UK/US Box Office October 4th -6th week 40; controversy gives Joker the last laugh and Warner Bros a much needed hit

 

 

1. Joker  – £12,555,328  – NE

Had the 54^th biggest opening in the UK between The Hunger Games: Mockingjay Part 1 and The Inbetweeners Movie 2; 87th biggest inflation inflated opening between The Amazing Spider-Man and Men In Black (close to Mission: Impossible, Captain Marvel, Transformers and Man of Steel)

31^st biggest Fri-Sun opening between Captain Marvel and Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald.

12^th biggest Warner Bros opening in the UK between The Dark Knight Rises and Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald; 8^th biggest Warner Bros opening without previews

15^th biggest comic-book opening in the UK between Captain Marvel and Thor: Ragnarok; 6^th biggest comic-book opening without previews; opened £419,341 less than Deadpool 2 and £ 1,174,475 less than Deadpool but both had two days of previews.

Took £3.81m from its opening day (Friday) taking 77% of the days box office from 669 screens taking 30.34% of its opening weekend on its opening day.

Joker started its international release on Wednesday so was surprising Warner Bros again opted to open the film on Friday in the UK rather than having a 5-day extended opening which is the norm for most films these days.  

Joker had the third biggest opening for DC in the UK after Batman Vs Superman: Dawn of Justice (£14,621,007) and The Dark Knight Rises (£14,362,443).

Industry often says the UK opening is the equivalent to 10% of US but Joker opening of £12m Vs US opening of $93.5m shows that this is not the case, especially as it was a 3 day opening weekend compared to many of those 10% openings which had extended openings, this makes it much harder to make direct comparisons.

Venom opened the same weekend last year with £8,031,342 (including £2,431,342 previews) taking £16,652,223.

Joker is already the 20^th biggest film of 2019 between Shazam and Glass and by next weekend will be the 12 film to take £20m+ in 2019 after Avengers: Endgame; The Lion King; Toy Story 4; Captain Marvel; Aladdin; Spider-Man Far From Home; Dumbo; Rocketman; Downtown Abbey; Once Upon A Time In Hollywood; Hobbs & Shaw. Joker will fall shorty of beating

On September 24th the Aurora shooting victims sent a letter to Warner Bros about their concerns over Joker “We are calling on you to be a part of the growing chorus of corporate leaders who understand that they have a social responsibility to keep us all safe,” Seven years have passed since James Holmes, clad in full body armour and armed with multiple guns including an assault rifle, terrorized the Aurora Cinemark theatre, murdering 12 people and injuring 70 during a screening of Christopher Nolan’s Batman film.

Warner Bros replied saying “Gun violence in our society is a critical issue, and we extend our deepest sympathy to all victims and families impacted by these tragedies,”…. “Our company has a long history of donating to victims of violence, including Aurora, and in recent weeks, our parent company joined other business leaders to call on policymakers to enact bi-partisan legislation to address this epidemic. At the same time, Warner Bros. believes that one of the functions of storytelling is to provoke difficult conversations around complex issues.”

Joaquin Phoenix said in a recent interview “Well, I think that, for most of us, you’re able to tell the difference between right and wrong. So I don’t think it’s the responsibility of a filmmaker to teach the audience morality or the difference between right or wrong. I mean, to me, I think that that’s obvious.”

While director Todd Phillips said “The movie makes statements about a lack of love, childhood trauma, lack of compassion in the world. I think people can handle that message,”.. “It’s so, to me, bizarre when people say, ‘Oh, well I could handle it. But imagine if you can’t.’ It’s making judgments for other people and I don’t even want to bring up the movies in the past that they’ve said this about because it’s shocking and embarrassing when you go, oh my God, Do the Right Thing, they said that about [that movie, too].”

On Monday Warner Bros screened Joker to the Academy reaction was polarised as it has been elsewhere with some unsure if it should be banned or be given every award; Chris Rock said on Twitter it was “incredible” and a “masterpiece,” and Michael Moore on Instagram called it a “a cinematic masterpiece.”

But, whatever Academy members think of Joker should be banned are hypocrites as probably the same people that stood up cheering in 2011 when Roman Polanski won Best Director Oscar.

Has been much written about how the film portrays mental illness and that it makes the connection between mental illness and violence which caused many to worry that this might cause violence at cinemas, but fortunately nothing happened over its opening weekend.

One of the strangest stories surrounding the film was Pornhub was reporting an increase of Joker related porn searches from less than 50,000 on Thursday to 184,000 on Saturday and 291,000 on Sunday.

After opening with £12.55m the big question is how much Joker will drop in its second weekend as comparing it to Suicide Squad drop of up to 60% is likely which will see it stay #1 with £5m+ ahead of Gemini Man and will become Warner Bros biggest DC film since Suicide Squad.

Unlike all other comic-book films Joker is a one film movie and ids not set up for a sequel which is often the problem with many comic-book films they are far too busy setting up the next films they forget to make the film complete.

Next from DC is Suicide Squad spinoff Birds of Prey opening in February (teaser trailer was attached to It Chapter Two with trailer attached to Joker) and Wonder Woman: 1984 in June with The Batman and The Suicide Squad opening in summer 2021.

2. Judy – £2,086,969   – NE

Took £600,0000 from previews on Wednesday and Thursday

Second biggest Fox/Pathe opening after 2011’s 127 Hours (£2,168,570) taking £7,705,020 and ahead of 2009’s Slumdog Millionaire (£1,827,457) taking £31,664,346

697^th biggest opening in the UK between Limitless and Mary, Queen of Scots (close to Rush, Green Zone, Burn After Reading and The Passion of the Christ) and 905^th biggest inflation inflated opening between Fahrenheit 9/11 and Ride Along 2 (close to Get Out, The Aviator, A Beautiful Mind and In Her Shoes).

Similar films

11.5% less than 2017’s Victoria and Abdul opened £1,846,970 taking £9,434,937

8.1% less than 2015’s The Lady in the Van opened £2,256,121 taking £12,660,028

30.5% more than 2015’s Far From The Madding Crowd opened £1,450,297 taking £6,071,481

29.5% more than 2014’s Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom opened £1,472,500 taking £4,303,721

27.6% more than 2013’s Philomena opened £1,509,726 taking £10,470,225

6.5% less than 2012’s The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel opened £2,222,051 taking £20,308,480

178.3% more than 2011’s My Week with Marilyn opened £749,819 taking £3.18m

177.3% more than 2005’s Mrs. Henderson Presents opened £752,394 taking £3,883,657

As with Downton Abbey Judy is likely to perform stronger during weekdays and will hold strongly over the coming weekends with little competition.

After having its world premiere at the Telluride Film Festival in August 2019 received positive reviews (83% Rotten Tomatoes) highlighting Zellweger’s performance which has generated Oscar buzz. It was then surprising that the British made film set in London didn’t open the London Film Festival opening in the UK instead Pathe opted to have its UK premiere days before.

While US studios want to premiere films at Venice, Toronto and Telluride Film Festivals as they are seen as launch platforms for award campaigns. Most recent Best Picture Oscar winners (Green Book, The Shape of Water, Moonlight, Spotlight, Birdman, 12 Years A Slave, Argo, The Artist The King’s Speech, The Hurt Locker and Slumdog Millionaire) received their UK premiere at the London Film Festival all bar The Artist had their world premieres before London.

Having a screening at the London Film festival after Venice, Toronto and Telluride Film Festivals is an extra unnecessary cost especially as often the films will open several months later, this years opening film was The Personal History of David Copperfield had its world premiere at the Toronto Film Festival and opens in UK cinemas in January, while its closing film Netflix’s The Irishman will get a very limited theatrical release as major exhibitors won’t book it, had its world premiere at New York Film Festival in September.

Over recent years the London Film Festival screenings even opening and closing films get very little media coverage, so there is very little benefit to a distributor to premiere their most high-profile award contenders. In the Sony Pictures Hacking emails there was there were interesting discussions over the value of Fury closing the London Film Festival after they had Captain Philips successfully open the festival the year earlier.

This year the London Film Festival opening was overshadowed by both Judy and Joker two films that premiered at other film festivals, but studios opted to open them away from the festival highlights the problem to the London Film Festival that its no longer a festival for London but just the industry and the surrounding film blogging community. The film festival used to be much more commercial with films like Die Hard and Predator premiering but has become a clone of Venice, Toronto and Telluride Film Festivals and is probably seen as an additional expense to studios that has limited upside.

3. Downtown Abbey – £1,461,074  – £23,109,145

Down 45.2% in its fourth weekend; Downton Abbey faced tough competition for the grey pound with the arrival of Judy which saw it drop heavier in its fourth weekend than other similar films targeting the same demographic.

9^th biggest film of 2019 between Once Upon A Time In Hollywood and Rocketman and Universal Pictures biggest film of 2019 in the UK.

47^th biggest fourth weekend in the UK between Wallace and Gromit: The Curse of the Were-Rabbit and Moulin Rouge (close to Calendar Girls (£1,761,985); Rocketman (£1,633,127); Nanny McPhee (£1,313,524).

After taking 5.8% more than 2011’s The King’s Speech after three weeks Downton Abbey dropped heavier in its fourth weekend taking 7.2% less (£24,905,378) and 8.2% less than Love Actually (£25,166,894) but has taken 20.1% more than Rocketman (£19,255,598) A Star Is Born (£19,238,711) and 37.1% The Greatest Showman (£16,865,309).

After opening with £5.18m and taking £9.8m in its opening week would have expected Downton Abbey to take over £30m but hasn’t held as strongly as might have expected.

194^th biggest film in the UK between Doctor Strange and Austin Powers in Goldmember (close to Rocketman, The Girl on the Train, Fifty Shades Darker and Bridesmaids) and 293^rd biggest inflation inflated between Rocketman and The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel (close to The Martian, Gone Girl, The Beach and Jerry Maguire) and will shortly become the 169^th film to take over £25m.

Universal Pictures UK 20^th biggest film between The Bourne Ultimatum and Jason Bourne and 27th biggest inflation inflated between Despicable Me and Little Fockers.

Downton Abbey has overtaken total box office of 2001’s Gosford Park (£12.3m) Downton Abbey was originally conceived as a spinoff of Gosford Park but was set several decades later, also overtaking   2007’s Atonement (£12.4m), 1996’s Sense and Sensibility (£13.6m) and 2005’s Pride & Prejudice (£14.6m).

Feel-good British/grey pound film will often hold strongly over weeks after opening as older audiences don’t rush out to see the films over opening weekend as younger audiences and are much more affected with word of mouth.

2012’s The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel dropped 14% taking £1,530,112 and £13,855,438 68.2% of £20,308,480 total

2017’s Murder on the Orient Express dropped 40% taking £1,373,756 and £20,442,641 84.6% of £24,140,635

2016’s Bridget Jones’s Baby dropped 38% taking £2,997,832 and £37,866,152 78.6% of £48,150,737

2013’s Philomena dropped 46% taking £541,068 and £8,866,771 84.6% of £10,470,225

2006’s The Queen dropped 37% £507,777 taking £5,534,013 58.9% of £9,381,693

2003’s Calendar Girls dropped 20% £1,415,753 taking £12,651,517 62.7% of £20,174,133

September has been a strong date to open British based films including

2017 Victoria and Abdul taking £9,434,937; 2016 – Bridget Jones’s Baby taking £48,150,737

2015 Legend taking £18,202,111; 2011- Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy taking £14,133,500

2006 – The Queen taking £9,381,693; 2003 Calendar Girls taking £20,174,133

4. Hustlers – £590,645  –  £6,178,018

Down 41.6% in its fourth weekend;  35^th biggest film of 2019 between Dora and the Lost City of Gold and Fighting With My Family.

Hustlers has become STX’s biggest film ever in the UK overtaking last years I Feel Pretty (£5,384,881); 2016’s Bad Moms (£8,141,704) and 2017’s A Bad Moms Christmas (£7,847,589) are STX Entertainments biggest films in the UK but they were both release through their output deal with Entertainment Film Distributors which ended in 2017.

One film can make or break an independent distributors year, Hustlers has taken almost 60% of their 2019 box office (£8.8m). This has been similarly the case with most distributors this year, with this year Fisherman’s Friends taking 67% of Entertainment Films 2019 box office; Stan & Ollie and Green Book taking 50%+ of eOne; John Wick: Chapter Three taking 30% of Lionsgate; Rocketman taking 45% of Paramount Pictures; Spider-Man Far From Home taking 50% of Sony Pictures; Upcoming Shaun The Sheep Movie 2 will do the same for Studiocanal. Its only Disney, Universal Pictures and Warner Bros who have a more evenly split over several films.

5. Ad Astra – £467,983   – £5,546,154

Dropped 63.5% in its third weekend

156^th biggest 20^th Century Fox film in the UK between Shallow Hal and Fight Club (close to Entrapment, 28 Days Later, In Time and 28 Weeks Later) and 175^th biggest inflation inflated between Hidden Figures and Let’s Be Cops (close to Unstoppable, Fantastic Four (2015), The Happening and Predator 2).

Of the recent grown up sci-fi films released in the autumn over the last 6 years Ad Astra is holding close to Arrival and First Man taking about 65% of its total box office which will see Ad Astra taking £6.5m+ less than both First Man and Arrival.

Third weekends

Took 29.3% less than 2018’s First Man £605,032 54% drop £6,559,818 89.1% of £7,360,906

Took 66.2% less than 2017’s Blade Runner 2049 £1,791,027 42% drop £15,718,087 83.5% of £18,820,009

Took 22.3% less than 2016’s Arrival £778,449 48% drop £7,334,028 81.5% of £8,994,774

Took 75% less than 2015’s The Martian £2,419,958 38% drop £17,491,033 74.2% of £23,578,878

Took 68.1% less than 2014’s Interstellar £1,895,368 50% drop £15,866,812 79.1% of £20,066,636

Took 74.6% less than 2013’s Gravity £2,389,193 51% drop £19,444,886 59.5% of £32,692,161

20th Century Fox had strong success over recent years targetting older audiences so would  have hoped had similar success with Ad Astra, but it was always going to be a hard sell despite cinemagoers always saying they want to see more original films.

Brad Pitt said in an interview it’s a mistake to judge a film’s success by its box office opening “Well, for the financiers, whether it be studio or independent, that will be monetary. And most of our films, which I feel is a mistake, get defined by the opening weekend. They’ll say it’s a hit or it’s a miss. But all of my favourite films, I found them well after the fact.” …. “I guess that doesn’t answer my fiduciary responsibility. But it does! Actually I disagree with that. Because I’m looking at the film: Does it have anything to say in 10 years or 20 years? Could it still have legs? Could it still be around? History is rife with films that we love today that were abysmal ‘bombs’ on their opening weekend. And we find them later, or we catch up with them.”

Ad Astra is 20th Century Fox’s fourth biggest film of 2019 after The Favourite, Alita: Battle Angel and Dark Phoenix; Ad Astra is the 37th biggest film of 2019

In 2018 the 12 films 20th Century Fox released took £85m in 2019 they have release 13 films to date taking 38% less (£53m); their 2019 slate included Alita: Battle Angel and Dark Phoenix both delayed from last year but the rest must have been impacted on the studio being acquired by Disney and the way audiences have become much more selective with the films they see in cinemas.

20th Century Fox remaining films for 2019 Terminator: Dark Fate, Le Mans ’66 and Spies In Disguise

UK box office in detail

This weekend’s top 10 box office took £18,790,335 up 106.1% from last weekend £9,120,747

The weekend admissions 2,502,042 up 112.8% from last weekend 1,175,669; average ticket £7.51 up 5% from last year’s £7.22 and Applaudience estimate ticket price of £10.28

15 films opened at weekend taking (£15,677,630); Joker 80.1% (£12,555,328); Judy 13.3% (£2,086,969); remaining 13 films shared 6.6% (£1,035,332);

Top three took 85.7% (£16,103,371) of the top 10; Joker 66.8% (£12,555,328); Judy 11.1% (£2,086,969); Downtown Abbey 7.7% (£1,461,074);

Down 3.9% from 2018: (£19,552,430); Venom (£8,031,342); Johnny English Strikes Again (£4,117,692); A Star is Born (£4,100,196); Aida – Met Opera 2018 (£302,179); Blindspotting (£28,231); #1 Venom £8,031,342 1st week 556 screens (41.1%)

Up 65.2% from 2017: (£11,370,381); Blade Runner 2049 (£6,071,625); The Mountain Between Us (£777,646); Norma – Met Opera 2017 (£224,794); The Glass Castle (£49,425); #1 Blade Runner 2049 £6,071,625 1^st week 634 screens (54.4% of the top 10)

Up 43.7% from 2016: (£13,075,476); Miss Peregrine’s Home for Peculiar Children (£3,473,781); Deepwater Horizon (£1,984,340); Supersonic (£542,263); Free State of Jones (£118,635); Swiss Army Man (£80,403); #1 Bridget Jones’s Baby £4,807,165 3^rd week 646 screens 26% drop (36.7% of the top 10)

Up 65.5% from 2015; (£11,352,036); The Martian (£6,531,734); The Intern (£758,713); Macbeth (£746,642); Il Trovatore – Met Opera 2015 (£234,387); Dragon Ball Z: Resurrection ‘F’ (£151,087); #1 The Martian £6,531,734 1^st week 582 screens (57.5% of top 10)

Up 75.3% from 2014: (£10,716,576); Gone Girl (£4,109,628); Dracula Untold (£1,713,283); Bang Bang (£602,193); Dolphin Tale 2 (£536,766); Life After Beth (£53,427); #1 Gone Girl £4,109,628 1^st week 549 screens (33% drop (38.3% of top 10)

Up 217.2% from 2013: (£5,923,584); Sunshine on Leith (£770,239); How I Live Now (£232,400); Thanks for Sharing (£188,906); The Pervert’s Guide to Ideology (£38,432); The to do List (£13,512);  #1 Prisoners £1,107,641 2^nd week 437 screens 19% drop (18.7% of top 10)

Up 40.4% from 2012 (£13,375,585); Taken 2 (£7,378,048); Sinister (£1,435,722); The Perks of Being a Wallflower (£827,983); Everything or Nothing: The Untold Story of 007 (£13,391); Sparkle (£15,911); #1 Taken 2 £7,378,048 1^st week 506 screens (55.1% of top 10)

Up 63.1% from 2011 (£11,517,788); Johnny English Reborn (£4,965,000); The Lion King 3D (£2,746,763); Don’t Be Afraid of the Dark (£495,734); Midnight in Paris (£495,709); Tyrannosaur (£81,790); #1 Johnny English Reborn £4,965,000 1sr week 524 screens (43.1% of top 10)

Up 194.8% from 2010: (£6,372,852); Buried (£820,631); Made in Dagenham (£674,059); Back to the Future (Re) (£461,194); Takers (£208,390); The Secret of Kells (£6,151); #1 The Other Guys £976,459 3^rd week 427 screens 4% drop (15.3% of top 10)

Up 135.5% from 2009; (£7,977,997); The Invention of Lying (£1,735,326); Toy Story 3D (£1,395,209); Pandorum (£346,097); #1 Fame £1,786,358 2^nd week 460 screens (22.4% of top 10)

Up 199.78% from 2008; (£6,269,596); How to Lose Friends and Alienate People (£1,154,607); Brideshead Revisited (£375,270); Fly Me to the Moon 3-D (£311,791); 88 Minutes (£92,761); #1 How to Lose Friends and Alienate People £1,154,607 1^st week 451 screens (18.4% of top 10)

Up 230.4% from 2007: (£5,687,298); The Heartbreak Kid (£1,236,288); The Kingdom (£919,537); And When Did You Last See Your Father (£133,347); Daywatch (£95,574); Feast of Love (£38,463); #1 The Heartbreak Kid £1,236,288 1^st week 409 screens (21.7% of top 10)

Up 83.9% from 2006; (£10,215,688); The Devil Wears Prada (£3,267,580); The Departed (£2,298,313); Accepted (£349,897); #1 The Devil Wears Prada £3,267,580  1^st week 447 screens (31.9% of top 10)

Up 194.6% from 2005 (£6,378,025); A History of Violence (£1,135,345); Goal! (£857,253); Four Brothers (£789,718); Deuce Bigalow: European Gigolo (£280,414); #1 Pride and Prejudice £1,473,0623^rd week 412 screens 24% drop (23.1% of top 10)

Up 162.1% from 2004 (£7,170,652); Saw (£1,239,813); Layer Cake (£1,090,561); Sky Captain and the World of Tomorrow (£628,808); Man About Dog (£134,924); The Life and Death of Peter Sellers (£125,748); De-Lovely (£117,789); Dead Man’s Shoes (£44,361);  #1 Wimbledon £1,499,011 2^nd week 446 screens 12% drop (20.9% of top 10)

Up 120.1% from 2003 (£8,536,497); Bad Boys 2 (£3,175,258); Down With Love (£599,047); Bright Young Things (£327,293); Finding Nemo (platform) (£152,793); #1 Bad Boys 2 £3,175,258 1^st week 383 screens (37.2% of top 10)

Up 137.6% from 2002 (£7,906,650); Lilo & Stitch (£1,516,249); My Little Eye (£893,633); Boat Trip (£425,325); One Hour Photo (£420,500); Sweet Sixteen (£144,388); #1 Lilo & Stitch £1,516,249 1sr week 280 screens (19.1% of top 10)

Up 234.8% from 2001 (£5,465,628); Amelie (£559,747); Driven (£144,591); Original Sin (£96,622); #1 Moulin Rouge £1,072,657 5^th week #1 3rd week 397 screens 20% drop (19.6% of top 10);

Next weekend in 2018: (£17,103,615); First Man (£2,415,330); Smallfoot (£2,324,189); Cliff Richard Live: 60th Anniversary Tour (£1,123,885); Bad Times at the el Royale (£491,878); #1 A Star is Born £3,083,089 2^nd week 1^st #1 612 screens (18.1% of top 10)

Also opened

• Vampirina: Fang-Tastic Party – Disney (Event Cinema)

Opened with £74,628 from 426 screens

Vampirina is the #1 transmission amongst Pay TV kids’ channels in 2019 to date for girls 4-5 with over 2 million viewers tuning into the show on Disney Junior UK on average each quarter in 2018.

Screened in cinemas Saturday and Sunday morning with rickets less than half the price of normal prices at Odeon and Vue cinemas. Normally Event Cinema screenings are about 100% more than regular prices. When Disney screened Olaf Frozen Adventure in cinemas in November 2017 opened with £1,115,689 from 611 screens also at reduced prices.

Other box office news

September was a big month for Event Cinema with the best month thanks mostly to National Theatre Live Phoebe Waller-Bridge’s Fleabag taking £3.5m (having more encore screenings over the weekend taking £89,906).

While Secret Cinema’s Casino Royale ended on Sunday after 17 weeks taking £8,433,970 (£129,417 from its last weekend). Over its 17 weeks it was seen by over 100,000 people with tickets £85+ but will add 1,168,139 admissions to the 2019 total. Over recent years Event Cinema and Secret Cinema has helped  inflate UK admissions.

September box office was up 21% from last year thanks to Downton Abbey and It: Chapter Two., but the year still remains 3% down from the first 9 months of 2019 down £28m.

The top 10 films October- December 2018 took £294m (Bohemian Rhapsody £54.95m; Mary Poppins Returns £44.51m; Fantastic Beasts and Where To Find Them 2 £33.99m; A Star Is Born £30.00m; The Grinch £27.80m; Aquaman £22.30m; Venom £20.12m; Ralph Breaks the Internet £18.45m; Johnny English 3 £17.68m; Bumblebee £12.76m).

With Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker £95m; Frozen 2 £50m; Jumanji: The Next Level £40m; Cats £40m; Joker £30m; Maleficent: Mistress of Evil £20m; Shaun The Sheep Movie 2 £15m; Terminator: Dark Fate £15m; Abominable £10m; Spies in Disguise £10m; taking over £325m between them 2019 should end slightly ahead of 2018. At the start of 2019 with the slate of films including Avengers: Endgame, Toy Story 4, The Lion King, Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker and Frozen 2 2019 should have been far ahead of 2018 by now.

There are massive questions over 2020 as on paper as with this year it looks like a record beaker, but Disney have a weaker slate and there are massive questions over if audiences will be interested in seeing the many long gap sequels from Bad Boys For Life to Top Gun: Maverick and Coming 2 America, While they might attract older audiences who saw the originals in cinemas will younger audiences be as interested.

 

UK Box Office Top 10

US Box office

• Joker – Warner Bros

Opened with $96.2m; received positive reviews (70% Rotten Tomatoes) but only B+ CinemaScore

Joker took 67.4% of the top 10;

Had 63^rd biggest opening in the US between Fast & Furious 6 and Captain America: The Winter Soldier; opening bigger than Guardians of the Galaxy, Justice League, The Amazing Spider-Man 2, X-Men: Days of Future Past and Logan

Took $13.3m from Thursday midnights; taking $39.35m Friday (#131 biggest opening day between Spider-Man and Spider-Man: Far from Home); $32.47m Saturday; $24.37m Sunday

Joker outsold Fandango presales for any other October release and other DC solo films Aquaman, Shazam and Wonder Woman along with It and It Chapter Two.

Ahead of release Joker was tracking to open anywhere between $50m and $105m as the audience for the film is very different to those who saw the other comic-book films released this year, but it as its psychological thriller it likely attracted non comic-book fans as Black Panther did last year.

The fourth biggest opening for an R-rated film of all time after Fox’s Deadpool ($132.4m), Deadpool 2 ($125.5m) and Warner Bros’ It ($123.4m).

Closest comic-book comparison is 2017’s Logan opened with $88.41m (taking $226.27m) also received critical acclaim and 2018’s Venom $80.25m (taking $213.51m) other R-rated comic-book films 2009’s Watchmen opened $55.2m and 2007’s 300 $70.9m and Deadpool $132.4m; Deadpool 2 $125.5m but it was a very different R-rated film.

Being a psychological thriller my comparisons are 2001’s Hannibal opening $58m (taking $165.1m) and 2002’s Red Dragon $36.54m (taking $93.14m) being 18 years since Hannibal opened could almost double these two films to get their inflation inflated totals. 

Critics have compared Joker to 1983’s The Kings of Comedy opened platform with $137,624 taking $2,536,242.

2002’s Signs is Joaquin Phoenix’s current biggest opener with $60.1m (taking $227.96m) and 2004’s The Village with $50.74m (taking $114.19m); his 31 films have taken $102bn in the US and $1.88bn worldwide.

Director Todd Phillips biggest opener was 2011’s The Hangover Part II with $85.94m (taking $254.46m) and 2009’s The Hangover $44.97m (taking $277.32m); his 10 films have taken $1.03bn in the US and $2.11bn worldwide.

The big question is how Joker will hold as while it received positive reviews audience reaction has been much more polarised so is likely to drop upwards of 60% in its second weekend this should be enough for Joker to hold #1 spot from Gemini Man this weekend but will see Maleficent: Mistress of Evil replace it in two weeks’ time.

Opened with $32.7m on Friday from 73 territories and took $140.5m over the weekend internationally and $234m worldwide; 598^th biggest film worldwide between The Blair Witch Project and Unbreakable; 108^th biggest Warner Bros film worldwide between Crazy Rich Asians and A.I; 29^th biggest worldwide of 2019 between John Wick: Chapter 3 — Parabellum and Glass

• Abominable – Universal Pictures 

Dropped 41.8% in its second weekend taking $11.92m and $37.75m

Abominable is the 36^th biggest Dreamworks Animation film between The Road to El Dorado and Sinbad: Legend of the Seven Seas.

2^nd weekends

2018’s Smallfoot dropped 37.5% taking $14.4m and $42.26m taking $83.24m

2009’s Cloudy with a Chance of Meatballs dropped 17.4% taking $25.03m and $60.47m taking $124.87m

2010’s Legend of the Guardians: The Owls of Ga’Hoole dropped 32.4% taking $10.88m and $30.07m taking $55.67m

2011’s The Lion King 3D dropped 27.3% taking $21.92m and $61.47m taking $94.24m

2012’s Hotel Transylvania dropped 36.4% taking $27.05m and $76.71m taking $148.31m

2013’s Cloudy with a Chance of Meatballs 2 dropped 38.4% taking $20.95m and $60.1m taking $119.79m

2014’s The Boxtrolls dropped 30.7% taking $11.97m and $32.09m taking $50.83m

2015’s Hotel Transylvania 2 dropped 31.5% taking $90.73m taking $169.7m

2017’s The LEGO Ninjago Movie dropped 43% taking $11.64m and $35.2m taking $59.28m

Abominable is Dreamworks Animations 37^th animated film since Antz in 1998 taking $5.63bn in the US and $15.09bn worldwide.

Took $24.6m from 45 territories (including $11.2m from China) $38.5m total and $76.3m worldwide; opens in 10 more territories this weekend including the UK.

 

• Downton Abbey – Focus Features

Dropped 44.3% in its third weekend taking $7.98m and $73.61m

3^rd biggest Focus Features film ever between Coraline and London Has Fallen by next weekend should overtake both 2009’s Coraline and 2005’s Brokeback Mountain $84.0m to become their biggest film ever in the US.

Julian Fellowes 2001 film Gosford Park opened limited $241,219 taking $41,308,615

3^rd weekends

2017’s Murder on the Orient Express dropped 4.6% taking $13.17m and $74.36m of $102,826,543

2008’s Mamma Mia! dropped28.9% taking $12.61m and $87.47m of $144,130,063            

Took $6.6m from 37 territories and $61.8m total and $135.4m worldwide# #6 biggest Focus Features film worldwide between Darkest Hour and Atonement; #1,218 biggest worldwide between American Made and Cheaper by the Dozen 2.

• Ad Astra – 20th Century Fox

Dropped 58.1% in its third weekend taking $4.19m and $43.29m

#43 biggest 2019 film between Wonder Park and A Dog’s Way Home; #235 biggest 20^th Century Fox film in the US between Wall Street and Soul Food; #206 biggest sci-fi film between The One and Star Trek: Nemesis; #1,966 biggest film in the US between West Side Story and Tears of the Sun

Ad Astra is holding similarly to 1997’s Contact and 2016’s Arrival; will face tough competition over the next two weeks with Joker and Gemini Man. Highlights the problem it had with its date as seen with over previous years opening films targetting similar demographics so close to each other just cannibalizes them and then allows Disney to come through the middle with Maleficent: Mistress of Evil in three weeks’ time.

Ad Astra is already 20^th Century Fox’s 3^rd biggest film of 2019 between Dark Phoenix and Breakthrough showing how disappointing the year has been and will come short to Alita: Battle Angel $85.71m

Ad Astra had similarities to

2002’s Solaris dropped 77% taking $540,606 of $14.56m of $14,973,382

1997’s Contact dropped 39.8% taking $9.7m and $64.97m of $100,920,329

While Grown up autumn released sci-fi films have been popular at the box over recent years

3^rd weekends

2013’s Gravity dropped 30.5% taking $30.02m and $169.56m of $274,092,705     

2014’s Interstellar dropped 45.8% taking $15.34m and $120.93m of $188,020,017             

2015’s The Martian dropped 42.4% taking $21.3m and $143.59m of $228,433,663

2016’s Arrival dropped 5.6% taking $11.45m and $62.56m of $100,546,139           

2017’s Blade Runner 2049 dropped 52.5% taking $7.35m and $74.2m of $92,054,159       

First Man dropped 41.6% taking $4.86m and $37.8m of $44,936,545        

Took $7.3m from 47 territories and $67.7m total and $111.4m worldwide; UK $6.9m; France $6.8m; Japan $5.5m; Russia $4.7m; Spain $4.6m; Korea $3.7m;; Mexico $3.5m; Australia $3.4m; Germany $2.9m; #48 biggest 2019 film worldwide between Wonder Park and Hustlers; #1,450 biggest film worldwide between White Chicks and The 5th Wave and #181 biggest 20^th Century Fox film worldwide between Tooth Fairy and Porky’s.

• It: Chapter Two – Warner Bros

Dropped 48.1% in its fifth weekend taking $5.31m and $201.16m;

It the 7^th biggest film of 2019 overtaking Us and John Wick: Chapter 3 – Parabellum; #5 biggest horror in the US between The Exorcist and A Quiet Place.

#203 biggest film in the US between World War Z and The Mummy Returns; #39 biggest Warner Bros film in the US between Batman Begins and Godzilla

Taking 32% less than 2017’s It Chapter One which took $60.1m in its second weekend and $218.81m 30% more than It Chapter Two.

The divide between the megamovie box office and the rest has grown this year, is currently a $160m+ gap between #6 biggest film Aladdin $354.8m and #7 Us $175m, after It opened 26% lower than the original film it will be the first of several this fall that are likely to fill that gap with Joker, Gemini Man, Maleficent: Mistress of Evil and Terminator: Dark Fate most likely to join It.

Stephen King has published 54 novels including 7 under the name Richard Bachman, 6 non-fiction books and almost 200 short stories. Over 40 have been adapted into films taking over $1.68bn in the US and $2.15bn worldwide.

Took $4.6m from 78 territories taking $234.5m and $436.7m worldwide; #260 biggest film worldwide between Warcraft and The Greatest Showman; 13^th biggest worldwide in 2019 between The Secret Life of Pets 2 and Alita: Battle Angel; #54 biggest Warner Bros film worldwide between The Matrix Revolutions and Sex and the City; UK: $21.7m; Mexico: $20.8m; Germany $17.4m; Russia: $17m; Brazil: $11m; Italy: $10.5m; Australia: $9.8m; France: $9.4m; Spain: $9m; Indonesia: $5.5m; Korea: $4.2m; Peru: $4.1m

• Hustlers- STX

Dropped 43.9% in its fourth weekend taking $6.39m and $91.41m

90s stripper movies 1995’s Showgirls took $20.35m; 1996’s Striptease took $33.1m and $113.3m worldwide

Hustlers has become STX third biggest film in the US after Bad Moms and The Upside and should become their third $100m+ film.

Took $1.9m internationally and $18.7m from 26 territories (#3,111 biggest international film between A Cinderella Story and Bride & Prejudice) and $110.2m worldwide; #6 biggest STX film worldwide between The Upside and I Feel Pretty; #49 biggest 2019 film worldwide between Ad Astra and Pet Sematary and #1,458 biggest film worldwide between Free Birds and Peter Pan: Return to Neverland.

• Judy – Roadside Attractions

Up 57.8% in its second weekend adding 996 screens taking $4.58m and $9.05m

Renee Zellweger has been praised for her performance as Judy Garland and is expected to be nominated for Best Actress with the film taking $12m+.

• Lucy in the Sky – Fox Searchlight

Opened with $54,058 from 37 screens

After receiving poor reviews Fox Searchlight have dumped the film out and its unlikely to go any wider.

 

UK Box Office Predictions

Joker will likely drop up to 60% in its second weekend taking £5m+ which should be enough to beat Will Smith’s Gemini Man which feels like it’s a 90s action thriller (Enemy of the State) made 20 years late, which it was as was originally developed at Disney in the late 90s but the technology wasn’t good enough.

How Gemini Man opens will see if Will Smith is back as while he might have starred in Aladdin (opened with £7,066,773 taking £37,166,288) most people didn’t go to see it because it was a Will Smith film. Will Smith’s films since MIB 3 in 2012 have underperformed at the box office (Collateral Beauty, Concussion, Focus, Winter’s Tale and After Earth) apart from 2016’s Suicide Squad,

After Gemini Man Will Smith next stars vocally in Spies in Disguise and then Bad Boys for Life opening 17 years after Bad Boys 2 and 25 years after Bad Boys as Gemini Man Bab Boys feels like it’s a 90s film made two decades too late will younger audiences be interested in these action thriller  their parents enjoyed.

1998’s Enemy of the State opened with £1,420,216 (£2,544,407 inflation inflated) taking £11,299,124 (£20,243,096 inflation inflated).

The film will be released in 120fps 3D 4K early buzz said it was the best 3D film in years and needs to be seen in 3D as Gravity; 2016’s Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk was shown in only a handful of screens in the format worldwide.

In March Paramount Pictures asked exhibitors to embrace the format but the problem is that as its only one film will exhibitors be willing to install it. In 1993 Steven Spielberg was launching DTS demanding all cinemas to be fitted with it, but Paramount doesn’t have enough power to demand this, if Disney demanded it for Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker it would be fitted in thousands of cinemas worldwide.

Abominable is the first of three films opening for half-term holidays with Maleficent: Mistress of Evil and Shaun The Sheep Movie: Farmageddon opening next weekend but has previews this weekend in to support MediCinema charity.

Abominable opens almost a year to the day Smallfoot opened that was also the story about a yeti and a human; 2028’s Smallfoot opened with £2,324,189 taking £10,932,839.

It is Universal Pictures second Dreamworks Animation release (after How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World opened with £5,323,448 taking £19,281,679) and their first original film and Dreamworks Animations first original film since 2013’s Turbo (opened £3,892,774 including £1,765,953 previews taking £10,932,902) a critical and box office flop.

Also opening is The Day Shall Come Chris Morris follow-up to Four Lions (opened in May 2010 in the UK taking £608,608 from 115 screens; expanding into 218 screens in its second weekend taking £496,649 and £1,444,364 going on to take £2,928,884.).

Was surprising that the film is opened in the US two weeks before the UK failing to find an audience despite the UK will be its key market but eOne had success opening Chris Morris’s former cohort Armando Iannucci’s The Death of Stalin also opening in October (Chris Morris and Armando Iannucci 25 years ago made TV series The Day Today, news spoof fake news show that also launched Alan Partridge which was a spin-off of 1991 On the Hour a spoof radio news magazine show. Chris Morris went on to make Brass Eye and Armando Iannucci The Thick of In and In The Loop.

The Death of Stalin opened in the UK October 2017 with £995,458 from 138 screens expanding to 314 screens in its second weekend taking £812,288 and £5,013,045 total;

 

Opening in UK Next Week

• Shaun The Sheep Movie: Farmageddon – Studiocanal

Stop-motion animated sci=fi comedy sequel to 2015’s Shaun the Sheep Movie produced by Aardman Animations; featuring the voices of Justin Fletcher,  John Sparkes, Kate Harbour and Rich Webber and directed by Will Becher and Richard Phelan

In September 2015 Studiocanal announced they were making a sequel to Shaun the Sheep Movie (opened with £2,095,061 in February ahead of half-term holidays taking £13,675,389)

In 2015 Shaun the Sheep Movie was Studiocanal’s 4^th biggest film in the UK it is now its 6^th biggest film after Paddington 2 (£42.64m); Paddington (£37.91m); Legend (£18.2m); The Imitation Game (£15.95m); Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy (£14.13m).

A Shaun The Sheep Movie: Farmageddon is Studiocanal’s third film made by Aardman Animations and currently have Chicken Run 2 in development;

Aardman Animations previously made

2000’s Chicken Run (opened £3,848,755 (£6,315,457 inflation inflated) taking £29,514,237 (£48,430,180 inflation inflated)

2005’s Wallace & Gromit: The Curse of the Were-Rabbit (opened £9,374,932 (£14,370,915 inflation inflated) taking £32,007,310 (£49,064,284 inflation inflated)

2006’s Flushed Away (opened £3,106,874 (£4,606,084 inflation inflated) taking £10,749,860 (£15,937,164 inflation inflated)

2011’s Arthur Christmas (opened £2,112,516 taking £20,994,673)

2012’s The Pirates! In an Adventure with Scientists! (opened £2,176,195 taking £16,539,738)

2018’s Early Man (opened £2,020,653 taking £11,205,643)

A Shaun The Sheep Movie: Farmageddon has weekend previous ahead of opening the original film didn’t have which will be against Dreamworks Animations Abominable opening the weekend before. In 2015 Shaun the Sheep Movie faced similar tough competition from Big Hero 6 opening the weekend before taking 47% more (£20,123,298).

Teaser trailer was shown before 2018’s Early Man with first teaser trailer released in December 2018, first trailer released in April 2019 and second trailer in July 2019.

A Shaun The Sheep Movie: Farmageddon highlights the dependency independent distributors have on one film taking a large percentage of their annual box office with the sequel likely to take up to 75% of Studiocanal’s box office for 2019; its their 17^th film released in 2019 taking £7m to date.

• Maleficent: Mistress Of Evil – Disney

Fantasy adventure sequel to sequel 2014’s Maleficent starring Angelina Jolie, Elle Fanning, Sam Riley, Imelda Staunton, Juno Temple, Lesley Manville, Chiwetel Ejiofor, Ed Skrein, and Michelle Pfeiffer and directed by Joachim Rønning.

After the original film was released in 2014 Angelina Jolie said a sequel was likely, in 2015 Disney announced the sequel and in April 2016 she signed up to star.

The film was original set for release in May 2020 but was brought forward 9 months in March 2019 with Artemis Fowl moving to its May 2020 slot; teaser trailer was released in May and first trailer in July.

Maleficent: Mistress Of Evil is Disney’s first current reimagination sequel previously making 102 Dalmatians in 2000 sequel to 1996’s 101 Dalmatians; Disney are currently in production with a second reimagination Cruella set for release in May 2021. After releasing for reimaginations this year have only Mulan dated for 2020 with Cruella the only one also currently dated for 2021.

2014’s Maleficent opened with £6,590,071 (including £2,767,018 previews) taking £19,292,000

13^th Disney reimagination since Alice in Wonderland in 2010 and first sequel; the 13 films have taken almost £388m in the UK and almost £396m inflation inflated;

• Official Secrets – eOne

Drama starring Matt Smith, Matthew Goode, Adam Bakri, Indira Varma, and Ralph Fiennes and directed by Gavin Hood; had its world premiere at the Sundance Film Festival receiving positive reviews highlighting Keira Knightley’s performance.

Had its UK premiere on October 11^th at the London Film Festival; opened in the US in August on platform release with $64,965 taking $1,687,546 to date expanding to 485 screens.

• Zombieland: Double Tap – Sony Pictures

Zombie comedy sequel to 2009’s Zombieland starring Woody Harrelson, Jesse Eisenberg, Emma Stone, Abigail Breslin, Bill Murray, Rosario Dawson, Zoey Deutch, Luke Wilson and Dan Aykroyd and directed by Ruben Fleischer.

The film opens almost 10 years to the day the original Zombieland film opened in the US.

Zombieland opened October 2009 with £1,240,984 taking £3,375,412 opening #2 to Up #1 opening with £6,411,836

Opening in US Next Week

• Maleficent: Mistress Of Evil – Disney

Many sequels (including It Chapter Two) have opened with about 30% less than previous instalments and tracking would suggest Maleficent: Mistress Of Evil will do to as it was expected to open with $40m less than $69.43m the first film opened with in May 2014 taking $231.4m in the US and $758.53m worldwide.

Disney’s 15 reimaginations have taken $3.47bn in the US and $9.04bn worldwide with Dumbo, Aladdin and The Lion King taking $1.01bn this year in the US and $3.04bn worldwide.

• Zombieland: Double Tap – Sony Pictures

Zombieland: Double Tap is expected to open with $23–25m which would be similar to 2009’s Zombieland $24.73m opening (taking $75.59m). Surely a sequel opening 10 years later should be opening much bigger, as in 2009 Zombieland was an unknown over the years since it has become a cult classic so surely should be a bigger audience for the sequel.

It always surprises me when these long gap sequels take far less than their original films asking why bother making these sequels so many years after? This question will surely be asked many times next year with many long gap sequels being released.  

• Jojo Rabbit – Fox Searchlight

Black comedy starring Roman Griffin Davis, Thomasin McKenzie, Waititi, Rebel Wilson, Stephen Merchant, Alfie Allen, Sam Rockwell, and Scarlett Johansson and written and directed by Taika Waititi based on the book Caging Skies by Christine Leunens.

Had its world premiere at the Toronto Film Festival winning the People’s Choice Award polarised critics receiving both praise and criticism and comparison with 1997’s Life Is Beautiful.

In August it was reported that during a screening a Disney executive grew audibly uncomfortable, worrying aloud that the material would alienate Disney fans.

Taika Waititi previously directed quirky indie films What We Do in the Shadows and Hunt for the Wilderpeople before directing Thor: Ragnarok which was a critical and box office success and will direct the fourth film Thor: Love and Thunder next year, before that he will direct Next Goal Wins based on the 2014 documentary.

While Disney might own 20^th Century Fox JoJo Rabbit is being released under Fox Searchlight so is no direct connection to Disney. This is similar to in the early 90s when Disney acquired Miramax and released films like Quentin Tarantino’s Pulp Fiction and Kill Bill but there was never that concern that they were being released by Disney. Likewise Disney created Touchstone Pictures in the early 80s and Hollywood Pictures in the late 80s to make films targetting older audiences and Disney would only release family friendly films through the Disney brand.

When Disney acquired 20^th Century Fox thought that they would keep Fox and Fox Searchlight as brands like Pixar, Lucasfilm, Marvel and Disney and that Fox would be Touchstone Pictures 2.0.

The question is will Disney fold 20^th Century Fox into Disney with Disney being the distributor of their films which would see the executives fears come true. Is a need to separate these films from the brand, that is if Fox Searchlight will be allowed to continue to make these edgy darker films.

While Disney announced the content that will be on Disney+ streaming from next month there was very little 20^th Century Fox content included as it will be up to PG-13, the expectation is that Hulu will be the home for all other content, as Disney themselves have a few R-rated films that the Disney executive would surely be amazed to hear.

While Disney have had huge success at the box office over recent years after buying Pixar, Marvel and Lucasfilm they are the one studio that has yet to win a Best Picture Oscar, they went close this year with Black Panther nominated for Best Picture; The English Patient in 1996 and Chicago in2002 were the last times Disney were connected to a Best Picture winner while they owned  Miramax.

Since then Fox Searchlight has won Best Picture Oscar for Slumdog Millionaire, 12 Years a Slave, Birdman, and The Shape of Water and won 15 other Oscars and The Full Monty, Sideways, Little Miss Sunshine, Juno, Black Swan, 127 Hours, The Tree of Life, The Descendants, Beasts of the Southern Wild, The Grand Budapest Hotel, Brooklyn, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri and The Favourite have also been nominated for Best Picture.

Over the last 20 years Fox Searchlight have released 186 films taking $2.66bn in the US.

In a recent interview the head of Fox Searchlight said it has been business as usual since Disney acquired 20^th Century Fox and will probably run Fox Searchlight as they did Miramax in the 90s; as its parent studio has had a disappointing year so far with Ready or Not taking $28.61m its current biggest film of the year but Jojo Rabbit depending on its award success could take similar to 2017’s Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri.

Jojo Rabbit is likely to have a similar platform release as Three Billboards, 12 Years A Slave and The Favourite opening in 4 screens then expanding over 4 weeks (The Favourite didn’t plan in over 1,000 screens until its 10^th weekend), but this would see Jojo Rabbit open wide against Ford v Ferrari (20^th Century Fox’s big Oscar contender).

• The Lighthouse – A24

Black-and-white horror starring Willem Dafoe and Robert Pattinson and directed by Robert Eggers; gad its world premiere at the Cannes Film Festival receiving critical acclaim highlighting the performances of Dafoe and Pattinson.