude have released most of the new releases. They took the gamble to release films ahead of the major studios and many of the films have been steady performers with films like Dreambuilders taking £358,188, 100% Wolf taking £1.4m, Pinocchio taking £852,909, Unhinged taking £2m, and After We Collided £4m.
In normal circumstances, these films would be lucky if they lasted more than a week in the top 10. Will major exhibitors remember these independent distributors this year when the studios release these big movies, or will they go back to struggling to get the screens and support for their films?
It’s the first time since 2010 UK box office has topped £1bn; inflation inflated UK BO has been over £1bn since 1996 showing again the “growth” the industry was so quick to announce in 2018 was minimal.
441 films were released in the UK in 2020 down from 938 in 2019.
UK admissions for 2020 were about 42m the lowest ever, 12m lower than 1984 which was the previous lowest when the box office was £102.6m but £383.9m inflation inflated.
After the UK had the lowest ever admissions in 1984, British Film Year followed in 1985 which started the renaissance of cinema in the UK (in 1993 after the huge success of Jurassic Park analysts predicted 200m admissions by 2000) continued till 2002 and included National Cinema Day in 1996/97. Been saying since March needed a similar event to relaunch cinema for the 125th anniversary of cinema to get people back into the cinema habit as while exhibitors might believe there is a pent-up demand for people to return to the cinema this won’t happen until 2022 until there is herd immunity.
With lockdown 3 likely to run until at least March it’s idiocy to think No Time To Die will open in April as it was similar idiocy that saw exhibitors rushing months too early to reopen cinemas in July and early December. As the vulnerable might have the vaccine but they aren’t the key cinema demographic, the under the 50s won’t get the vaccine until late summer and the second dose until early 2022.
At the start of the year, Universal Pictures was expected to be the #1 distributor in the UK for the first time since 2015 having a far stronger slate including No Time To Die, Minions: The Rise of Gru, and F9 stronger than Disney. Much was said that the 2020 slate wasn’t as strong as 2019 and while it was predictable that the seven Disney films took £50m+ at the box office, the only surprise was the success of Joker. Apart from No Time To Die it was much harder to see what other films would have taken over £40m apart from 1917.
There were likely many more £30m+ films with box office more evenly spread out between distributors. While 2019 felt like a sequel to either 1989 or 1999, 2020 felt like a sequel to 1990 a year that had many sequels, many of which underwhelmed but original films including Pretty Woman, Ghost, and Home Alone all phenomenally successful.
eOne was the biggest distributor of the year with 89% of its total box office coming from 1917; since eOne became a partner with Amblin in 2015 they have released The BFG (£30,694,086), The Girl on the Train (£23,372,415), Office Christmas Party, Entebbe, The House with a Clock in its Walls, Green Book, On the Basis of Sex, Dark Waters and 1917.
Sony Pictures and Disney were second and third; Sony’s 2020 box office was inflated with 2019’s Jumanji: The Next Level (£10,687,768) and Little Women (£14,789,605) taking almost 50% (£25,477,373) of their 2020 total; similarly Star Wars: The Rise Of Skywalker (£11,165,098) and Frozen 2 (£5,112,713) added £16,277,811 to Disney’s total and included £12.6m from 20th Century Fox’s films from 2020 without which Disney would have taken only £8m and been in ninth place.
After Event Cinema had a massive year in 2019 taking over £50m it dropped over 90%, while it had a couple of successes before lockdown including Kinky Boots The Musical £1.4m and Cyrano De Bergerac NT Live £899k the Event Cinema screenings that opened from July failed to find wide audiences including Katherine Jenkin’s Christmas Spectacular and Little Mix: LM5: The Tour Film both released in December. Event Cinema will struggle in early 2021 as it targets older audiences who haven’t felt comfortable returning to the cinema since July and probably won’t until they are vaccinated which won’t be until at least the summer.
Home Entertainment
While the cinema box office declined by almost 80% the UK home entertainment sector was up 26% to £3.3 billion versus £2.6 billion in 2019. Biggest film Warner’s Joker, the Oscar-winning drama, after being one of the biggest films of 2019 taking over £57m it sold 1.4m units across digital and physical formats. The four biggest selling films sold more than 1m units DVD and VOD (Joker, Frozen 2, Jumanji: The Next Level and 1917) and the other 6 in the top 10 all sold over 500k (Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker (probably affected by being also on Disney+ same time), Downtown Abbey: The Movie, Bad Boys for Life, Knives Out, Sonic the Hedgehog and Terminator: Dark Fate (after underwhelming at the box office in 2019 found success at home).
84% of the home entertainment market is now from streaming, 23% of UK households signing up for service in the first quarter, when Disney+ launched with 7% and 3.5% joining over the next two quarters. 53% subscribe to at least one streaming service and 6.7m (24%) subscribed to 2+. 17.5m homes now subscribe to a streaming service in the UK with 13.1m Netflix, 7.86m Amazon, 4.6m Disney+ and 1.62m Now TV.
The global VOD market is worth £40.1nm with £1.5bn from the UK with the average user paying £45.44 a year.
There were more than 30.8m VOD rentals up to October 2020, most of the films were like the biggest selling films with the exception of Le Mans 66, Contagion, and Angel Has Fallen. It was understandable why Contagion was in the top 10, (was broadcast on ITV2 early into the lockdown generating mass hysteria on Twitter asking why to broadcast the film now, but surely if government officials had seen it in January as with Rise of the Planet of the Apes, we might not be in the third lockdown now) but Angel Has Fallen was more surprising.
Interestingly HD formats increased in sales with Blu-ray sales £73m and 4K £19.2m. (having brought hundreds of DVDs and dozens of Blu-rays a decade ago, it has been a long time since I brought a physical DVD or even played my many DVDs). The Star Wars saga took 8 places of the top 10 of 4K catalog titles with Jaws and Top Gun the only two non-Star Wars films. (are now 564 4K films available on 4K DVD).
January
January started strongly boosted by the Christmas holdovers including Star Wars: The Rise Of Skywalker taking £11,165,098, Little Women (£14,789,605), Jumanji: The Next Level (£10,687,768), Frozen 2 £5,112,713, Spies in Disguise (£3,827,040), and Cats (£2,768,962). The holdover box office from these films dramatically increased the annual box office for Disney (£16.27m) and Sony Pictures (£25.47m (48%) and increased their studio 68% for Disney and 48% for Sony.
The first major release of the year was also surprisingly the biggest film of the year 1917 taking with 1917 taking £43,913,738 after opening with £7,446,302. 1917 opened on the 10th January (2nd weekend of January has been a lucrative date for the biggest Oscar contender over the years). It’s the week BAFTA and Oscar nominations are announced and also had the Brit boost Slumdog Millionaire, The Kings Speech and Darkest Hour had, which saw them open strongly and have long legs; Slumdog Millionaire (£41,995,981), The Kings Speech (£54,036,062), 12 Years A Slave (£21,517,696), Birdman (£5,681,710), Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (£15,238,741) and Darkest Hour (£24,112,875).
While eOne followed Universal Pictures approach of previous Oscar contenders Les Misérables (opened £8,127,991 taking £40,818,299) and The Darkest Hour (opened with £4,058,356 taking £24,112,875) to premiere 1917 In early December which built up award buzz and word of mouth. Normally these films receive their UK premiere at the London Film Festival after previously premiering at Venice and Toronto Film Festivals.
The other Oscar contenders with the exception of Parasite (opening in February with £1,397,387 taking £12,030,000) failed to find wide audiences, JoJo Rabbit which had been seen over the previous months as one of the major Oscar contenders took only £7,541,315 after opening with £2,415,233 suffered from 1917 opening the week after.
Guy Ritchie’s The Gentlemen and Bad Boys For Life performed strongly after opening with £3,057,108 and £3,781,233 they took £11,057,892 and £15,953,076, as both had long gaps since Guy Ritchie’s previous gangster films (Snatch in 2000 took £12.4m and 1998’s Lock, Stock and Two Smoking Barrels took £11.8m) and Bad Boys 2 in 2003 and audience tastes have changed a lot since.
As with many long gap sequels never know what audience would see them those who grew up with the films or younger audiences, this is also the case with Top Gun: Maverick and was going to be with Coming 2 America before Paramount Pictures sold it to Amazon for over $100m. Both original films are classics seen them countless times, saw Coming To America in cinemas half a dozen times in 1988, but 33 years later the trailer looked like an inferior version with similar jokes that all felt flat.
1995’s Bad Boys opened with £866,215 (£2,434,072 inflation inflated) taking £8,408,498 (£13,673,278 inflation inflated)
2003’s Bad Boys 2 opened with £3,175,258 (£5,163,370 inflation inflated) taking £8,141,704 (£7,932,942 inflation inflated).
What helped with Bad Boys For Life was the film felt new and different with director Michael Bay replaced by Bilall Fallah and Adil El Arbi which gave the film a fresh feel to it, the next direct Beverly Hills Cop 4 for Netflix, after the dreadful Beverly Hills Cop 3 directed by John Landis in 1994 hopeful they can bring new energy to the sequel, as 1984 original is a classic action comedy directed by Martin Brest, while the sequel was glossy, and fun directed by Tony Scott.
February
Curzon’s massive gamble opening Parasite in February worked even better than they could have possibly imagined opening with £1,397,387 having the biggest ever opening for a foreign-language film in the UK taking £1,389,856 (including previews) from 137 screens overtaking 2007’s Apocalypto opened in 385 screens (£1,360,110) 2004’s Hero (£1.05m), 2000’s Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon (£696,000) and 2004’s Amélie (£559,000).
It was a massive gamble for Curzon in October to announce a full theatrical release for Parasite and to date it February 7th at the end of award season week after BAFTAs and weekend of the Oscars, but the gamble paid off. The week before it opened won 2 BAFTA awards Best Foreign Language Film and Best Original Screenplay and won 4 Oscars Best Picture, Best Director, Best Original Screenplay, and Best Foreign Language Film, becoming the first film ever to win Best Film and Best Foreign Language Film.
Parasite went on to take £12.1m becoming the highest-grossing foreign-language film in the UK ahead of 2004’s The Passion of Christ £11.1m; 2001’s Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon £9.4m; 2001’s Amelie £5m; 2007’s Apocalypto £4.1m; 2004’s Hero and House of Flying Daggers £3.8m.
This was more incredible as the film had been available illegally online for months as had been released in South Korea 9 months earlier, but people choose to see the film in the cinema. Its release was affected by the lockdown as cinemas closed in the films 6 weeks on release and were still performing strongly and would have been one of only a few films that would have played out its 16-week theatrical release in cinemas.
Curzon had planned to release the black and white version of Parasite at the end of March but after cinemas closed it only had a limited run-in cinema in July.
Dolittle was originally due to be released in May 2019 and delayed many times before opening in January in the US and February in the UK due to extensive reshoots after poor testing, but despite poor reviews opened strongly in the UK with £5,085,520 (including £1,965,515 previews) and went on to take £15,930,410. Despite taking over $250m worldwide the film reportedly lost Universal almost $100m.
Sonic The Hedgehog was originally set for release in November 2019 but after a negative reaction to the first trailer and the look of Sonic they redesigned him to look as he does in the computer games. A new trailer was released in November which was well-received saw Sonic the Hedgehog open with £4,733,768 similar to 2019’s Detective Pikachu £4,951,838 but took more than £19,258,137 Vs £13,368,175.
February half-term over recent years has been very lucrative for family films including 2014’s The Lego Movie opened £8,051,140 taking £32,887,286; 2015’s Big Hero 6 opened £4,293,286 taking £20,123,298; 2017’s The LEGO Batman Movie opened £7,906,468 taking £26,771,191 and Sing opened £10,487,380 taking £28,840,000; 2018’s Coco opened £5,209,214 taking £18,013,336; 2019’s The LEGO Movie 2 opened £4,016,730 taking £18,588,809 and How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World opened £5,323,448 taking £19,281,679.
Paramount Pictures has already dated the sequel for release in 2022.
Despite receiving positive reviews Birds of Prey didn’t open anywhere near 2016’s Suicide Squad £11,252,225, instead opened with £2,833,297 taking £8,820,000.
The strange thing with DC films is the worst films have opened bigger than their better films with Batman Vs Superman: Dawn of Justice opening with £14,621,007 but Wonder Woman opening a year later with £6,179,616, the only exception was Joker last year opening with £12,555,328 taking £57,800,000.
What didn’t help the film was about Harley Quinn rather than the Birds of Prey so why wasn’t the film called Harley Quinn as while the Birds of Prey feature the film they play back-up to Harley Quinn which probably confused some; there were reports that some cinemas were calling the film Harley Quinn: Birds of Prey which surely make more sense as it is Harley Quinn (Margot Robbie) film.
2020 was meant to be the year of female comic-book characters with Birds of Prey, Black Widow in May, and Wonder Woman 1984, but Birds of prey underperformed, Black Widow was delayed to May 2021, and Wonder Woman 1984 opened disappointingly in December.
Birds of Prey opened similar to 2003’s Kill Bill Volume 1 opened £2,693,742 (£4,380,364 inflation inflated) taking £11,252,063 (£18,297,274 inflation inflated) and 2004’s Kill Bill Volume 2 opened £2,768,832 (£4,452,331 inflation inflated) taking £9,024,046 (£14,510,827 inflation inflated)
The industry never questions an indie male director moving up to make a big-budget film, but questions seem to always be asked when a woman does, as Birds of Prey director Cathy Yan had only directed low budget Dead Pigs, similar was said about Patty Jenkins before Wonder Woman opened as she had only directed Monster. While there were no such questions asked about Rian Johnson directing Star Wars: Episode VIII – The Last Jedi, Gareth Edwards directing 2014’s Godzilla, or Colin Trevorrow directing Jurassic World directing only Safety Not Guaranteed previously.
Also opened in February was The Invisible Man with £2,163,797 taking £6,797,826 and Emma £1,635,797 taking £7,450,786 both films were affected by the downturn of cinema attendance due to Coronavirus with both releases cut short.
March
Onward opened 6th March with £3,419,500 including £800k from previews, having one of the lowest openings of a Pixar film in the UK. Early March was when supermarkets had to ration toilet paper due to selfish morons stockpiling, supermarket shelves were empty of pasta, rice, and tinned food, despite this UKCA’s Phil Clapp told Variety “It’s definitely a developing picture, but we’re not seeing any discernible impact in terms of cinema admissions across the piece,”… organization is currently following government guidance, with all sites remaining open and operating on a “’ business as usual’ basis.”
The weekend before cinemas closed box office was down 50% from the previous weekend with Onward dropping 63% taking £1,272,748 having Pixar’s second-worst second-weekend similar box office to The Good Dinosaur and Cars and all other films apart from The invisible Man dropped almost 60%.
US cinemas brought in seat separation policies the week before they closed, but this is all too little too late, why did take US exhibitors so long to react. While UK cinemas didn’t bring them in until cinemas reopened in July all except Omniplex Cinemas in Ireland, they waited on government advice as Premier League were until they were forced to do something after several players were infected with Coronavirus.
The West had 2 months to prepare for Coronavirus and must have known what was happened in China and South Korea was going to happen throughout the world? While exhibitors have complained about how studios have responded since cinemas closed with AMC and Regal banning Universal Pictures after they released Trolls World Tour on PVOD (it was due for release three weeks later, it was the only thing they could do, but despite being released on PVOD and DVD the film was shown in cinemas in July and took almost £1m).
At the time cinemas closed in mid-March, adds were running for Trolls World Tour opening in cinemas on April 10th (as were adverts for Mulan and Peter Rabbit 2) to cancel the film’s release would be very costly to Universal as it must have been to both Disney and Sony for Mulan and Peter Rabbit. (more costly for the later as it had a multi-million promotional campaign with Cadbury’s)
Universal had already delayed Minions: The Rise of Gru to the following summer and had Sing 2 dated for December 2021 and while the first Trolls was successful it wasn’t big enough sequel to delay for a year (as was the case with The Croods: A New Age) so going VOD was the only option they had. There must have been similar discussions at Sony Pictures over Peter Rabbit 2 but as it’s one of their most valuable properties with the first film taking over £40m in the UK releasing the sequel on VOD would damage any further sequels, this was also the difference with Trolls World Tour and The Croods: A New Age any spinoffs to them would be for TV, not cinema.
Why did cinemas wait on government guidance before doing anything as over the previous months the government has shown they have been extremely poor at making decisions, surely businesses should have made decisions for themselves, but of course if they did that they wouldn’t get government bailouts. Days after the lockdown was announced Cineworld started laying off staff, days later the government announced their furlough scheme that would pay up to 80% of salaries.
Cineworld released a statement at the same time “Following an increase in admissions in the first two months of the year against the same period in the previous year, we continue to see good levels of admissions in all our territories, despite the reported spread of COVID-19.”
This is the reason why exhibitors were so slow to react to COVID and were in complete denial of it until it was too late as the first two months of the year started so strongly they didn’t want to spook their customers despite most of them already being spooked buying 96 rolls of toilet paper on their way to the cinema.
As soon as China shut all cinemas in January days before their New Year which is their most lucrative time of the year the West should have taken notice and planned for worse-case scenarios. They probably believed Coronavirus was going to be like SARS in 2003 and not affect the West, instead, it was like Spanish Flu taking 24 hours to go global due to aircraft much quickly than Spanish Flu that took a week to go global by ship.
Cinemas closed for the first time since September 3rd, 1939 after World War 2 was declared most UK cinemas will be closed, but within a week most reopened as the government realized that the nation needed the entertainment to keep up its spirits. This time cinemas will be dark for much longer, many expect till May. The only other time cinemas closed was in 1918 after the Spanish Flu pandemic.
Over the years studios have made many virus films including Contagion and Rise of the Planet of the Apes so surely if there is one industry that knows how these viruses can go global it is the film industry, the endings of these two films could be seen as historical documents (Galaxy Quest).
Onward took £5,291,686 after two weeks before lockdown on March 17th, topping the chart for two weeks, three months later when cinemas reopened in July despite being available to buy on digital and DVD was #1 taking £21,626 from 47 screens, returning to #1 for a following two weeks July 17th and 24th. Onward went on to take £7.7m, taking over £2.4m after cinemas reopened showing that even if people have a choice to see films at home if it’s a film they want to see in the cinema they will see it in the cinema.
April-July
Cinemas closed on March 17th, on May 11th it was announced that some hospitality could reopen on July 4th. 10 days before cinemas reopened Warner Bros on June 25th announced Tenet would be delayed from July 31st to August 12th, the day after Disney delayed Mulan from July 24th to August 21st.
UK exhibitors kept the July 4th reopening date, why didn’t UK exhibitors delay the reopening of cinemas by a month after this news? Those first four weeks were incredibly soft with most cinema schedules looking almost identical to how they were in March before cinemas closed.
Film Distributors Association gave exhibitors access to over 450 films including many classic library films, while independent exhibitors were far more creative with their schedules major chains look similar to how they were in March.
Week 1 £189,000 from 460 screens (73 cinemas) 141 films on release; top 5 took £81,880
Week 2; Up 76.2% £333,002 (182 films) from 1,059 screens (123 cinemas 85 from the UK the rest from Ireland and drive-ins) up 130.2%; The Empire Strikes Back (40th Anniversary opening with £50,406 from 1012 screens); top 5 £148,675.
Week 3: Down 7.5% £308,154 (191 films) from 151 cinemas and 1,286 screens up 21.4%; top 5 took £136,559; top 5 took £169,911
Week 4: Up 30.7% £402,752 (214 films) from 185 cinemas and 1,734 screens Up 34.8%; top 5 took £328,783
Box office increased 61.8% in week 5 to £651,914 (218 films) from 3,016 screens (326 cinemas reopened) with the release of the first major film since lockdown Unhinged opened with £175,263 from 243 screens); top 5 took £328,783. Two weeks later increased again up 85.2% £997,837 (269 films) from 366 cinemas due to Inception: 10th Anniversary opened £207,675 from 313 screens; top 5 took £628,678.
Two weeks later saw the biggest increase up 462.2% £6,224,288 (204 films) from 3, 856 (629 cinemas) after Tenet opened with 85.7% (£5,335,654); top 5 took £5,868,018.
MGM and Universal Pictures delayed No Time To Die on March 4th for the first time a month before it was due to be released, days after advance bookings opened in the UK, this saw all other studios delay many of their upcoming releases to later in the year and 2021, with the exception of Warner with Tenet and Disney with Mulan.
July
UK cinemas reopened on July 4th and major exhibitors’ schedules looked similar to how they were on March 20th when they closed, while independent exhibitors used the 450+ library o films they were given. More could and should have been done for cinema reopening with the industry spending the previous months of lockdown to come up with a strategy and plan that wasn’t just built around Tenet and Mulan.
The #LoveCinema launched on August 20th was 6 weeks later and should have been running before cinemas reopened as was the campaign that started in December as both were targetting cinephiles who had already returned to the cinema. What was needed was to show all those who have been watching films at home on the 50 inch and 5-inch screens at home they haven’t really seen the films at all as 20th Century Fox did with their Star Wars reissue trailer in 1997
After 16 weeks Onward opened #1 over the first week cinemas reopened taking £21,626 from 47 screens with Trolls World Tour opening #2 with £16,941 and Bad Boys For Life #3 £16,070 despite all three films on DVD and PVOD while the perennial cinema favorite ever since December 2017 The Greatest Showman #4 with £14,499 it took over £250k over the 26 weeks cinemas reopened.
The top 10 also had several classic films Dirty Dancing, Grease, The Terminator, Star Wars: Episode IV – A New Hope, and Fight Club that let cinephiles get to see these films for the first time on the big screen, it’s only when you see these films on the big screen you realise that you miss so much watching them at home on your 50-inch TV or 5 Inch mobile. Always used to go to the Odeon Marble Arch 70mm seasons showing classic films as to experience the film at that cinema was nothing like you would ever get at home.
The reopening of cinema should have been focused on these classic films, with the lowest possible ticket price as it was all about getting people feeling comfortable going back to the cinema and getting them back into the cinema habit. As the problem has been exhibitors have always believed since cinemas closed that there will be a ‘’pent-up’ demand, there might e when there is herd immunity but not over the next year.
The following week Disney released Star Wars: Episode V – The Empire Strikes Back (40th Anniversary) taking £50,406 from 101 screens, they were going to release it in 4K but due to a disagreement with exhibitors didn’t.
Three weeks later Altitude released Russell Crowe’s Unhinged opened #1 £175,263 from 243 screens in normal circumstances Unhinged and Honest Thief (opened in October) would probably go straight to DVD but ow they were the perfect brainless action movies for the cinema, and both performed well, and both held surprisingly strongly as normally these films would barely last a week in the top 10 and drop heavily in their second weekends but Unhinged dropped only 34% going on to take over £2m.
After AMC and Regal Theatres banned Universal Pictures films in March when they announced Trolls World Tour would be released on PVOD in April, Universal Pictures and AMC Theatres announced a multi-year plan for a 17-day theatrical window for smaller films and a 31-day window for films having an opening of over $50m.
It doesn’t mean that all films will immediately go to PVOD after 17 days it just gives the studio the option to do so if the film is still performing strongly after 17 days they may delay the PVOD release. This was similar to Paramount plan in 2015 with Scouts Guide to the Zombie Apocalypse Paranormal Activity: The Ghost Dimension, they could be released on PVOD a week after the films dropped below 1,000 screens.
Paramount’s early VOD made much sense as it was in exhibitors’ interest to screen successful films for longer, they already pull flops from their screens within two weeks after release, so why can’t those flops go to VOD early? If the theatrical window were more flexible it would mean a flop would be on VOD within 4 weeks, but a hit would still play for over 12 weeks before going to VOD?
Since 2009 studios have tried many times to either shorten the theatrical window (in 2009 and 2010 Disney tried to do so in the UK with A Christmas Carol, Up and Alice in Wonderland)
In March 2011 were PVOD plans by Warner Bros, Sony, Universal, and 20th Century Fox but the problem is that to get PVOD full operational all studios to need to be part of it and Disney has always distanced themselves from PVOD. Warner Bros planned to launch their service with Unknown, and Sony Pictures’ first film was to be Just Go With It.
Later in the year, Universal Pictures tried again with Tower Heist on PVOD three weeks after the film opened for $59.99. Facing boycotts from exhibitors they backed down saying at the time “Universal continues to believe that the theatre experience and a PVOD window are business models that can coincide and thrive, and we look forward to working with our partners in exhibition to find a way to experiment in this area in the future,”
At CinemaCon in 2017, there were two different PVOD services, including Sean Parker’s The Screening Room backed by Peter Jackson and J.J. Abrams, and AMC had signed a letter of intent to do business.
While in 2017 Universal Pictures, Warner Bros, and 20th Century Fox were planning to launch PVOD service in early 2018 (with films including Pitch Perfect 3 and Fox’s The Greatest Showman) Comcast, Apple, and Amazon were developing the delivery systems. This would have been 30-45 days after opening cinemas with customers paying $30.
At the time insiders said, “Everyone wants to work the cinemas, but in the end, most of the studios will move ahead with PVOD,” and “I’ve never seen anything so complicated in terms of getting this boulder up the mountain.”
Some studios had previously wanted PVOD after 17 days with a $50 price in 2016. In 2016 Regal and Cinemark weren’t entirely against PVOD and Warner Bros. CEO Kevin Tsujihara said “We’re having very constructive conversations with the exhibitors for the first time that we’ve had in a long time,” and “We are working with them to create a new window.” At the time exhibitors wanted studios to guarantee they wouldn’t try to shorten the existing home entertainment window for the next five to 10 years.
This PVOD service fell apart as soon after Disney announced plans to acquire 20th Century Fox. Disney was the one studio not interested in early VOD as they said they didn’t want to jeopardise its blockbusters. This was despite their films performing similar to other studios at the box office taking 90%+ of their box office within the first four weeks.
A studio executive said at the time “No one will come out of the gate unless the majority of the industry is involved,” says one studio executive. “There is safety in numbers.”… The studios will want protection if they are unable to convince cinema owners to go along with their plan. The two sides have been talking in earnest for months, but now, studios appear willing to go ahead and try PVOD even if exhibitors don’t come on board and if exhibitors decide to boycott every PVOD title, it could get tricky,”
Instead of Universal Pictures announced a deal with AMC Theatres it needs to be industry-wide with all studios and exhibitors coming together with a deal and this should have been done years ago or at least during the month’s cinemas were closed.
Instead, it all feels similar to how they dealt with the film to digital cinema conversion for years studios wanted exhibitors to go digital, but exhibitors refused as they didn’t see how it could benefit them, but when they did they rushed quickly going digital with 2K cinema. The problem now has a mixture of cinemas with 2K and 4K digital systems while many homes have 4K and with 8K to come.
In 2005 studios announced the first VPF agreements which would help share the costs with exhibitors for the conversion to digital cinema many of these agreements ended at the end of 2019 and studios aren’t willing to pay for further upgrades and exhibitors not willing to upgrade all cinemas to 4K and 8K, for over a century cinemas had superior picture and sound to TV with the film now this isn’t the case. As with PVOD exhibitors waited far too long to embrace digital cinema after rejecting it for more than a decade and when they did rush into it far too quickly should have waited for 4K, was similar with PVOD rejecting it from 2009 but then accepted a lesser worthy deal in 2020
August
This was likely due to Christopher Nolan’s op-ed in the Washington Post in March which made the release of Tenet political and became the “savior of cinema” to exhibitors. Warner and Disney seemed to play a billion-dollar game of chicken with Tenet and Mulan expecting one studio to delay their film first and then the other would delay. But as there is such rivalry between the two studios neither moved first, Disney had the advantage over Warner with Mulan having Disney+ and knowing that Tenet had to have a theatrical only release due to Christopher Nolan, but in doing so they killed off the lucrative Chinese market where the film was expected to perform the strongest.
Instead, Disney experienced Deja-vu with Mulan taking a fraction of what I could have taken opening with $23.1m taking $40.77m being released two weeks after it was released on Disney+. In 1998 Disney was banned in China having released Martin Scorsese’s Kundun which saw the film released over 6 months later by which time China was flooded by pirate videos in a similar way the reimagination had many pirate streams before it’s Chinese release.
After Warner Bros moved Tenet’s release several times they announced on July 27th they would release the film internationally on August 26th opening in the US the following weekend but not in New York and Los Angeles.
Tenet received huge media coverage over the month, weeks, and days leading up to its release opening with £5,335,654 including £2,044,248 from two days of previews. Tenet opened in 611 cinemas and 3,114 screens 68% of screens in the UK (4,564). Tenet dropped 59.7% in its second weekend 33% not including previews taking 2,151,490 and £10,006,540 taking 58% of its £17,466,321 after 12 days on release, while that was stronger hold than many films didn’t have anywhere nearly the legs as Parasite, 1917 or Little Women which it should have had.
The critical reaction was positive, but the audience reaction was far more polarized with Nolanites loving it but others seeing it as just a remake of The Night Manager with Christopher Nolan making his own Bond film (before announcing Tenet there were rumours of him directing Bond 25).
To quote the great Ian Malcolm, Warner were so preoccupied with whether they could, they didn’t stop to think if they should release Tenet now. If Warner had any sense they would announce Tenet going PVOD in the next few weeks alongside theatrical to avoid many watching it illegally online over the next few months, given that 80% not willing to return to the cinema anytime soon a chance to see it legally.
As many expected when Nolan forced Warner’s hands to keep Tenet opening this summer it will be a third of the size could have been if delayed to October or next summer, and as expected Nolan is not the Messiah, he’s a very naughty boy!
Christopher Nolan said he was “very pleased” with the release of Tenet and that it’s “completely understandable and completely fine” if some audiences don’t feel ready to rush back to theatres.
The problem with Christopher Nolan films is they are often styled over substance and while previous Nolan films this was possible as they were based on comic-books, historical events, or had big star name actors Leonardo DiCaprio or strong ensemble casts, Tenet is all about Christopher Nolan. While Nolanites and cinephiles will love that it is, any many comments have been that Tenet is for Nolan fans the question will be how it plays to a wider audience, but that wider audience wasn’t willing to go to the cinema.
There was a need to put the opening of Tenet into perspective, days before it’s opening BFI Chief Executive was on Newsnight and said “Tenet is obviously the first time we’ve heard of a big piece of new popcorn cinema released, so all eyes on it, I think it’s the slightly unfair level of pressure to put on one film, to be honest, but it has somewhat positioned itself to be the savior”… “cinemas had been losing £5.7m since lockdown, so clearly there’s been a huge urgency to get cinemas reopened and films back on screen, but Tenet is going to take an incredible amount of noise over the next few weeks, but it will take more than one film to get audiences back into cinemas, and there will be multiplex films for some audiences and some great independent films over the next few weeks including Rocks in September which we expected to be a big hit in the independent cinemas. So we think audiences will get back, but it’s going to take more than one film and one weekend to get audiences comfortable and back to where we were in March”.
Tenet was meant to open July 16th against Top Gun: Maverick a week after Ghostbusters, two weeks after Minions: The Rise of Gru and a week before Jungle Cruise. Christopher Nolan films aren’t big enough on their own and are much more successful opening against similar big films as had Tenet opened in July it might have not opened #1 for three weeks opening against Top Gun: Maverick and Jungle Cruise the following weekend, as Inception was #1 for only one week but had long legs staying in the top 10 for many weeks.
At the start of the year, Tenet was expected to be one of the biggest films of the year taking similar to 2010’s Inception £34,976,999, while it did do far better than the US it still took less than half what it could have taken if delayed a year, we will never know if it was Nolan pushing for summer release or Warner, Nolan has been very vocal especially over the news Warner will release all of their 2021 on HBO Max same day as cinemas but after Tenet being half the film they expected it to be it was the best bad idea they had.
Tenet held similar to Blade Runner 2049; Blade Runner 2049 opened with £6,071,625 14% more than Tenet (£5,335,654); while taking much more than Tenet in its second (£3,098,872 Vs £2,151,490) and third (£1,791,027 Vs £1,233,090) weekends in their fourth their box office is similar as both films despite their hype weren’t able to play beyond their fanbase; Blade Runner 2049 took £18,820,009.
Week 5: Up 61.8% £651,914 (218 films) from 3,016 screens (326 cinemas reopened) up 74%; Unhinged opened with £175,263 from 243 screens); top 5 took £328,783
Week 6: Down 17.4% £538,716 (236 films) from 338 cinemas and 3,393 screens up 12.5%: American Pickle opened with £27,732 from 162 screens; top 5 took £262,058
Week 7: Up 85.2% £997,837 (269 films) from 366 cinemas; Inception: 10th Anniversary opened £207,675 from 313 screens; top 5 took £628,678
Week 8: Up 10.9% £1,107,153 (264 films) from 3,889 screens (491 cinemas) up 21.5%; top 5 took £643,139
Week 9: Up 462.2% £6,224,288 (204 films) from 3, 856 (629 cinemas); Tenet opened with 85.7% (£5,335,654); top 5 took £5,868,018
December
Wonder Woman 1984 was originally due for release on December 13th, 2019 (in July 2017) before being brought forward to November 1st, 2019 to avoid opening against Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker (in November 2017) and delayed to June 5th, 2020 (in October 2018). On March 24th WW84 was delayed to August 14th due to Coronavirus, in June was delayed to October and in September was moved to Decemer18th.
London and the South East went into Tier 3 on December16th the day Wonder Woman 1984 opened oi the UK so cinemas weren’t allowed to opened and UKCA response was ”The further extension of Tier 3 restrictions to many parts of the South East will unnecessarily require the closure of yet more UK cinemas, something which has absolutely no basis in evidence and will only add to the challenges already being faced by the sector.”
In 2017’s Wonder Woman suffered from non-film related issues opening with opened with £6,179,616, Included £1.2m from previews Thursday (43% of the market) and took £1.44m on Friday and was looking like it could open about £9m; 23% of its box office came from 3D taking £1m and went on to take £22.2m.
Wonder Woman 1984 opened with £846,435 including £301,355 from previews over two days in 252 cinemas and 615 screens two thirds less than 2017’s Wonder Woman (599 cinemas 1,500+ screens) WW84 didn’t open in London, the South East, Essex, and parts of Herts as they were put into tier 3 ion Wednesday the day WW84 opened. It did play in other parts of Herts and Bucks between Weds-Fri before they also moved into tier 3 and then cinemas closed on Saturday, December 19th.
WW84 took £72,674 in its second weekend down 91.4% in its second weekend (86.6% not including previews) taking £1,377,049 in 71 screens losing 181 screens from the week before after more areas of the UK moved into Tiers 3 and 4 droppings to 3 screens last week when the only cinemas open were two on the Isle of Man and one on Guernsey taking £2,500 down from over £23m from the same weekend last year.
Warner announced on December 2nd WW84 would be released on PVOD on January 13th but surely it should have been released on PVOD immediately after almost all UK cinemas shut on December 31st.
Ever since the first lockdown in March have always believed 2020 should have been written off by studios with all films undated. Most films were apart from Tenet, Mulan, and Wonder Woman 1984. Of course, studios did so they would have taken away the little bit of hope the industry had that it could have a comeback this year, but as Morgan Freeman says in Shawshank Redemption “Hope is a dangerous thing my friend, it can kill a man”.
UK cinemas reopened in July for Tenet which was far too soon as this was before Chinese cinemas had reopened closing two months earlier, with all the research by the industry saying it would still be at least 6 months before the majority felt comfortable to go back to the cinema, it was then no surprise the level of the box office over was less than 10% of normal. Even with the massive media coverage, Tenet received it still failed to attract less than a third of the audience it could have received if it were delayed.
Warner Bros surprised the industry on November 18th announcing their entire 2021 slate would be released the same day In cinemas in the US as on HBO Max and will be released as normal internationally. It’s not known if this is just a temporary measure for Coronavirus (as will likely affect the US box office until 2022) as they couldn’t do it with Tenet as Christopher Nolan demands it had a full theatrical release. But once down the rabbit hole, it’s unlikely Warner will go back to the traditional theatrical window in 2022.
Were reports of producers and talent not being told in advance of Warner Bro’s decision to release next year’s films on HBO Max, with some threatening legal action, but if not HBO Max/theatrical next year for these film what is the solution? With recent surveys by Deloitte and Morning Consult saying over 80% of people aren’t comfortable going back to US cinemas in the next 6 months the only other option would be to delay these films to 2022 and beyond. Opening films on HBO Max/theatrical is the best bad idea Warner has available to them with these massive budget films they need the safety net of PVOD.
Over the last few months, the UKCA has said that no COVID cases have come from cinemas (that they know of), but the issue has always been since before cinemas closed in March that the majority of people don’t feel comfortable going back to the cinema anytime soon. Exhibitors’ own research has said similar for months that the majority won’t feel safe returning to the cinema for at least 6 months. With the exception of the week, Tenet opened box office has been soft over the 26 weeks cinemas were reopened so would have possibly thought exhibitors would think maybe our safety measures don’t go far enough.
China reopened their cinemas two months after the UK despite being closed for two months longer and implemented far stricter safety measures at the start and when they reopened had a slate of high-profile local films including The 800 Hundred and box office has been strong since August, likewise in Japan with Demon Slayer becoming Japan’s highest-grossing film taking over $314m.
The surveys in the UK and US have said since May that only 20% of people feel comfortable going back to the cinema and that 80% won’t feel comfortable going back for over 6 months, so surely if you have this data you would make people feel more comfortable going back to the cinema. Exhibitors believed that there would be a “pent-up” demand that would make people rush back to the cinema while cinephiles, Nolanties, and Covidiots did return cinema should be for the many not the few and studios need the many to go to the cinema to see films like Tenet and WW84.
The UK went into Lockdown 3 on Monday, January 4th and exhibitors are surely expecting to reopen cinemas in February/March failing to learn their mistakes from July and December. While many millions should get the vaccine over the next few months as they are the over 70s and the venerable they aren’t the key cinema demographic so it would be madness for studios to keep their films currently dated between now and May. Going to the cinema for the majority is extremely low on the list of priorities for most people as most are now perfectly happy to watch the latest film at home on their 50- or 5-inch screens over the next few months. Last year was the first year for over 40 I never went to the cinema.
Week 10: Down 39.8% £3,746,637 (198 films) 658 cinemas 4,607 screens (198 films on release; 487 England); top 5 £3,167,757
Week 11: Down 25% £2,812,496 from 5,522 screens; top 5 took £2,223,661; top 5 took £2,086,954
Week 12: Down 7.4% £2,603,624 from 5,401 screens; 613 cinemas; top 5 took £1,598,935
Week 13: Down 18.9% £2,112,443 from 5,564 screens 620 cinemas; top 5 took £1,598,935
Week 14: Up 24.6% £2,633,473 from 6,372 screens; top 5 took £1,753,045
Week 15: Down 36.5% £2,425,745 from 4,527 screens (closure of 1,180+ Cineworld screens); top 5 took £1,139,278
Week 16 Down 59.3% £1.2m from 4,031 screens in 488 cinemas (closure of Northern Ireland cinemas); The top five took £570,127 down 38.7% from £1,139,278 last week
Week 17 Up 54.2% £1.85m from 4,124 screens in 461 cinemas (Wales cinemas closed); 20 new releases taking almost £1m between them.
Week 18 Up 9.7% £2.03m from 469 cinemas; box office has risen well over the last two weeks, but they were boosted by over 30 films being released and being half-term and Halloween.
Week 19 Down 98.9% £22,908 from 119 screens in Scotland only; the first week of second English Lockdown; #1 The Three Kings £3,521 from 2 screens most films in the top 15 dropped close to 98%
Week 20 Up 43.2% £32,804 from 143 screens in Scotland; the second weekend of second English Lockdown; #1 The Secret Garden £5,147 from 15 screens up 201%; box office increased strongly for most films
Week 21 Down 20% £26,250 from 128 screens in Scotland; the third weekend of second English Lockdown; #1 Two By Two: Overboard! £3,422 from 16 screens many films increasing box office from last weekend despite box office down from the weekend before.
Week 22 Down 10% £23,597 from 125 screens in Scotland; the fourth weekend of second English Lockdown; #1 Home Alone £2,705 from 4 screens
Week 23 Up 2,069% £512k from 1,549 screens in 231 cinemas 20% of UK cinemas reopened with 50 Vue cinemas reopening next weekend
Week 24 up 91% £980k TBC from 3,068 screens (up 98% of screens from last weekend) about 70% of UK screens were open in the UK out of 4,500 with Cineworld being 1,100+ screens still closed along with cinemas who went into tier 3 last week. With London, the South East, Essex, and parts of Herts closing on Wednesday this will probably see over 1,000 screens closing.
Week 25 up 43% £1.4m from 2,213 screens down 28% from 279 cinemas (33% of UK cinemas open the lowest since the end of July); London and the South East have 40% of UK cinemas and they are the most expensive across the UK with many central London cinemas over £20 (almost three times average ticket price) and many outside London and South East cinemas over £15.
Week 26 Down 93% £102k box office was the lowest it’s been since England lockdown in October and lower than the first weekend cinemas reopened in July
The Future
The industry doesn’t seem to have learned anything from this year’s opening with cinemas opening months too early after the first lockdown in July and immutably after the second in December and their belief the third lockdown will end in February and cinemas can reopen in March for No Time To Die.
Tim Richards, chief executive of Vue, saying “The big movies [this year] start with Bond.. Then there will be three years of [delayed] movies in an 18-month period. There will be pent-up demand to go out and go to almost any movie.” Ever since cinemas closed in March he has talked a lot of this “pent-up demand”, but it failed to materialise in July and December with Tenet and Wonder Woman 1984, and it won’t immediately return in April if No Time To Die opens.
While the government hopes to vaccinate the most venerable by February, the over the 70s won’t have any effect on cinema attendance as they don’t go to the cinema often, the key under 50s will e the latest to get the vaccine which is unlikely to happen before the summer, while cinephiles and Covidiots will rush back to the cinema as soon as they reopen distributors need to learn from Tenet and WW84 and realise that cinema needs to be for the many, not the few.
While Warner and Disney can risk opening films now No Time To Die success is vital for the long-term success of MGM and if it performed similarly to Tenet or WW84 they might have to go forward with selling the studio.
We are only in this current situation now due to mismanagement by the government starting the first lockdown too late and ending it 6 weeks too soon as we were seeing cases drop off substantially in early July, but then they started to increase 6 weeks later which then forced the second lockdown and the third one and if this third lockdown ends too soon there could be in need for a fourth.
MGM is experiencing Deja-vu with No Time To Die as there were in this exact position in March last year, it would make much more sense to move it to October as it would for all April and early May releases keeping F9 on May 29th but delaying Black Widow to July as if No Time To Die was delayed there is no way Disney would want to be the canary in the coalmine with Black Widow.
Box office for 2021 is expected to be down about 40% in 2019 to £750m and will likely also be down in 2019 in 2022 with box office likely to return to 2019 levels in 2023.
As I believed 2020 could have had a strong last three months if cinemas reopened in September I believe that this year could have a strong 6 months from July to December but only if studios and exhibitors don’t rush to reopen cinemas as they did last year.
cigarette burns and missed changeovers 