UK/US Box Office June 22nd-24th Week 25 and UK BO Predictions

Top 5 Breakdown

1. Ocean’s Eight – £4,347,070 – NE

Took £2,042,638 from Mon-Thurs (46.99% of its opening) opened on Monday June 18^th as an alternative to the World Cup and England’s first game against Tunisia watched by over 18.3m their second game was against Panama on Sunday Lunchtime seen by 14m+.

Opening on Monday Warner Bros was hoping audiences would see Ocean’s Eight as an alternative to the World Cup but instead, it was more likely the continued growing appeal for Love Island for the key 16-34 female audience and the hot sunny weather throughout last week and the weekend.

As I have often said before extended weekends rarely work they just share out the box office over more days. Over the last 20 years, distributors keep extending film openings but as seen with films including Skyfall, Beauty and the Beast, Fifty Shades of Grey, Dunkirk if they are films audiences want to see they can still open with big box office in only three days.

As always when the film in second has a bigger Fri-Sun box office than the #1 the film I second claims it is the real #1 film, but all distributors use previous to inflate their opening weekends. Unless comScore and BFI say they won’t include any box office taken before Thursday midnight shows in the film’s opening weekend box office as is the case in the US still distributors will keep extending opening weekends.

Have been building a database of 550 biggest UK film openings since 2001 (earlier data isn’t as easily accessible freely IMDB data is scatty and not always correct) of the 331 have had their box office inflated with previews most one days but then others up to 14 days; 

With four days of previews Ocean’s Eight had the 281^st biggest opening weekend in the UK between Ghostbusters remake and Monsters vs. Aliens; while its inflated opening was 389^th between Life of Pi and Horton Hears a Who. Without previews, its opening was the 440^th biggest opening between The Holiday and Jack Reacher.

Ocean’s Eleven inflation inflated opening was #158; Oceans Twelve #291 and Ocean’s Thirteen #336.

A Peanuts Movie had the biggest percentage of its box office from previews taking 83.65% dropping 64.38% in its second weekend and Transformers Age of Extinction second taking 68.42% (6 days of previews) dropping 84.77%.

More recently Warcraft: The Beginning took 60% of its £3,623,725 opening dropping 80% in its second weekend and Baywatch 59% of its £4,631,244 opening dropping 75%

Ocean’s Eleven opened 13th February 2002 with £5.09m taking £2.07m

Ocean’s Twelve opened 4th February 2005 with £3.39m taking £12.03m

Ocean’s Thirteen opened 8th June 2007 with £3.02m taking £13.08m

The stars of Ocean’s Eight said female-led films are “misunderstood” by critics Sandra Bullock said,  “It would be nice if reviewers reflected who the film is for, like children should review children’s films, not a 60-year-old man” and said, “balancing out the pool of critics so that it reflects the world we are in, like we are trying to reflect the world that I live in and my friends live in”. Cate Blanchett said, “It’s Hollywood but it’s also the media, because a studio can support a film and it’s the invisible faces on the internet, and often male reviewers, who can view it through a prism of misunderstanding, and so I think that is a really big part of the equation.”

Two years ago, the female reboot of Ghostbusters received misogynistic comments and negativity that was partly down to the target audience and because the film was terrible. The difference between Ocean’s Eight was the spinoff was always conceived as a female version and the audience was older.

In December Sandra Bullock told potential online trolls: “I’ll tell you, we’ve got some feisty women that will fight right back,” in an interview for Entertainment Weekly. Soon after she said that the first trailer was released, and the reaction was positive as was for the trailers that followed. The only slight niggle for the trailers was the reveal of Anna Hathaway’s role as that would have been far better for the audience to see while watching the film rather than seeing it in the trailer.

2. Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom – £3,249,227 – £31,205,563

Dropping 55.01% in its third weekend; taking 33.61% less than Jurassic World after 19 days compared with £48,901,995 from 18 days.

Jurassic World dropped 48% – £5,776,475 and £48,901,995 (72.2%) of £67,737,241

Jurassic Park 3 dropped 25% – £1,353,560 and £ 12,362,926 (68,3%) of £18,108,325

Fallen Kingdom will now likely take about £45m over 30% less than Jurassic World £64.32m in 2015 and 6% less of Jurassic Park and 61%+ than its inflation inflated £47.79m took in 1993. While Fallen Kingdom has overtaken The Lost World: Jurassic Park £25.79m total this week it will also come short of its inflation inflated total £48.62. The only inflation inflated  Jurassic Park film it will overtake is the third film is seen as the worst film of the series it took £18.1m in 2001 which would be £33.54m.

Behind the fifth Jurassic Park film and the third rescue film its hard to  push the films any further than they have previously been. Saying that the ending of Fallen Kingdom sets up a Jurassic World we got to experience slightly in Jurassic Park The Lost World when the T-Rex escaped but the ending of Fallen Kingdom sees dinosaurs and humans together sharing the planet which feels like Jurassic World 3 will become Planet of the Dinosaurs.

While Jurassic World was very much a Jurassic Park remake Fallen Kingdom is the Lost World remake but instead of being in San Diego it’s in a stately home. While the writer might be correct when he said the first trailers came from the first hour the final trailer included footage from the final scenes which never makes any sense. Being the fifth film of the franchise, a trailer just needs to tease its audience as already has an audience so why do filmmakers need to put spoilers in the trailers? 

Director J.A. Bayona talked about how they shot a scene in the film where a dinosaur bit off  human arm without it getting an R rating by showing very little human blood. Another scene featuring Daniella Pineda was cut discussing her sexuality saying to Chris Pratt’s character “‘I don’t date men, but if I did, it would be you. It would gross me out, but I’d do it.”

The death of the Brachiosaurus on Isla Nublar when the island is destroyed by the volcano has generated the most attention probably as it connects directly to the first film. As the  Brachiosaurus was the first living dinosaur Alan and Ellie saw in Jurassic Park. The Brachiosaurus is the first dinosaur Clare and Owen see when they arrive on the island and it is also the last dinosaur they see as the island is destroyed.

One issue many had with Jurassic World was Clare wearing high heels while she was running from the T-Rex. In Fallen Kingdom the first time you see Clare is from her feet as she is wearing flat shoes but in the next couple of scenes she’s wearing high heels before the camera again focuses on her feet when she arrives on Isla Nublar wearing flat boots. These shots were of course made to address concerns, but they didn’t need to highlight it three times. In interviews Bryce Dallas Howard has said that it was her choice to wear high heels.

Rampage and Fallen Kingdom might seem very different films but compare plots and characters are very similar Rampage doesn’t try to be anything it’s not but the problem with Fallen Kingdom it’s trying to live up to Jurassic Park but fails just as Jurassic World did.

Earlier this year would have expected Fallen Kingdom to take £60m+ and be one off the biggest films of the year likely to of course be joined by Solo: A Star Wars Story. But its performance is likely to be as with Solo for Disney just a minor blip for Universal Pictures as buzz is growing for Mamma Mia Here We Go Again. The sequel is likely to bring back all the memories and the box office success of the original released 10 years ago, but it’s unlikely to have the legs of the original which was in the top 10 for 17 weeks longer than The Greatest Showman was this year. The Greatest Showman was of course an original musical while Mamma Mia! was based on the hit West End musical and based on classic ABBA music.

When the first trailer was released in December fans were concerned with the amount of footage and that it looked far too similar to The Lost World: Jurassic Park Colin Trevorrow responded tweeting “Everything in the trailer is from the first 57 minutes”. But he was unhappier with the rest of the films marketing  saying “ It was very frustrating for me. That’s a relationship that we have with marketing, there are a lot of different needs. I try to be very lucid and rational about it, to speak frankly, there is a very, very small percentage of people who watch all the trailers. The rest of the world might only see one.

The final trailers revealed a large amount of the film would take place in a mansion and we get a shot of T-Rex roaring at a lion and the Mosasaurs coming out of a huge wave to attack water surfers (both shots are from the final scenes of the film). The Mosasaurs also featured in the Jurassic World trailers which were also the end scene.

Been many issues with trailers over recent years with Star Wars films featuring footage just for the trailer and the issue with spoilers in trailers. For a film like Fallen Kingdom which is the fifth part of a huge franchise it already has an inbuilt audience so less should be more with the marketing?

Jurassic Park took 9.75x opening (£4.9m); The Lost World: Jurassic Park 4.53x (£5,700,000); Jurassic Park 3 3.8x (£4,762,155): Jurassic World 3.32x (£19,350,727): Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom (£14,334,894) will be closer to 3x opening.

3. Hereditary – £834,527 – £3,658,446

Down 55.31% in its second weekend; 2014’s The Babadook took £294,330 dropped only 15% in its second weekend from 238 screens (less than half screens Hereditary was showing on) taking £964,769 of the m total.

In their second weekend’s recent horrors A Quiet Place dropped 22.8% in April taking £1.9m and £6.15m of £11.8m total and Insidious: The Last Key dropped 44.57% taking £1.02m and £2.64m in January and £5.21m total.

While Hereditary received critically acclaim it has received mixed reaction from audiences in the US received D+ CinemaScore similar to last year’s mother! also received critical acclaim as did 2016’s The Witch and 2017’s It Comes at Night. Most horrors today from studios audiences are far easier to predict but when horror becomes more psychological taping into modern day fears audience reaction is often different as seen with the audience reaction of Hereditary and Get Out.

4. Deadpool 2 – £454,656 – £31,525,696

Down 48.09% in its sixth weekend; only 9.5% less than Deadpool which took £966,484 in its sixth weekend.

Becoming 20th Century Fox’s 14th biggest film in the UK and probably their last as an independent studio with Disney or Comcast likely to own the studio next year.

Deadpool dropped 46% in its sixth weekend taking £519,634 and £36,755,497 (97.7% of £37,616,432 total) seventh behind Kung Fu Panda 3 £1,740,695, London Has Fallen £1,056,383, The Divergent Series: Allegiant £771,091 and new entries 10 Cloverfield Lane £1,601,161, The Boy £726,003 and High-Rise £542,788 ahead of it.

Deadpool 2 is the 97^th biggest film in the UK while Deadpool is the 66^th biggest film in the UK; are now almost 50 films in the UK that have taken between £30-40m.

The 13 Marvel X-Men films have taken almost £245m at the UK box office over the last 18 years. 20th Century Fox have three X-Men film set for release next year.

20^th Century Fox remaining films of the year are the YA adaptation The Darkest Mind in August, The Predator in September, Bad Times at the El Royale and Bohemian Rhapsody in October and Alita: Battle Angel in December with Oscar contenders Widows and The Old Man and The Gun opening in November/December. All the kind of films that you would expect from the studio in recent years mostly original and riskier films only trailers have so far been released of the films with Bad Times at the El Royale and Bohemian Rhapsody being the stand out titles.

5. Solo: A Star Wars Story – £375,488 – £18,709,126

Down 61.43% in its fifth weekend; In fifth weekend Phantom Menace £2,312,687 Attack of the Clones £1,084,001 Revenge of the Sith £600,723 Star Wars: The Force Awakens £3,137,258 Rogue One: A Star Wars Story £1,764,104 Star Wars: The Last Jedi £1,717,106

After 25 days on release Solo in the UK -49.2% Phantom Menace -40.79% Attack of the Clones -47.18%, Revenge of the Sith (ticket prices were 85% less for prequels) -82.45% The Force Awakens -68.12% Rogue One and -74.96% The Last Jedi.

Highlighting how disappointing UK performance of Solo: A Star Wars Story it has just overtaken the total box office of 1997’s Star Wars Special Edition £16,343,172 would be now inflation inflated £30,799,049.

Solo will likely take £20m at the UK box office

-60.58% of 1999’s The Phantom Menace

-46.29% of 2002’s Attack of the Clones

-48.96% of 2005’s Revenge of the Sith

-83.74% of 2015’s The Force Awakens

-69.7% of 2016’s Rogue One

75.81% of 2017’s The Last Jedi          

After Solo flopped many stories are now coming out including Lucasfilm wanted to delay Solo to December but Disney refused, Lucasfilm will stop making anthology films (are far better films but completely unnecessary) and they want more experienced directors. If all of this is true it means that there will be a 2-year gap between Star Wars films which will likely be filled with Avatar sequels.

Lucasfilm has since said that they are still developing the spin-off films with Boba Fett and Obi-Wan still in development; last month James Mangold was attached to write and direct Boba Fett while Stephen Daldry as attached to direct Obi-Wan last August but left the project in May. Are also rumours Obi-Wan could premiere on Disney’s streaming service that will launch next year.

Last year  Disney announced plans to launch a rival streaming service to Netflix in 2019 but Disney’s lack of library content was one of the reasons they wanted to acquire 20th Century Fox. Disney already announced they would premiere Noelle starring Anna Kendrick on their streaming service instead of in theatres and they will need much more exclusive original content.

In May 2018 Netflix had 125m subscribers worldwide adding 7.4m in the first quarter of 2018 1.96m in the US and 5.46m internationally by the time Disney launch their streaming service in the US Netflix will have over 150m subscribers worldwide. With Facebook and Apple also launching streaming services alongside Netflix, Amazon and many other do consumers really want to subscribe to yet another streaming service?  

While a group on Twitter want to remake The Last Jedi claiming they have $200m and asking Bob Iger if they can remake it. They want to make a version of The Last Jedi that is universally accepted as possible. Rian Johnson director of The Last Jedi retweeted the tweet trolling them asking to make it happen.

As I have said many times I have much criticism about Disney’s Star Wars saga films but Rogue One and Solo are enjoyable films and do believe had Disney given Ron Howard and Lucasfilm more time and  had more space between The Last Jedi it would have performed far much better While Disney couldn’t delay Solo to December due to Mary Poppins Returns they could have opened in late October and moved  The Nutcracker and the Four Realms to open after Ralph Breaks the Internet: Wreck-It Ralph 2.

But was the reason why Disney kept Solo in its May date down to Walt Disney fiscal year running from October 1^st to September 30^th.  Would have seen Solo move from 2018 fiscal year to 2019 and after Black Panther and Avengers: Infinity War too over $3bn between them it would be easier to hide Solo losses in 2018 rather than 2019. This was a similar reason to why Warner Bros kept Justice League to its November 2017 release date despite a problematic production as their executives were on big bonuses ahead of the merger with AT&T.

After Solo opened was interested to see where it’s opening was in the biggest in the UK;  with previews Solo had #168 biggest opening in the UK between Kung Fu Panda and Angels and Demons; without previews #188 biggest between 22 Jump Street (was directed by fired directors Lord and Miller fired from Solo) and Alien Covenant; 267th inflation inflated between Scooby Do Two and Prince Caspian; while Solo is currently #236 biggest film in UK between Saving Private Ryan and War Horse.

As with Pirates of The Caribbean: Salazar’s Revenge and Cars 3 the performance of Solo will be a minor blimp for Disney with their next release British dog comedy Patrick this weekend before Incredibles 2 on July 13^th; the first film opened November 2004 with £9,753,035 taking £3,493,896 from previews but the sequel currently doesn’t have any weekend previews but neither did Cars 3, Finding Dory or Inside Out.

Be interesting to see if Hotel Transylvania 3: A Monster Vacation has previews as they will be over Incredibles 2 second weekend and previous films that held previews over the second weekend of animated films often get squeezed. Incredibles went on to take £31,900,893 which would be £54,494,399 in 2018 but more likely be closer to Finding Dory’s £43,008,497.

Ant-Man and the Wasp and Christopher Robin following in August both opening several weeks after US opening and then The Nutcracker and the Four Realms, Wreck-It-Ralph 2 and Mary Poppins Returns end the year which is a hard one to predict as its almost 50 years ago since the original back then live action mixed with animation was unique experience now it’s a common occurrence.

Mary Poppins is a beloved film for several generations as Han Solo is Harrison Ford Mary Poppins is Julie Andrews can Emily Blunt possibly compare where Alden Ehrenreich failed? While what modern films could you compare Mary Poppins Returns with as she’s Bridget Jones meets Beauty and the Beast and Wonder Woman?

UK box office in detail

This weekend’s top 10 box office took £10,066,964 down 24.51% from last weekend £13,335,852;

The weekend admissions 1,297,670 down 24.51% from last weekend 1,719,344; 2018 average ticket price is probably up about 3% from last year’s £7.49 to £7.67 for 2018;   

8 films opened at weekend taking £4,410,425; Ocean’s Eight took 98.56% (£4,347,070); remaining 7 films shared 1.43% (££63,355): Ocean’s Eight took 43.18% and Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom took 32.27% (£3,249,227); top two films took 75.45% of the top 10 BO

The weekend was up 5.43% from last year (£9,547,804) Transformers: The Last Knight £4,635,570, Hampstead £453,522, The Book of Henry £72,128, The Graduate: 50th Anniversary 4K Restoration £28,946

Down 43.56% from 2016: (£17,839,552) The Secret Life of Pets £9,580,039; Independence Day: Resurgence £5,067,855; Elvis & Nixon £56,790; The Meddler £19,327

Down 37.26% from 2015; (£16,046,393) Take That Live 2015 £965,000; Mr. Holmes £741,080; Entourage £632,754; The Longest Ride £419,047;

Up 21.51% from 2014: (£8,284,805) The Fault in Our Stars £3,434,334; Jersey Boys £415,608: 3 Days to Kill £324,560; The Art of the Steal £7,867

Down 14.76% from 2013: (£11,810,188) World War Z £4,535,899; Snitch £268,229; Before Midnight £244,231

Up 28.75% from 10 years ago (£7,818,976); Adulthood £1,203,319; Teeth £235,658; The Edge of Love £180,837; The Ruins £123,507; The Escapist £79,579

Up 89.05% from 15 years ago (£5,325,585); 2 Fast 2 Furious £2,747,875; Basic £248,088

Next weekend in 2017: (£19,630,337) Despicable Me 3 £11,154,904; Baby Driver £3,605,705; All Eyez on Me £912,662; The House £487,542; Alone in Berlin £108,047;

 

UK Box Office Top 10

US Box office

• Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom – Universal Pictures

Opened with $148.02m; received 50% Rotten Tomatoes score (Jurassic Park 92%, The Lost World: Jurassic Park 53%. Jurassic Park 3 50% and Jurassic World 71%) A- CinemaScore; The Lost World: Jurassic Park received B+; Jurassic Park III B- while Jurassic Park and Jurassic World both received A+; Sunday estimates had it opening with $150m but actually came in slightly lower.

After taking $15.3m from Thursday previews compared with $18.5m for Jurassic World in 2015.

Jurassic World had the biggest ever US opening in 2015 $208.8m (6 months later was overtaken by Star Wars: The Force Awakens $247.96m)

Jurassic Park in 1993 had the biggest opening of the year $47.02m (almost double The Firm in second $25.4m) taking $357.06m

The Lost World: Jurassic Park in 1997 had the biggest opening of the year $72.13m (almost 25% more than Men in Black in second $51.06m) taking $229.08m (third biggest film of 1997 behind Titanic $600.78m and Men in Black $250.69m

Jurassic Park 3 in 2001 had the eighth biggest opening of the year $50.77m (behind Harry Potter and the Sorcerer’s Stone, Planet of the Apes, The Mummy Returns, Rush Hour 2, Monsters, Inc, Pearl Harbor and Hannibal) taking $181.71m (ninth biggest film of 2001 behind Harry Potter and the Sorcerer’s Stone, The Lord of the Rings: The Fellowship of the Ring, Shrek, The Mummy Returns, Rush Hour 2, Monsters, Inc, Pearl Harbor and Ocean’s Eleven)

Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom had the fourth biggest opening of 2018 behind Avengers: Infinity War, Black Panther and Incredibles 2 but 30% less than Jurassic World $208.8m three years ago.

Ahead of the release, the film was tracking to open with $140m+ so opened close to its tracking but its opening was predictably harmed by opening two weeks after international release and a week after Incredibles 2 opened. But had Fallen Kingdom opened same day as international release would have likely opened far stronger in the US.

Fallen Kingdom had a budget of over $187m and $185m promotional partner campaign more than double Jurassic World. 

After Incredibles 2 dropped 56% in its second weekend Fallen Kingdom is likely to drop similarly taking about $60m in its second weekend; Jurassic World dropped 49% in its second weekend taking $106.58m.

Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom took $111.9m from 67 territories including $204.38m from China (Jurassic World opened with $99.15m taking $228.74m) and $576m total and $715m worldwide. Jurassic World went on to take $1.67bn globally but it’s unlikely Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom will take $1.2bn; it will take about $800m internationally and $350m+ in the US.

• Incredibles 2 – Disney

Down 56% in its second weekend taking $80.34m and $349.79m; #47 biggest film in the US ahead of Zootopia but just behind Inside Out.

Dropping over $100m in its second weekend despite critical acclaim and strong buzz it joins the $100 Million losers club. Over the last decade as film openings get bigger so do their drops Incredibles 2 is the tenth film since 2011 to have a $100m+ second weekend drop.

Twilight: New Moon was the first film to be a member of the club opening with $142.84m and taking  $42.87m in its second weekend and Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part II opening with $169m dropping to $42m in its second weekend. The other members include 2012’s The Avenger, 2015’s Jurassic World in 2015 both have record openings but then dropped 50% in their second weekends. 2015’s Avengers: Age of Ultron opened with $191.3m with the second weekend of $77.2m.

This tentpole films opening big and dropping big are a regular occurrence in China as 16-34 audiences are very fickle going from opener to the next week’s opener far quicker than audiences used to a decade or two ago when a film dropped only a third.

After opening bigger than Beauty and the Beast last weekend Incredibles 2 some thought its second weekend could have topped $100m against Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom especially after critically acclaim and strong audience reaction.

It still had the seventh biggest second weekend after Star Wars: The Force Awakens, Avengers: Infinity War, Black Panther, Jurassic World, Marvel’s The Avengers and Beauty and the Beast.

The Incredibles dropped only 28.7% in its second weekend taking $50.25m and $143.25m 54.8% of its $261.44m total; inflation inflated the second weekend $74.12m and $211.29m 37.06% of the $570.06m total.

In 2003 Finding Nemo dropped 33.7% in its second weekend taking $46.58m $144.03m of $339.71m total ($516.05m inflation inflated total);  In 2016 Finding Dory dropped 46% taking $72.95m in its second weekend; year earlier Inside Out opened with $90.44m the week after Jurassic World which held #1 with $106.58m. Finding Dory was the second biggest film of the year.

Did half expect Incredibles to take over $100m in its second weekend which would have squeezed Fallen Kingdom more but instead Fallen Kingdom squeeze Incredibles 2. While Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom will likely drop 60% in its second weekend with a lack of major releases Incredibles 2 will hold far stronger in its third weekend.

Internationally opened with $56.8m ($21m from China) and $134.9m from its staggered international release and $485m worldwide.

• Ocean’s Eight – Warner Bros

Down 39.2% in its third weekend taking $11.54m and $100.28m’ #700 biggest film in the US ahead of Edge of Tomorrow and slightly behind Bad Teacher and Fifty Shades Freed.

2001’s Ocean’s Eleven dropped 42.1% taking $22.07m and $72.30m of $183.41m

2004’s Ocean’s Twelve dropped 53.7% taking $18.12m and $68.52m of $112.54m

Ocean’s Thirteen dropped 45.4% taking $19.72m and $70.42m of $117.15m

Ocean’s Eight took $27.6m internationally and $71.3m total and $171.6m worldwide; Ocean’s Eleven took $450.71m, Ocean’s Twelve $362.74m and Ocean’s Thirteen $311.31m globally.

• Tag – Warner Bros

Down 44.8% in its second weekend taking $8.25m and $30.41m

Holding slightly better than last years Fist Fight which took $6,571,348 in its second weekend down 46.1% and $23,446,175; but less than Game Night which took $10,412,496 down 38.8% and $33,240,262.

Took $1.2m internationally and $3.2m total.  

• Solo: A Star Wars Story – Disney

Down 54.9% in its fifth weekend taking $4.5m and $204.12m; #187 biggest film in the US

After 31 days Solo has taken-195.56% The Last Jedi, -146.36% Rogue One, -319.44% The Force Awakens, -53.26% Revenge of the Sith, -31.66% Attack of the Clones and – 53.26% Phantom Menace.

Solo continues similar to last year’s Justice League which took $4.3m in its fifth weekend taking $219.59m and $229.2m total;

Afte a film underperforms are Solo has done much is written about the film with much speculation about why it performed as it did how much of it is fact, of course, is unknown. Disney is receiving much more attention over the performance of Solo because it’s the first Star Wars film made by Disney to underperform and with them making fewer films than their rivals underperforming films re far more noticeable.

Solo took $2.8m internationally with a total of $151.6m and globally total of $355m; currently #336 biggest film globally.

• Deadpool 2 – 20^th Century Fox

Drops 39.3% in its sixth weekend taking $5.27m and $304.17m (#74 biggest film in the US ahead of Man of Steel and slightly behind Iron Man 2  and Thor: Ragnarok (Deadpool #42)

Deadpool 2 is now holding less than the first film which took $8.01m in its sixth weekend taking 10% less than Deadpool’s $340.95m;

Deadpool went on to take $363.07m Deadpool 2 should take about $320m+ which is far more than many people thought when 20^th Century Fox brought forward its release by 2 weeks to open the week before Solo.

Deadpool 2 is 20th Century Fox’s ninth biggest film in the US and will overtake Home Alone, Star Wars: Episode II – Attack of the Clones, Independence Day and Star Wars shortly.

The 11 Marvel X-Men film has taken over $2.32bn at the box office over the last 18 years in the US and almost $5.65bn globally.

Deadpool 2 took $5.4m internationally and $400.9m total and $705m globally; #104 biggest film overtaking It and shortly Captain America: The Winter Soldier. Deadpool 2 has become the third biggest R-rated film world behind The Matrix Reloaded with $742.1 million and  Deadpool with $783.1 million.

UK Box Office Predictions

Four films open wide this weekend but with temperatures in the 80s over the weekend Patrick is probably the one film that will have the best chance of success being the only family film on release with Sherlock Gnomes now played out.

After Ocean’s Eight 7 day opening it is expected to drop over 70% in its second weekend taking £1.3m+; which could see Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom battling it out with Patrick for #1 dropping 50%+ in its fourth weekend taking £1.4m and Patrick opening close to last years A Dog’s Purpose with £1.3m; four years ago, Mrs Brown’s Boys d’Movie opened the same weekend surprising everyone with £4,301,306 going on to take £14,290,727 while also two years and a week later Absolutely Fabulous: The Movie opened with £4,042,959 but both were based on hit British TV shows.

Sicario 2: Sicario: Day of the Soldado is likely to be the biggest other opener openings with a sun affected £1.3m with Adrift and Tag opening with about £400k.

As no World Cup games played on Friday audiences may come back to the cinema while England won’t play their second-round match until Monday or Tuesday but with temperatures in the 80s, it will be more pub and barbeque weather than cinema. Which  will likely see films drop similar to last weekend

Opening in the

• Sicario 2: Day of the Soldado – Lionsgate

Sequel to the 2015 action thriller Sicario starring Benicio del Toro, Josh Brolin, Isabela Moner, Jeffrey Donovan, Manuel Garcia-Rulfo and Catherine Keener and directed by directed by Stefano Sollima.

In the UK it’s called Sicario: Day of the Soldado while in the US its Sicario 2: Soldado.

Reviews have been much more mixed than the first film as without director Denis Villeneuve, cinematography Roger Deakins,  Jóhann Jóhannsson music score and Emily Blunt reviews have said feels much more like a Hollywood action film than the original film was. Maybe that’s why it’s opening in the middle of summer rather than early autumn similar to The Equalizer 2 the first was a gritty nasty action film the trailers for sequel look more like a Taken film.

Soon after the release of the first film Lionsgate announced the Sicario sequel Benicio del Toro, Josh Brolin would return from the first film along with Emily Blunt but soon afterwards screenwriter Taylor Sheridan wrote Emily Blunt’s character out of the sequel as he didn’t want the sequel to become Taken (recently it’s been rumoured that she could return for the third part).

Sicario opened October 9^th, 2015 with £1,596,734 dropping 45% in its second weekend taking £877,236 and £3,341,737 going on to take £5,070,173       

With the World Cup moving into second round matches are bigger gaps between games but those games do get higher viewing figures but do give a three-week period (this week being the second weekend) for other films to find audiences that they might not have otherwise been able to do.

• Adrift – STX International  

Romance drama starring Shailene Woodley and Sam Claflin and directed by Baltasar Kormákur based on true story of a couple who get stranded in the middle of the Pacific Ocean and must navigate to Hawaii with no communication or navigation tools.

While starring in last year’s excellent HBO drama series Big Little Lies returning in series 2 next year she has yet to open a film herself best known for starring in Divergent films and The Descendants

Similar films include

127 Hours opened January 2011 – £2,168,570 taking £6,605,229

The Mountain Between Us  opened October 2017 – £777,646 taking £2,360,660

The Finest Hours opened February 2016 – £247,643

Open Water opened September 2004 – £1,970,176 taking £4,818,915

All Is Lost opened December 2013 – £231,595 from 89 screens

2015’s The Shallows opened August 2016 – £800,963 taking £1,723,386

Adrift opened June 1^st in the US with $11.6m over a quiet weekend for new releases the weekend after Solo: A Star Wars Story opened.

• Patrick – Disney

British family comedy (Bridget Jones meets Marley & Me or as its marketing says Pug Actually) starring Beattie Edmondson, Ed Skrein, Tom Bennett, Emily Atack, Jennifer Saunders and Adrian Scarborough and directed by Mandie Fletcher (previously directed 2016’s Absolutely Fabulous: The Movie opened £4,042,959 taking £15,879,609) and written by Vanessa Davies (former head of UK Theatrical Publicity at Disney UK in the 90s).

All the major studios acquire films for local territories to add to their slates, but Disney acquire films solely for the UK very rarely and are very random the last film they acquired was 2014’s The November Man, other films include 2013’s The Words, 2013’s Won’t Back Down, 2011’s Soul Surfer, 2008’s Flashbacks of a Fool, 2007’s And When Did You Last See Your Father, Hallam Foe and I Want Candy. Disney UK acquiring Patrick made much more sense written by Vanessa Davies who had worked for the studio for many years previously.

Show Dogs opened last month with £546,405 and has taken £2,820,827 despite poor reviews.

Marley & Me opened March 2009 with £4,414,169 taking £15.12m

But more likely to perform similarly to recent British animal family film A Street Cat Named Bob opened in November 2016 with £985,557 taking £4,182,976 and A Dog’s Purpose opened with £1.3m in May 2017 taking £2.99m.

With children’s films, how Dogs and Sherlock Gnomes almost played out and Incredibles not opening for two weeks, Patrick could fill a gap in the market.

• Leave No Trace – Sony Pictures

Drama starring Ben Foster, Thomasin McKenzie, Jeff Kober, Dale Dickey and directed by Debra Granik (her first film since 2010’s Winter’s Bone) based on the book My Abandonment by Peter Rock; premiered at the Sundance Film Festival receiving critical acclaim currently 100% Rotten Tomatoes. 

Winter Bone opened September 2010 with £126,865 from 72 screens taking £358,949

Has been compared to Captain Fantastic opened September 8^th, 2016vl with £280,614 from 105 screens.

• Tag – Warner Bros

Comedy starring Ed Helms, Jake Johnson, Hannibal Buress, Jon Hamm, Jeremy Renner, Annabelle Wallis, Isla Fisher, Rashida Jones, and Leslie Bibb and directed by Jeff Tomsic based on a true story published in The Wall Street Journal in January 2013 about a group of grown men who played the game of tag over 28 years; received average reviews 56% Rotten Tomatoes score.

Comedies have been one of the genres that have been squeezed at the box office over the last decade last year Warner Bros released Fist Fight and Going in Style opening in March,  April and June with £0.4m, £0.56m and £0.48m. Other comedies included Snatched opening with £0.84m and Game Night opened with £1.09m earlier this year taking £4.63m.

While UK box office often takes about 10% for blockbusters and comic-book films its closer to 4-6% for comedies The Big Sick, Home Again, Snatched, The House, Book Club, Game Night and Going in Style.

Comedies as rom-coms used to be mainstays at the cinema for decades but in recent years they have been squeezed at the box office Amazon last year acquired The Big Sick which was given a theatrical release by Studiocanal. While Netflix has released several rom-coms in recent months including The Kissing Booth and The Set Up.

Opening in the

• Sicario 2: Soldado – Sony Pictures

The sequel was originally to be released in the US by Lionsgate who released the original film but after a disagreement with the production company Black Label Media the US, rights were taken back and then sold on to Sony Pictures as also did for last year’s Only the Brave.

Sicario received critical acclaim 93% Rotten Tomatoes score opened September 2015 on a platform release expanding over three weeks ($401,288 from 6 screens; $1,717,301 from 59 screens and then $12,148,041 from 2,620 screens.

The sequel has received positive reviews but opens wide which its release, but summer used to have a mix of adult films alongside the big blockbusters for younger audiences but now these films have been moved towards away from the summer months.

Its Josh Brolin’s third film this summer after appearing in Deadpool 2 and Avengers: Infinity War which also starred Benicio del Toro.

• Uncle Drew – Lionsgate

Sports comedy starring Kyrie Irving, Shaquille O’Neal, Chris Webber, Reggie Miller, and Nate Robinson, Lisa Leslie. Lil Rel Howery, Tiffany Haddish, Erica Ash, J. B. Smoove, Mike Epps, and Nick Kroll and directed by Charles Stone III; received mixed reviews; expected to open with about $15m.

• Leave No Trace – Bleecker Street

Debra Granik last film 2010’s Winter’s Bone gave Jennifer Lawrence her breakthrough role.

Winter’s Bone was also released in June opening on a platform release taking $84,797 from 4 screens slowly expanding over 8 weeks to a maximum of only 141 screens. Despite only have a limited release Jennifer Lawrence received her first Best Actress Oscar nomination.

Thomasin McKenzie has been compared to Jennifer Lawrence giving  a breakthrough performance in the film. Saying “I think it’s cool people have been comparing me to Jennifer Lawrence, but also I’ve got my own acting style,” McKenzie says. “But I’d love to be like her. I love her. She’s cool.”

Thomasin McKenzie is currently filming Jojo Rabbit directed by Taika Waititi due for release next year.