UK Box Office June 16th – 18th 2023

1. The Flash – £4,252,532 – NE

Took £818k Friday (19.5%); £1.23m Saturday (29.2%); £1.05m Sunday (25%).

Previews took £1,077,110 (25.33% of opening) £624k Wednesday and £455k Thursday.

356^th biggest opening between Wall·E and Kingsman: The Secret Service (close to Ghostbusters Afterlife, Big Hero 6, Godzilla and Mission: Impossible) and 545^th biggest inflated between Ted 2 and Captain Phillips (close to Starship Troopers, Lethal Weapon 4, Crocodile Dundee and Mars Attacks).

67^th biggest comic-book opening between Superman Returns and Fantastic Four: Rise of the Silver Surfer (close to Batman and Robin, X-Men, X-Men: Dark Phoenix and Fantastic Four) and 82^nd biggest inflated between Ant-Man and X-Men: Dark Phoenix (close to The Mask, Superman III, Green Lantern and Blade).

14^th biggest DC opening between Batman Begins and Shazam! (Close to Aquaman, Batman Forever, Shazam! And The Suicide Squad) and 17^th biggest inflated between Shazam! And The Suicide Squad.

10^th biggest opening of the year between Puss in Boots: The Last Wish and Dungeons & Dragons

Opened in 660 cinemas 59^th widest opening similar to DC League of Super-Pets and Shazam! Fury Of The Gods; the 167^th 600+ cinema opening since 2015’s Jurassic World; does tell the whole story as these films play on multiple screens in these cinemas and The Flash played on 1,652 screens.

The 5-day opening was 7.7% of the US opening (similar to Justice League and Aquaman) and the 3-day opening was 5.8% (similar to Spider-Man Homecoming, Black Widow, Solo: A Star Wars Story and Aquaman).

Despite receiving positive reviews (72% Rotten Tomatoes) the arrival of The Flash has been muted due to several reasons; released 9 years after the TV series started in 2014, 6 years after The Flash first appeared on screen in Batman Vs Superman and then the misconduct allegations against Ezra Miller. This meant the premiere on Monday (June 12th) was subdued despite the very positive buzz that started with Tom Cruise saying how much he loved it in March, the positive reactions to CinemaCon and the embargo ended 8 days before opening, often for DC film its less than 48 hours.

The Flash comic-book character is lesser-known internationally, The Flash TV series has been on Sky One/Max since its launch; the first episode got a 629k audience on Sky One in October 2014 (compared with 13m in the US on CW) compared with 1.3m for Gotham on Channel 5.

The Flash was fait accompli long before the opening, due to multiple delays and studio bosses seeing multiverse as they did with Ready Player One as a way to stuff as many Warner Bros characters in the film as possible) which saw it being gazumped by many other multiverse films. As it was originally due to open as part of Suicide Squad, Wonder Woman, Aquaman, and two Justice League films, Shazam, Cyborg and Batman Vs Superman Warner Bros announced in October 2014.

The Flash was originally due to open in March 2018, it was then dated for July 2022, then November 2022 and moved due to Black Panther 2. It was then moved to June 23rd the 34th anniversary of Tim Burton’s Batman but then brought forward a week after Indiana Jones 5 was moved to June 30. This would have opened before Spider-Man: No Way Home, Doctor Strange 2, Everything Everywhere, Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania and Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse.

Since 2013’s Man of Steel DC has tried to build a similarly extended universe as MCU but has struggled both critically and at the BO, the positive has been they tried different things rather than repeating the same formula Marvel have done for the last 15 years with films like Suicide Squad, Wonder Woman, Shazam!, Joker and Birds of Prey. James Gunn join DC Studios announcing a new slate in January.

The 14 DC Extended Universe films have taken over £330m since Man of Steel opened 10 years ago.

Having a 5-day opening and the poor buzz would expect The Flash to drop upwards of 60% this weekend taking about £1.6m which will set up potentially a three-way battle for #1 as Across The Spider-Verse will likely have a similar drop as last weekend, while the 5-day opening of No Hard Feelings could come close to both if Jennifer Lawrence fans come out as they did for Passengers.

• 2. Spider-Man: Across The Spider-Verse – £2,614,173 – £20,300,416

Dropped 37% in the third weekend.

Took £511k Friday 20% (46.1% drop); £1.1m Saturday 43.2% (33% drop); £917k Sunday 36% (37.6% drop)

132^nd biggest third weekend between Ocean’s 11 and Spider-Man: The Movie (close to Black Panther Wakanda Forever and Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of The Crystal Skull, Spider-Man 3 and Men in Black 3) and 275^th biggest inflated between Transformers: Dark Of The Moon and Men In Black 2 (close to The Lego Movie 2, Jumanji, Jurassic Park 3 and Spider-Man: Far From Home).

21^st biggest comic-book third weekend between Black Panther Wakanda Forever and Spider-Man: The Movie (close to Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness, Guardians of the Galaxy Vol 3, Spider-Man 3 and Men in Black) and 36^th biggest inflated between Spider-Man Homecoming and Men in Black 2 (close to Deadpool 2, Spider-Man 2, Doctor Strange and Batman and Robin).

Much has been made about the hold of Across the Spider-Verse but it continues to hold similar to non-MCU Spider-Man films which was expected.

2018’s Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse increased 3% (Christmas holidays) £1,015,505 #6 from 513 screens and £5,878,855 of £10,040,340; #1 Mary Poppins Returns £7.44m; #2 Bumblebee £5.1m; #3 Aquaman £2.44m.

279^th biggest film between The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel and Babe (close to Robin Hood: Prince Of Thieves, The Mummy Returns, Minority Report and The Flintstones) and 544^th biggest inflated between The Holiday and Godzilla (2014) (close to Tintin: Secret of the Unicorn, The Lego Movie: The Second Part, Deep Impact and Pokemon: The First Movie).

• 3. The Little Mermaid – £1,323,769 – £22,028,857

Down 40% in the fourth weekend

Took £236k Friday 18.3% 51.3% drop (£485k); £600k Saturday 46.5% 28.8% drop (£843k); £444k Sunday 34.4% 53.4% drop (£952k).

211^th biggest fourth weekend between Captain America: Civil War and Hot Fuzz (close to The Bodyguard, Moulin Rouge, Roald Dahl’s Matilda The Musical and Last Christmas) and 389^th inflated between Parenthood and Batman Begins (close to Three Men And A Baby, Beauty and the Beast (1992), Jerry Maguire and Pocahontas).

6th biggest Disney reimagination fourth weekend between The Jungle Book (£2,139,629) and Cinderella (£1,083,245); similar to Maleficent: Mistress of Evil (£1,025,043); Oz: The Great and Powerful (£975,577) and Maleficent (£970,381); Aladdin took £1,557,766 more in its fourth weekend (£2,881,535) and The Jungle Book took £815,860 more (£2,139,629).

6^th biggest Disney reimagination after 24 days between Aladdin (£30,419,724) and Dumbo (£21,311,999)

For decades Disney would re-release their classic animation films to new generations (The Little Mermaid was re-released in the summer of 1998 opening £234,783 (£470,731 inflated) taking £1,768,481 (£3,545,739 inflated) always successful in cinemas and the 80s and 90s, (in the early 80s re-releases of animated classics including The Jungle Book and Snow White were the top 3 biggest films of the year). The cinema re-release would be followed by a home video release available for a limited time. In the 90s and 00s, Disney made direct-to-video sequels to their classic animated films.

The original The Little Mermaid animated film was first released in cinemas in October 1990 almost a year after its US opening in November 1989; was the 9th biggest film of 1990 between Gremlins 2: The New Batch and Parenthood taking (15.46x opening) £6,266,749 (£21,731,902 inflated).

The biggest Disney re-imaginations on fourth weekends:

2019’s The Lion King dropped 15% £4,366,824 #2 714 screens £59,913,197 77.8% of £76,023,435

2019’s Aladdin dropped 26% £2,881,535 #1 656 screens £30,419,724 82.9% of £36,710,978

2017’s Beauty and the Beast dropped 59% £2,759,448 #2 677 screens £58,485,266 70.9% of £72,507,458

2010’s Alice in Wonderland dropped 48% £2,496,673 #2 510 screens £34,817,788 82.6% of £42,169,542

2016’s The Jungle Book dropped 62% £2,139,629 #2 611 screens £36,835,516 79.6% of £46,238,425

But The Little Mermaid is holding closer to 2019’s Dumbo which took £927,804 #2 in its 4^th weekend 60% drop taking £21,311,999 84.8% of £25,142,945 and 2015’s Cinderella £1,083,245 #2 39% drop £17,401,313 81.8% of £21,281,271

236^th biggest film between Wonder Woman and Men In Black 2 (close to High School Musical 3, The Lion King (1994), Crocodile Dundee and Mrs Doubtfire) and 485^th inflated between Matilda (1996) and Spice World (close to Wayne’s World, The Devil Wears Prada, The Commitments and The Little Mermaid (1990).

If The Little Mermaid holds similar to Dumbo and Cinderella will end up taking £26m+ which would be much less than it was expected to take.

• 4. Transformers: Rise of the Beasts – £1,184,662 – £5,008,562

Down 62% in the second weekend

Took £216k Friday (19.1%) 69.9% drop (£717k); £484k Saturday (42.6%) 48.6% drop (£942k); £428k Sunday (37.7%) 47.4% drop (£814k).

852^nd biggest second weekend between Lethal Weapon 4 and The Secret Life of Walter Mitty (close to The X- Files, Honey, I Shrunk the Kids, Terminator: Dark Fate and Super 8) and 1,390th biggest inflated between The Texas Chainsaw Massacre and Bad Neighbours 2 (close to G. I. Joe, The Peacemaker, The Karate Kid Part 3 and Beetlejuice.).

2^nd weekend

2018’s Bumblebee dropped 65% taking £1,736,877 #2 and £9,118,933 71.5% of £12,760,693; Mary Poppins Returns #1 £ 4,444,023; Aquaman #4 £1,855,420; #6 Spider-man: Into The Spider-verse £878,768.

2017’s Transformers: The Last Knight dropped 65% taking £1,601,971 #3 and £7,942,613 83.2% of £9,540,299; Despicable Me 3 #1 £11,154,904; Baby Driver #2 £3,605,705.

2014’s Transformers: Age of Extinction dropped 84% taking £1,790,491 #3 and £15,516,101 81.3% of £19,074,771; Dawn Of The Planet Of The Apes #1 £8,705,995; How To Train Your Dragon 2 #2 £1,877,346

2011’s Transformers: Dark of the Moon dropped 55% taking £4,750,519 #1 and £19,701,418 70.7% of £27,862,654

2009’s Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen dropped 47% taking £4,368,024 #1 and £16,485,053 62.1% of £26,539,878.

2007’s Transformers dropped 73% taking £2,333,219 #2 and £14,516,560 63.5% of £22,863,864; The Simpsons #1 £4,027,220.

The 7 Transformer films have taken over £120m in the UK (£160m inflated), $1.58bn in the US and $4.84bn worldwide.

The ending of Rise Of The Beasts sets up the start of the Hasbro Cinematic Universe with a crossover with G.I Joe, but the big question is will this cinematic universe happen after the film is likely to come short of all of the Transformer films globally apart from Bumblebee.

While studios like Paramount are lacking in properties so are making sequels to films they wouldn’t normally make, of course, the studio does have the much-anticipated Mission Impossible Dead Reckoning Part 1 with Part 2 opening next June but will be the final film of the 28-year-old film series. The problem for Paramount is over the last decade they haven’t had the films to compete against the other studios Top Gun: Maverick was a one-off success for the studio, their first film since 2014’s Age of Extinction and 2011’s Dark of the Moon to take $1bn+ worldwide but Universal have had 6 $1bn+ films over that period. Things of course would have been far different for the studio but poor management decisions in not acquiring Marvel before Disney and holding on to Indiana Jones rights have given their rivals massive success.

• 5.      The Greatest Days – £536,955 – NE

Took £131k Friday (34.3%); £147k Saturday (38.5%); £98k Sunday (25.6%)

Included £147,720 reviews (27.9% of the opening weekend)

Despite receiving very positive reviews The Greatest Days like so many other British feel-good films struggled to find an audience as recent openings of Harold Fry and Allelujah with £784,698 and £715,783, but they were of course playing to an older audience.

When films like The Greatest Days have soft openings go back to the idea Lionsgate had in 2014 that prices for British films should be lower saying “Something drastic” was needed to reverse falling admissions, predictably UKCA rejected the idea but over the years since it only got worse. With the release of The Full Monty TV sequel on Disney+ released last week always wondered if the original film was released today would it have been a similar success, as would exhibitors reduced showtimes in its second weekend, as the film opened #2 before moving to #1 in the second weekend. As so many feel-good British films have opened over the years since but never come close and these kinds of films were the mainstay of British cinema for decades.

British audiences do like their musicals as seen by the recent performance of I Wanna Dance with Somebody opening with £3,325,458 and Roald Dahl’s Matilda The Musical £4,135,418. The writer of The Greatest Days also wrote the script for Calendar Girls (opened 20 years ago in September) with £1,855,986 taking £20,418,067.

While Take That Event Cinema concerts have been very popular 2019’s Take That – Greatest Hits Live (Concert) opened £1,834,379 #5 from 606 screens; 2017’s Take That: Wonderland Live from the O2 £1,004,918 #5 from 481 screens and 2015’s Take That Live £965,000 #2 from 421 screens, but of course they were live concert performances with inflated ticket prices.

A better comparison is 2019’s Fisherman’s Friends opening £1,154,865 #2 from 506 screens taking £7,435,950 and 2013’s Sunshine on Leith opening £770,239 #3 from 400 screens taking £4,621,475.

The Greatest Day has similarities with films including Mamma Mia!, 1995’s Muriel’s Wedding (opened £661,588 from 179 screens taking £7,914,502 and £18,126,029 inflated); 2013’s One Chance opened £717,857 #6 from 403 screens taking £2,477,662 but instead opened similar to 2014’s Walking on Sunshine opened £403,490 #7 from 360 screens taking £1,261,744.

And 2007’s underrated Across The Universe featuring Beatles songs only opened with £27,471 #25 from 75 screens.

The Greatest Day is the first film released by the new British film distributor Elysian Films founded in 2018 by Danny Perkins who also co-founded Optimum Releasing in 1999 acquired by Studiocanal in 2006.

Over the last few decades, there have been many attempts by British companies to set up UK operations and they have either overstretched themselves to try to make a name for themselves by acquiring high-profile films that fail to meet expectations (First Independent Films G.I Jane and White Squall) STX (The Irishman) Guild Pictures released many high-profile films made by Carolco Pictures in the 90s was acquired by Pathe in 1992. Get acquired like Redbus set up in 1999, acquired by Helkon in 2001 and acquired by Lionsgate in 2005, Electric Pictures acquired by Alliance in 1997 and then acquired by eOne in 2013. Or get sold like Rank Film Distributors in 1997 and Polygram Films sold in 1998 to Universal Pictures.

The problem is that while there has been huge success from films made in the UK over the last few decades most of them have been financed by US studios despite the hundreds of millions that have been invested into the UK film industry by the National Lottery over the last 25+ years.

In the late 90s, film franchises were created by several British production companies that were tied to distributors and exhibitors and they would each get a lump sum of money from the lottery, the problem was it was poorly handled and very few were profitable.

UK Box Office

May admissions were 9,563,166, the lowest since 2000, and June will be similarly down on previous years. Despite all this talk for the last 18 months of the second golden age of cinema, there is little evidence to back that up, especially as data presented at CineEurope this week said Premium ticket prices are helping offset admissions. This was similar to a decade ago when 3D artificially inflated BO and why despite no growth between 2002 and 2012 BO still grew.

While there are lots of films opening over the next 6 months it’s hard to see any of them taking £40m+. BO will likely be down on 2022 levels until July 14 when Mission Impossible, Barbie and Oppenheimer open. This could see admissions for July be similar to 2019’s 18,646,247.

Surely, it’s time to realise, this is the new normal and to achieve real growth industry needs to change. The problem is industry talks a lot at events like CineEurope but is very slow to change as the issues facing the industry now date back to 2003 when after 17 years of steady growth admissions stopped increasing in the UK and the US.

UK box office in detail

This weekend’s top 10 box office took £10,857,760 down 1% from last weekend’s £10,750,760: 1,362,329 admissions down 1% from 1,348,903.

503^rd biggest top 10 of the last 21 years (out of 1,107) between 27 August 2010 #1 Grown Ups £2,006,945 (18.5%) and 01 February 2013 #1 Les Miserables £2,785,143 (25.7% of top 10) and 811^th biggest inflation inflated between 07 December 2018 #1 Ralph Breaks the Internet £2,446,583 (24.8% of top 10) and 01 June 2018 #1 Solo: A Star Wars Story £3,147,338 (32.1% of top 10).

The top 3 took £8,190,474 75.4% of the top 10; The Flash 32.2% (£4,252,532); Spider-Man: Across The Spider-Verse 14.9% (£2,614,173); The Little Mermaid 15.1% (£1,323,769);

421^st highest percentage (39.17%) #1 between 01 April 2022 #1 Sonic The Hedgehog 2 (39.18%) and 09 June 2006 #1 The Omen (39.16%).

610^th biggest admissions #1 (533,567) between 09 October 2015 The Martian (534,648) and 30 August 2013 One Direction: This is Us (531,680).

Down 24.7% from 2022 (£14,423,033); Lightyear (£3,718,002); Good Luck to You, Leo Grande (£238,640); The Spy Who Loved Me (Re: 2022) (£12,844); #1 Jurassic World: Dominion £5,717,882 2nd week 713 screens 53% drop (39.6% of top 10)

Up 58.7% from 2021; (£6,842,018) The Hitman’s Wife’s Bodyguard (£1,636,128); In the Heights (£1,073,68); Monster Hunter (£150,078); In The Earth (£58,538); #1 The Hitman’s Wife’s Bodyguard £1,636,128 1st week 522 screens (23.91% of top 10)

2020; Lockdown

Down 5.9% from 2019; (£11,536,988); Aladdin 24.9% (£2,881,535); Men in Black International 24.5% (£2,823,117); Rocketman 14.1% (£1,633,127); #1 Aladdin £2,881,535 26.6% drop fourth weekend (#1 for 4 weeks)

Down 18.6% from 2018: (£13,335,853); Hereditary (£1,863,913); The Happy Prince (£107,178); Super Troopers 2 (£101,881); Swan Lake – ROH, London 2017/18 (£71,257); #1 Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom 2nd week £7,220,952 50% drop 667 screens (54.1% of top 10)

Down 89% from 2017: (£5,745,646); Churchill (£392,732); Gifted (£305,323); Whitney “Can I Be Me” (£93,867); Rock Dog (£13,351); #1 Wonder Woman £1,868,607 3rd week 613 screens 46% drop (32.5% of top 10)

Down 26.1% from 2016: (£8,610,329); The Conjuring 2: The Enfield Case (£4,637,862); Gods of Egypt (£484,467); Barbershop: A Fresh Cut (£91,502); The Keeping Room (£26,199); #1 The Conjuring 2: The Enfield Case £4,637,862 1st week 504 screens (53.8% of the top 10)

Down 32.3% from 2015; (£16,046,393); Take That Live 2015 (£965,000); Mr Holmes (£741,080); Entourage (£632,754); The Longest Ride (£419,047); #1 Jurassic World £11,133,912 614 screens 2nd week 34% drop (69.4% of top 10)

Up 31.1% from 2014: (£8,284,805); The Fault in Our Stars (£3,434,334); Jersey Boys (£415,608); 3 Days to Kill (£324,560); Chinese Puzzle (£22,617); The Art of the Steal (£7,867); #1 The Fault in Our Stars £3,434,334 1st week 511 screens (41.4% of top 10)

Down 34.7% from 2013: (£16,628,964); Man Of Steel (£11,198,786); Much Ado About Nothing (£68,265); Admission (£33,557); #1 Man Of Steel £11,198,786 1^st week 572 screens 67.3% of top 10)

Up 36% from 2012 (£7,983,254); Rock of Ages (£1,003,107); Red Lights (£445,109); Fast Girls (£335,700); Jaws (Re: 2012) (£187,197); Cosmopolis (£116,519); A Royal Affair (£75,960); #1 Prometheus £2,009,955 3rd week 522 screens 36% drop (25.2% of top 10)

Down 4.2% from 2011; (£11,331,755) Green Lantern (£2,472,969); Bad Teacher (£1,958,656); The Beaver (£55,185); #1 Green Lantern £2,472,969 1st week 478 screens (21.8% of top 10)

Up 159.5% from 2010: (£4,184,382); Killers (£1,053,074); Wild Target (£282,498); Our Family Wedding (£96,385); Please Give (£49,940); MacGruber (£34,367); #1 Killers £1,053,074 1st week 446 screens (25.1% of top 10)

Up 20.5% from 2009; (£13,653,796); Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen £8,349,739; #1 Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen £8,349,739 1st week 516 screens (61.1% of top 10)

Up 38.9% from 2008; (£7,818,976); Adulthood (£1,203,319); Teeth (£235,658); The Edge of Love (£180,837); The Ruins (£123,507); The Escapist (£79,579); #1 The Incredible Hulk £1,870,800 2nd week 483 screens 43% drop (23.9% of top 10)

Down 10.6% from 2007: (£9,816,017); Fantastic Four: Rise of the Silver Surfer (£4,137,169); Vacancy (£565,936); #1 Fantastic Four: Rise of the Silver Surfer £4,137,169 1^st week 475 screens (42.1% of top 10)

Up 87.8% from 2006; (£5,781,153); The Fast and the Furious: Tokyo Drift (£1,813,359); Hard Candy (£527,910); Thank You for Smoking (£188,676); Imagine Me and You (£39,950); #1 The Fast and the Furious: Tokyo Drift £1,813,359 1st week 415 screens (31.3% of top 10)

Up 42.7% from 2005: (£7,664,880); Batman Begins (£4,427,802); Bombon – El Perro (£33,768); We Don’t Live Here Anymore (£28,954); #1 Batman Begins £4,427,802 1st week 514 screens (57.7% of top 10)

Up 41.4% from 2004 (£7,678,849); Mean Girls (£1,393,494); Jersey Girl (£226,970); The Whole Ten Yards (£61,405); #1 Harry Potter and the Prisoner of Azkaban £3,374,330 3rd week 534 screens 23% drop (43.9% of top 10)

Up 103.9% from 2003 (£5,325,585); 2 Fast 2 Furious (£2,747,875); Basic (£248,088); I’ll Be There (£14,829); #1 2 Fast 2 Furious £2,747,875 1st week 424 screens (51.6% of top 10)

Up 57.6% from 2002 (£6,888,015); The Musketeer (£131,338); Kissing Jessica Stein (£102,234); Hardball (£79,864); Before You Go (£58,387); #1 Spider-Man: The Movie £4,255,920 2nd week 509 screens 55% drop (61.8% of top 10)

Next Week 2022 (£14,973,318); Elvis (£4,023,573); The Black Phone (£1,384,344); George Michael Freedom Uncut (£68,399); First Blood (40th Anniversary 4K Restoration) (£11,880); #1 Elvis £4,023,573 1^st week 740 screens (26.9% of top 10)

US Box Office

• The Flash – Warner Bros

Opened with $55m; received mixed reviews (67% Rotten Tomatoes) and B CinemaScore.

Took $9.7m from Thursday midnights; similar to Venom ($10m); Doctor Strange ($9.4m), Aquaman ($9m); Wonder-Woman ($11m); Black Adam $7.6m.

Took $24.5m on Friday similar to Black Adam and Aquaman) with 74% of the audience male.

223^rd biggest opening between Gravity and The Karate Kid (close to Ant-Man, Fantastic Four (2005), The Incredible Hulk and X-Men).

Ahead of the opening, it was expected to open between $70m-$75m and on Friday it was expected to open up to $72m but it dropped down on Saturday to $60m but dropped even further on Sunday.

Recent DC openings Shazam! 2 ($30m); Black Adam ($67m); Birds of Prey ($33m); Shazam! ($53m)

Ahead of opening buzz was very positive for the film with Tom Cruise saying in March he loved it and Stephen King tweeting “As a rule, I don’t care a lot for superhero movies, but this one is special. It’s heartfelt, funny, and eye-popping.”

Maybe part of the problem was Warner Bros held a huge talker screening program seeing tens of thousands of people seeing it.

Normally would expect 30%+ of The Flash opening from IMAX/PLF but screens are split this weekend with The Flash in 250+ IMAX screens and Elemental in 2,400 3D: 275 PLF and 140 4D/D-Box screens; despite this 42% of its opening came from IMAX/PLF showing how fan led the audience was for the film and why it will be very front-loaded dropping 60% next weekend despite no major films opening.

In 2011 Green Lantern opened the same week with $53.2m taking $116.6m and $219.85m worldwide and was also the weekend Man of Steel opened 10 years ago with $116.61m taking $291.04m and $668.04m worldwide which started this new slate of DC films.

Warner Bros release two more DC films this year Blue Beetle in August and Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom in December with Joker: Folie à Deux in October 2024 and then Superman: Legacy and The Batman Part II in July and October 2025

Shazam! opened internationally with $102m from 79 territories (#1 in 60 of 79 territories) and $158.6m worldwide; top international China $30.9m; Mexico $6.2m; UK $5.3m; Russia $5.2m; Brazil $5.1m; Indonesia $4.1m; Korea $3.9m; Australia $3.4m.

Shazam 2 opened with $34m from 77 territories (ahead of opening expected to open with $80m-$85m worldwide) taking $5.1m worldwide from IMAX including $2.5m internationally.

Opened with $75m from 78 territories and $139m worldwide; China $13.8m; Mexico $9.4m; UK $5.3m; Korea $3.7m; Brazil $3.5m; Australia $3m; France $2.8m; Indonesia $2.6m; India $2.5m.

Took $15.6m from IMAX worldwide including $7.4m internationally.

• Elemental – Disney

Opened with $29.6m; received positive reviews (75% Rotten Tomatoes) and A CinemaScore.

Took $3.5m from Thursday midnights; $5.2m Lightyear; $2.4m Onward; Toy Story 3 $13.05m; Toy Story 4 $11.4m; Finding Dory $17.4m; The Incredibles 2 $16.3m.

It had the lowest-ever Pixar opening; the previous lowest were 2020’s Onward $39.11m taking $61.55m and 2015’s The Good Dinosaur $39.15m taking $123.08m; Lightyear opened with $50.57m and 201’s Coco $50.8m It.

624^th biggest opening between Creed and Insidious: The Last Key (close to Hercules, The Flintstones, The Muppets and Toy Story).

Elemental damage was caused premiering at Cannes, as critics are hasher at Cannes for studio films as it received a token 5-minute standing ovation as Indy 5. The problem with Pixar is that all but one of Pixar’s biggest openings (Inside Out $90.44m) since 2010 have been sequels. The problem with Pixar is that all but one of Pixar’s biggest openings (Inside Out $90.44m) since 2010 have been sequels. After the disappointing performance of Elemental, this will likely mean more sequels from Pixar including Toy Story 5 and Incredibles 3 after Inside Out 2 opens next year.

Pixar used to be the most creative studio in Hollywood but then they released far superior Soul, Luca and Turning Red on Disney+ and gave the vastly inferior Lightyear a theatrical release. While Indy 5 will meet a similar fate (performing like 2008’s Crystal Skull) as it also should have never premiered at Cannes.

Elemental received its world premiere out of competition at the Cannes Film Festival, receiving a mixed reception. The plot of the film is like many other Pixar film formulas, what if x had feelings? Toys with feelings (Toy Story), monsters with feelings (Monsters Inc), robots with feelings (Wall-E), feelings with feelings (Inside Out) and now elements with feelings (Elemental). Neither Elemental nor Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny should have premiered at the Cannes Film Festival as the audience watching the films are hasher on blockbusters screened over a month before opening allowing negativity to foster.  

While 23 Pixar films have taken $6.22bn since 1995 ($8.5bn inflation inflated) and almost $15bn worldwide. The problem is taken 2019’s Toy Story 4 and 2018’s Incredibles 2 are away their last original hit was 2015’s Inside Out and have a sequel dated for next year, after Elemental’s poor opening that will likely be joined by Toy Story 5 and Incredibles 3.

Lightyear opened with $34m from 43 territories and $85.17m worldwide; Mexico $8.1m; UK $4m; Argentina $2.6m; Brazil $2.5m; Australia $2.1m. Elemental has a more staggered international release opening in the UK on July 7^th.

It opened with $15m from 17 territories.

• Transformers: Rise of the Beasts – Paramount Pictures

Dropped 67% in the second weekend taking $20.7m and $101.32m

425^th biggest second weekend between The Smurfs and True Lies (close to G.I. Joe: Retaliation, Terminator 2: Judgment Day, Taken and Tomorrow Never Dies).

The box office of the Transformers film series highlights the impact China has had on the global box office over the last 16 years and how the Transformers series wouldn’t have survived as long had it not been for the huge growth of China as has also been the case with Fast & Furious franchise.

Second weekends

2007’s Transformers dropped 47.5% taking $37.02m and $224m of $319.24m and $709.7m WW (55% international $37.2m China)

2009’s Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen dropped 61.2% taking $42.32m and $293.35m of $402.1m and $836.3m WW (51.9% international including $66m China)

2011’s Transformers: Dark of the Moon dropped 51.9% taking $47.1m and $261.07m of $352.39m and $1.12bn WW (68.6% international including $165.1m China)

2014’s Transformers: Age of Extinction dropped 63% taking $37.05m and $175.39m of $245.43m and $1.1bn WW (77.8% international including $301m China)

2017’s Transformers: The Last Knight dropped 62.2% taking $16.88m and $101.98m of $130.16m and $605.42m WW (78.5% international including $229m China)

2018’s Bumblebee dropped 3.5% taking $20.9m and $67.18m of $127.19m and $467.98m WW (72.8% international including $171m China)

The 7 Transformer films have taken over $1.58bn in the US and $4.84bn worldwide.

While Bumblebee received far better reviews than all of the other Transformer films it was also the lowest-grossing film of the series, but also had the lowest budget of the franchise $102m compared with $217m for the last Transformers film and $200m for Rise of the Beasts.

Took $37.2m from 68 territories and $174.3m total; China $60.6m; Mexico $13m; France $6m; UK $6.1m.

Took $16m worldwide from IMAX including $9.6m internationally.

• Spider-Man: Across The Spider-Verse – Sony Pictures

Dropped 51% in the third weekend taking $27.27m and $279.85m

81^st biggest third weekend between I Am Legend and How the Grinch Stole Christmas (close to Spider-Man 3, Shrek, The Incredibles and Spider-Man 2).

Across The Spider-Verse has already overtaken the lifetime total of Into the Spider-Verse, the reason is that it plays like a Spider-Man film as the audience seeing it is likely the same that saw No Way Home and other recent MCU films as seen by its third weekend being similar to Spider-Man 3 and Spider-Man 2. While opening so close to The Flash is another reason why the DC opened lower than expected.

20^th biggest animated film between Monsters, Inc. and Dr Seuss’ The Grinch; 117^th biggest between The Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn, Part 1 and Meet the Fockers; 3^rd biggest 2023 between Guardians of the Galaxy Vol 3 and The Little Mermaid; 34^th biggest comic-book film between Man of Steel and The Amazing Spider-Man; 10^th biggest Sony Pictures between Skyfall and The Amazing Spider-Man.

2018’s Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse increased 14.2% taking $18.79m and $104.12m of $190.24m and $384.25m WW, unlike live-action Marvel films the BO was almost 50/50 US and international.

Took $27.6m from 59 territories $209m total and $489.3m worldwide; China $33.9m; UK $20.3m; Mexico $19.9m; Australia $10.9m; Brazil $8m; France $6.9m; India $4.8m; Germany $4.5m; Italy $4.5m.  

• The Little Mermaid – Disney

Dropped 52% in the fourth weekend taking $11.05m and $253.01m

245^th biggest fourth weekend between Thor: The Dark World and Terminator 2: Judgment Day (Stuart Little, A Bug’s Life, Aladdin (1992) and Puss in Boots).

Holding similar to Cinderella #298 $10.17m and Oz the Great and Powerful #216 $11.7m rather than Beauty and the Beast #31 $23.65m; The Lion King #54 $20.2m; Alice in Wonderland #78 $17.7m; Aladdin #83 $17.3m; Maleficent #168 $12.91m; The Lion King (1994) #113 $40.88m).

139^th biggest between The Hangover Part II and Despicable Me; 346^th inflated between My Best Friend’s Wedding and How to Train Your Dragon; 4^th 2023 film between Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse and Ant-Man and the Wasp (close to Monsters University, The Incredibles, Maleficent and Oz the Great and Powerful).

The biggest Disney re-imaginations on fourth weekends:

2017’s Beauty and the Beast dropped 47.9% $23.65m #2 $430.94m 85.5% of $504.01m

2019’s The Lion King dropped by 47.5% $20.2m #3 $473.3m by 87.1% of $543.63m

2010’s Alice in Wonderland dropped 48.2% $17.7m #2 $293.53m 87.8% of $334.19m

2016’s The Jungle Book dropped 44% $24.48m #2 $287.6m 79% of $364m

2019’s Aladdin dropped 29.9% $17.3m #3 $264.04m 74.3% of $355.55m

Took $15.3m from 52 territories $212.4m total and $466m worldwide; UK $27.5m; Mexico $19.7m; Brazil $14.8m; Italy $12.3m; Australia $11.9m; France $11.2m; Japan $10.5m; Spain $10.2m; Germany $9.6m; Philippines $5.8m; Argentina $5.4m; Indonesia $5.1m.

270^th biggest worldwide between The Hangover and Bumblebee; 7^th biggest 2023 between Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse and Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania; 68^th biggest Disney film between Maleficent: Mistress of Evil and Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania (close to Aladdin (1992), Oz the Great and Powerful, Beauty and the Beast (1991) and Pretty Woman).

• Asteroid City – Focus Features

Opened $845,143 from 6 screens in New York and Los Angeles ahead of a wide release next weekend.

Wes Anderson films often have a one-week platform release before having a wide release.

Wes Anderson’s previous openings

2021’s The French Despatch opened #9 $1,348,804 from 52 screens expanding to 1,205 screens after 2 weeks taking $16.12m and $46.33m worldwide

2018’s Isle of Dogs opened #15 $1,620,294 from 27 screens and slowly expanded into 1,939 screens after 4 weeks taking $32.01m and $64.24m worldwide

2014’s The Grand Budapest Hotel opened #17 $811,166 from 4 screens slowly expanding into 1,467 screens over 6 weeks taking $59.3m and $172.93m worldwide             

2009’s Fantastic Mr Fox opened #24 $265,900 from 4 screens and expanded into 2,033 screens after 3 weeks taking $21m taking $46.47m worldwide

2012’s Moonrise Kingdom opened #15 at $522,996 from 4 screens and slowly expanded into 924 screens after 8 weeks taking $45.51m taking $68.26m worldwide

2007’s The Darjeeling Limited opened #37 $134,938 from 2 screens and slowly expanded into 698 screens after 5 weeks taking $11.9m taking $35.3m worldwide

Wes Anderson’s 10 directed films have taken $280m in the US and $550m worldwide; Asteroid City is Wes Anderson’s first film having previously directed 5 films for Fox Searchlight and four films for Disney.

Took $1.4m from 18 territories $1.73m total and $2.52m worldwide.

UK Box Office Top 10

UK Box Office Preview

The calm before the storm with The Flash and Spider-Verse likely battling it out for #1 with The Flash likely to drop between 65%-70% taking £1.3m-£1.6m in the second weekend and Spider-Verse dropping between 45%-50% taking £1.2m-£1.6m.

They could both be beaten by Jennifer Lawrence’s sex comedy No Hard Feelings opening Wednesday if it was to open similar to 2011’s Bad Teacher £1,958,656 #3 taking £7,642,887; 2014’s Sex Tape £1,431,058 #1 from 440 screens taking £4,321,004, but more likely to open similar to 2019’s Good Boys £844,169 #6 from 474 screens taking £3,069,323 and 2006’s Failure to Launch opened £874,999 #2 352 screens taking £2,657,334.

No Hard Feelings is Jennifer Lawrence’s first film since 2019’s X-Men: Dark Phoenix and 2018’s Red Sparrow before these starred in 2016’s Passengers, despite receiving poor reviews opened with £2,418,976 #2 from 569 screens taking £12,757,682. It is also her first comedy, but despite being a producer of the film she has the only full-frontal nude scene, there are men in sex scenes, but they are never shown fully naked. Would have expected that being a producer of the film Jennifer would have had more control over her role as that could alienate the female audience it was aimed at.

Wes Anderson’s films always receive critical acclaim, but they often struggle to break out into wider audiences. 2021’s The French Dispatch was his last film opening with £867,672 #6 from 315 screens taking £4,167,060. It opened half as much as his previous three films; 2018’s Isle of Dogs £1,641,509 taking £6,009,438; 2014’s The Grand Budapest Hotel opened £1,532,239 taking £10,978,014 and 2009’s Fantastic Mr Fox opened £1,517,312 taking £8,707,283.

The Little Mermaid will drop 40%-50% in its fifth weekend taking £0.6m-£0.9m with Transformers: Rise of the Beasts dropping 50%+ in its third weekend taking £0.5m-£0.7m.

Opening in two weeks

Might look from the outside a bit crazy for two major films to open the same weekend but they are targeting two very different demographics, with Barbie targeting under the 30s (but will likely play much wider) while Oppenheimer targets over 30 males but is unlikely to expand into other demographics. While Oppenheimer focuses on IMAX/PLF screens Barbie will play in all other screens.

Oppenheimer also must deal with the second weekend of Dead Reckoning Part 1 which will likely have a 70% drop having 7 day opening weekend and losing IMAX/PLF screens, but if it was to have a Top Gun: Maverick-sized opening it could still have a £5m+ second weekend.  Reaction to test screening in March for Dead Reckoning was reported “through the roof” with a running time of 185 mins, it was cut down to 156 mins early reaction has been positive saying it’s not as good as Fallout and its far too long. The embargo is lifted on July 5^th with the Rome premiere on June 19^th (premiere reaction has been positive) and the UK on June 22.

This could see the biggest weekends in the UK that didn’t have Bond/Star Wars or MCU films like the same weekend in 2010 taking £29,078,984 which saw Toy Story 3 #1 £21,187,264 and Inception #2 £4,172,568 2^nd weekend) with The Twilight Saga: Eclipse £1,436,792 and Shrek Forever After £1,223,759. But will also see Indy 5 and Elemental cannibalized within just over two weeks.

• Barbie – Warner Bros

Fantasy comedy based on the Barbie fashion dolls by Mattel starring an ensemble cast of Margot Robbie, Ryan Gosling, America Ferrera, Kate McKinnon, Issa Rae, Rhea Perlman and Will Ferrell and directed by Greta Gerwig.

The film was originally set up at Universal Pictures in 2009 and switched to Sony in 2014 with Amy Schumer and Anne Hathaway attached, Warner Bros acquired rights in 2018 and Margot Robbie was cast in 2019 with Gerwig signed to direct in 2021.

The teaser trailer was screened with Avatar: The Way of Water in December and it was well received by audiences. The trailer was released in May again and was very positively received. As with The Lego Movie until the trailer arrived for Barbie little was expected from it, but the trailers have been as charming and as fun as The Lego Movie were.

While it looks to have similarities with films like Enchanted, Clueless, Legally Blonde, 13 Going on 30, Confessions of a Shopaholic, Mean Girls, Pleasantville and even Little Women. These films feature a strong female protagonist, on a journey of self-discovery and feature meta-humour bringing Barbie into the real world and working against the prejudices people have. As the trailer says, “If you love Barbie, then this film is for you” and “hate Barbie, this film is for you”. As it feels like it will be a fun popcorn, perfect summer film, but surprisingly the film will likely be a 12A as its PG-13 in the US (due to suggestive references and brief language) while films like The Lego Movie were U so it will have an edge to it.

UK premiere July 12^th.

• Oppenheimer – Universal Pictures

Biographical thriller based on the 2005 book American Prometheus by Kai Bird and Martin J. Sherwin starring an ensemble cast including Cillian Murphy, Emily Blunt, Matt Damon, Robert Downey Jr., Florence Pugh, Rami Malek, Josh Hartnett and Kenneth Branagh and directed by Christopher Nolan.

Christopher Nolan fell out with Warner Bros after they announced in December 2020they were going simultaneously release their films in cinemas and on HBO Max due to COVID. In September 2021 was announced Universal Pictures would release his next film but it came with several demands from the director including a budget of $100m an equal marketing budget, a theatrical window of at least 100 days, 20% of the first-dollar gross, and Universal couldn’t release another film either three weeks before or after. Also, to release the film on film (70mm/35mm) and digital. MAX 70 mm (30) 3 in the UK (BFI IMAX; Vue Manchester; Science Museum; standard 70 mm (113) and 35mm (80).

It was filmed in IMAX with some sections of the film in IMAX black and white.

It’s Christopher Nolan’s first film not to be released in the US by Warner Bros since 2000’s Memento and internationally since 2002’s Insomnia.

Variety estimated with its budget and marketing costs it will need to take at least $400m to make a profit; Christopher Nolan’s previous original films.

2020’s Tenet ($205m budget) took $58.5m in the US and $365.3m worldwide; 2017’s Dunkirk ($150m+ budget) took $189.74m in the US and $527m worldwide; 2014’s Interstellar ($165m+ budget) took $188m in the US and $773.43m worldwide; 2010’s Inception ($160m+ budget) took $292.58m in the US and $870.1m worldwide.

Christopher Nolan’s biggest hits came when they open in a crowded marketplace in 2010. Inception was #1 for one week replaced by Toy Story 3 in its second weekend but had very long legs playing into September. So, while Tenet was never going to be the saviour of cinema as he and exhibitors believed opening it the weekend after Mission Impossible: Dead Reckoning Part 1 and against Barbie would likely benefit it.

The first trailer was released on July 22^nd, 2022, a second trailer played exclusively with Avatar: The Way of Water and the third with Guardians of the Galaxy Vol 3.

Was a 1989 film about the Manhattan Project Fat Man and Little Boy (Shadow Makers in the UK) starring Paul Newman, Dwight Schultz, Bonnie Bedelia and John Cusack and Roland Joffé, the film received poor reviews and flopped at the box office.

Oppenheimer will take IMAX/PLF screens off from Dead Reckoning Part 1 after only a week and will have those screens for three weeks. When Universal Pictures dated the film for July 21st in October 2021 Dead Reckoning Part 1 was set to be released on September 30^th, 2022 (was then delayed to July 14 in January 2022).

Indiana Jones 5 was already also dated for June 30^th when Paramount moved Dead Reckoning Part 1 to July 14 so they would have surely known doing so they would get IMAX screens for only a week. The problem for Paramount in adding the film after all of the others had been dated no time during the summer would give the film more than a week of IMAX/PLF screens. Paramount moved the UK release date from Thursday to Tuesday and now to Monday with Sunday midnight previews, likely impacting both Elemental and Indy 5.

It is a strange twist of fate that the two films open only a week apart but had COVID not happened we would have had the Tom Cruise Vs Christopher Nolan face/off on July 17^th as Top Gun: Maverick was due to open against Tenet. As Paramount was going to open Top Gun: Maverick two weeks later in Europe due to Euro 2020.

Would expect Oppenheimer to have a similar opening as 2017’s Dunkirk (£10,023,720) which similarly had Spider-Man: Homecoming (£9,369,846) and War for the Planet of the Apes (£7,195,773) opening over two weekends before. Dead Reckoning Part 1 and Barbie are likely to be tougher competition and the subject matter of Dunkirk made it play very strongly in the UK. While opening against Barbie at the start of the school summer holidays Barbie is likely to play to a much wider demographic, cinephiles will, of course, rush out to see Oppenheimer in 70mm IMAX but Dead Reckoning Part 1 and Barbie will likely be the bigger draw.

Exhibitors will be hoping Oppenheimer will have similar long legs to Inception playing in the top 10 for 8 weeks and Dunkirk for 10 weeks, rather than the 6 weeks Interstellar lasted, as the 100-day window will mean that it won’t be able to be released on VOD until at least Mid-October. While it will be interesting to see how exhibitors handle Oppenheimer after its opening three weeks as Christopher Nolan has given them everything, they wanted with the film the 100-day theatrical window so surely, they will need to play the film for 100 days?

UK premiere July 13^th.