UK/US Box Office June 29th – July 1st Week 26 and UK BO Predictions

Top 5 Breakdown

1. Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom – £2,001,876 – £34,498,111

Returning back to #1 after being replaced with Ocean’s Eight with its 7-day opening weekend dropping 38.76% in its fourth weekend; 36% less than Jurassic World after 26 days one day more than Jurassic World and with 6.5% ticket inflation since.

Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom is the fourth biggest film of the year after Avengers Infinity Wars, Black Panther and Peter Rabbit; in 2015 Jurassic World was the biggest film of the year until Spectre and Star Wars: The Force Awakens opened later in the year

Fallen Kingdom is the 111^th film to take over £30m at the box office over the last 25 years and the 86^th biggest film in the UK in-between Up and Fifty Shades of Grey and 13^th biggest Universal Pictures film in the UK.

Jurassic World dropped 55% in its fourth weekend taking £2,610,612 and £53,763,933 83.58% of £64,322,933 total; third behind Terminator: Genisys opening with £3,793,617 and Minions second-weekend #1 with £6,238,498 taking £20,973,912 44.02% of £47,645,626;  (the first weekend of July 2015 had similar hot temperatures interspersed with thunderstorms) 

Fallen Kingdom will now likely take about £43m 30%+ less than Jurassic World £64.32m in 2015 and 6% less of Jurassic Park and 61%+ than its inflation inflated £47.79m took in 1993. While Fallen Kingdom has overtaken The Lost World: Jurassic Park £25.79m total this week it will also come short of its inflation inflated total £48.62m. The only inflation inflated  Jurassic Park film it will overtake is the third film is seen as the worst film of the series it took £18.1m in 2001 which would be £33.54m.

With England beating Columbia on Tuesday box office will be down again this coming weekend with England playing Saturday afternoon which will see many opt for barbeques or pubs watching the game enjoying the hot weather again rather than going to the cinema.  

Jurassic Park took 9.75x opening (£4.9m); The Lost World: Jurassic Park 4.53x (£5,700,000); Jurassic Park 3 3.8x (£4,762,155): Jurassic World 3.32x (£19,350,727): Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom (£14,334,894) will be closer to 3x opening.

2. Ocean’s Eight – £1,283,488 – £6,861,607

Dropping 70.47% in its second weekend after its 7-day opening but 45.31% from its Fri-Sun opening; having a similar second weekend box office to 2016’s Ghostbusters reboot which took £1,320,048 and £7,194,619 and £10,554,557 total; second weekend was close to Central Intelligence, Eddie the Eagle, Maid In Manhattan, Confessions of a Shopaholic and Forgetting Sarah Marshall.

The 70% second-weekend drop might suggest that Ocean’s Eight won last long in cinemas but compared with other films that also had extended openings it had the 33^rd biggest drop close to Deadpool 2 and Now You See Me 2. That said its unlikely Ocean’s Eight will get close to the total box office of previous films even though its 16 years after the first film was released.

Second weekends

2002’s Ocean’s Eleven dropped 29.19% taking £3,608,021 and £11,413,218 of £24,877,642

2005’s Ocean’s Twelve dropped 37.18% taking £2,132,196 and £6,897,580 of £12,030,148

2007’s Ocean’s Thirteen dropped 27.71% taking £2,184,104 and £7,042,069 of £12,998,107

3. Sicario 2: Day of the Soldado – £698,466 – NE

In the US Sicario 2 opened with a third more than the original film opened on expansion but in the UK opened with less than half.

Mixed reviews compared with the original film (62% Rotten Tomatoes compared with 93%) and the lack of Emily Blunt was partly to blame as was the 80-degree temperatures and the World Cup. What also didn’t help was opening against two other films which saw the three films cannibalize each other allowing Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom and Ocean’s Eight to hold better than they might have done.

While England games get 20m TV other games over the weekend Russia Vs Spain and Croatia Vs Denmark had 11m viewers while Monday’s Belgium v Japan game was seen by 8.2m; Love Island TV audience continues to grow up to 4m on Monday night becoming the most watch TV show ever on the channel and is probably having more effect on the box office than the World Cup.   

Was surprising Lionsgate dated Sicario 2: Day of the Soldado for June rather than hold it back for the autumn but as with upcoming The Equalizer 2 its seen more as an action thriller than a grown-up thriller as the first film were.  But chances are they were forced into its release date by the production company. 

The screenwriter Taylor Sheridan said he cut Emily Blunt’s character from the film as it would have turned it into Taken but the lack of it made it much more of generic action thriller missing what made the first film so good.

Was an interesting article on Slate website with Taylor Sheridan being compared with True Detective writer Nic Pizzolatto comparing the first series with the second as is the case with the two Sicario films. The difference with True Detective has he turned a powerful disturbing thriller series one into a very dull boring thriller in series two.

Sicario opened October 9th, 2015 with £1,596,734 dropping 45% in its second weekend taking £877,236 and £3,341,737 going on to take £5,070,173       

4. Tag – £475,373 – NE

Of the four new wide releases at the weekend Tag was the one I was most surprised to see in the top 5 while taking close to what Fist Fight opened with last year.

Comedies have been one of the genres that have been squeezed at the box office over the last decade last year Warner Bros released Fist Fight and Going in Style opening in March,  April and June with £0.4m, £0.56m and £0.48m. Other comedies included Snatched opening with £0.84m and Game Night opened with £1.09m earlier this year taking £4.63m.

While UK box office often takes about 10% for blockbusters and comic-book films its closer to 4-6% for comedies The Big Sick, Home Again, Snatched, The House, Book Club, Game Night and Going in Style. Game Night was one of the surprises of this year

Comedies as rom-coms used to be mainstays at the cinema for decades but in recent years they have been squeezed at the box office Amazon last year acquired The Big Sick which was given a theatrical release by Studiocanal. While Netflix has released several rom-coms in recent months including The Kissing Booth and The Set Up.

5. Sanju – £448,659 – NE

With four wide releases cannibalizing themselves allowed Bollywood film Sanju repeat the recent success of Race 2 again on only 116 screens most of the other films in the top 10 were showing in more than three times the number of screens.

This again shows that most films are now receiving far too wide and films would perform far stronger opening on lesser screens which would give room for other films that don’t normally get screens.

UK box office in detail

This weekend’s top 10 box office took £6,480,094 down 35.6% from last weekend £10,066,964;

The weekend admissions 844,862 down 34.89% from last weekend 1,297,670; 2018 average ticket price is probably up about 3% from last year’s £7.49 to £7.67 for 2018;   

15 films opened at weekend taking £2,541,200; Sicario 2: Soldado 27.48% (£698,466); Tag 18.7% (£475,373); Adrift 15.94% (£405,240); remaining 12 films shared 37.86% (£962,121): Ocean’s Eight took 19.8% (£1,283,488) and Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom took 30.89% (£2,001,876)

The weekend was down 67% from last year (£19,630,337) Despicable Me 3 £11,154,904; Baby Driver £3,605,705; All Eyez on Me £912,662; The House £487,542; Alone in Berlin £108,047;

Down 57.83% from 2016: (£15,368,987) Absolutely Fabulous: The Movie £4,042,959; Central Intelligence £3,050,261;

Down 67.11% from 2015; (£19,704,414) Minions £11,558,946; Knock Knock £250,825; Slow West £140,858; The Terminator (Re: 2015) £66,492; She’s Funny That Way £22,311

Down 38.1% from 2014: (£10,468,569) Mrs. Brown’s Boys d’Movie £4,301,306; Chef £605,976; Walking on Sunshine £403,490; Cold in July £156,783; Seve £47,294;

Down 70.5% from 2013: (£21,973,402) Despicable Me 2 £14,822,427; This is the End £1,390,323; Hummingbird £206,731; The East £65,523; Stand Up Guys £44,845

Up 25.54% from 2012 (£5,161,480); Ice Age: Continental Drift (Scotland) £853,226; Friends with Kids £357,520; Killer Joe £208,553; Storage 24 £131,342o

Down 57.98% from 2011 (£15,422,378): Transformers: Dark of the Moon £10,728,503; Larry Crowne £346,486

Down 41.56% from 2010: (£11,090,024):Shrek Forever After £8,955,554

Down 33.7% from 2009 (£9,778,033); Year One £978,008; My Sister’s Keeper £922,947

Down 42% from 2008 (£11,174,084); Chronicles of Narnia: Prince Caspian £4,060,532; Wanted £3,814,055;

Down 69.34% from 2007 (£21,135,733) Shrek the Third £16,671,727; Hostel 2 £681,426;

Up 1.84% from 2006; (£6,362,835) Over the Hedge £3,589,038; Just My Luck £579,306

Down 45.58% from 2005 (£11,909,005); War of the Worlds £8,644,787

Down 67.42% from 2004 (£19,891,077): Shrek 2 £16,220,752; Godsend £491,506

Down 37.26% from 2003 (£10,329,409); Bruce Almighty £7,260,467; Wrong Turn £370,562; Nicholas Nickleby £222,376

Up 18.24% from 2002 (£5,480,099): The Musketeer £131,338; Kissing Jessica Stein £102,234; Hardball £79,864

Next weekend in 2017: (£17,613,700): Spider-Man: Homecoming £9,369,846; It Comes at Night £226,688;

Also opened

• Adrift – £405,240 from 447 screens

Opened as an alternative to the World Cup but with temperatures in the 80s and opening against a crowded week of new releases had an underwhelming opening; less than similar survival films

Open Water opened September 2004 – £1,970,176 taking £4,818,915

The Mountain Between Us  opened October 2017 – £777,646 taking £2,360,660

2015’s The Shallows opened August 2016 – £800,963 taking £1,723,386

But bigger than

All Is Lost opened December 2013 – £231,595 from 89 screens

The Finest Hours opened February 2016 – £247,643

Adrift is the seventh film released by STX International since their launch last September that have had mixed success at the box office; Wind River opened with £0.43m taking £1.20m; Home Again £0.48m taking £1.13m; Breathe £0.53m taking £1.71m; Den of Thieves £1.08m taking £2.79m; Gringo £0.21m taking £0.38m; I Feel Pretty £1.27m taking £5.38m

Their remaining films are Mile 22, American Animals, Peppermint, Second Act and The Happytime Murders. The Happytime Murders their most high-profile release after the adult puppet film generated strong media coverage in May after they released the first trailer with the tagline “No sesame all street” saw the creators of Sesame Street sue STX.  Adult puppet films as adult animated films have had mixed success at the box office over the years while its 30 years ago since the classic live-action/aminated Who Framed Roger Rabbit was released there have also been the terrible Cool World and Monkeybone.

• Patrick – £299,861 from 511 screens

Despite receiving mixed reviews and the hot weather being the only children’s film on release should have seen it open bigger than recent Show Dogs which opened last month with £546,405 and has taken £2,820,827 despite poor reviews.

After Mrs. Brown’s Boys d’Movie opened with £4,301,306 and Absolutely Fabulous: The Movie £4,042,959 in the final week of June in 2014 and 2016 Patrick should have opened similar to recent British animal family film A Street Cat Named Bob opened in November 2016 with £985,557 taking £4,182,976 or A Dog’s Purpose opened with £1.3m in May 2017 taking £2.99m.

How did Disney get Patrick into over 500 screens?

But it does again show while Disney might be able to open franchises they fail badly with the smaller films which they had huge success with before they moved into the properties business. While Patrick might have received poor reviews Show Dogs and Peter Rabbit also did while the hot weather had an impact on its box office I’m sure Patrick would have still performed better if released by another distributor.

All the US studios acquire films for local territories to add to their slates, but Disney acquires films solely for the UK very rarely and are very random in the last film they acquired was 2014’s The November Man, other films include 2013’s The Words, 2013’s Won’t Back Down, 2011’s Soul Surfer, 2008’s Flashbacks of a Fool, 2007’s And When Did You Last See Your Father, Hallam Foe and I Want Candy (opened with £349,301 taking £730,452). Disney UK likely acquired rights for Patrick as the screenplay was written by Vanessa Davies who had worked for the studio for many years previously as head of UK publicity.

In recent years Disney non-properties have underperformed at the box office The Queen of Katwe, Their Finest Hours, McFarland, Alexander and The Terrible, Horrible, No Good, Very Bad Day, Million Dollar Arm, Saving Mr Banks, The Odd Life of Timothy Green and People Like Us. Have to go back to Steven Spielberg’s War Horse for Disney’s last non-property success but that was Oscar-nominated and based on a hugely successful show and was before Disney had released their first Marvel film.

With Disney likely to buy 20^th Century Fox will Disney’s marketing team be able to handle films that aren’t properties anymore? 20^th Century Fox and Fox Searchlight marketing teams have had strong success with a wide range of films over recent years having strong success with The Greatest Showman, Murder on the Orient Express, Logan, Hidden Figures, Three Billboards Outside and The Shape of Water. Would any of those films be been a similar success released by Disney as its similar to how UIP used to be they were great with their big blockbusters but the smaller films they often hand trouble marketing?

• Leave No Trace – £50,445 from 97 screens

Debra Granik’s first film since Oscar-nominated Winter’s Bone which gave Jennifer Lawrence her breakthrough role. Thomasin McKenzie performance has been compared to Jennifer Lawrence with the film receiving critical acclaim with a 100% Rotten Tomatoes score.

Winter Bone opened September 2010 with £126,865 from 72 screens taking £358,949

Has been compared to Captain Fantastic opened September 8th, 2016vl with £280,614 from 105 screens.

 Other News

UK admissions up 21% in May with the year tracking at the highest level since 2002;

Avengers: Infinity War and Deadpool 2 helped May admissions increase to 13.72m  admissions up from 11.34m in May 2017 and the best May result since 2013 15.61m with Star Trek Into Darkness and Fast & Furious 6.

Avengers: Infinity War took £35.3 million of its total box office in May £10m more than Guardians of The Galaxy, Vol. 2 in 2017. Deadpool 2 took £24.2 million third was Solo: A Star Wars Story with £10.8 million

The first five months of 2018 admissions were 75.06m the highest for the January-May period in the UK since 2002 75.50m and 0.6% ahead of 2017 74.61m.

Last year UK Cinema Association made a similar announcement in July but then box office dropped off later in the year as June 2018 is unlikely to get anywhere near 2002’s 12,211,024 while Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom has performed well the rest of June releases have been poor.  

From June-December 2017 there were 11 films that took over £20m; Star Wars: The Last Jedi £82.65m; Dunkirk £56.75m; Despicable Me 3 £47.70m; Paddington 2 £42.64m; It £32.34m; Thor: Ragnarok £30.93m; Spider-Man Homecoming £30.48m; Kingsman: The Golden Circle £24.88m; Murder on the Orient Express £24.18m; Wonder Woman £22.18m; War for the Planet of the Apes £20.76m.

Incredibles 2, Mamma Mia: Here We Go Again, Hotel Transylvania 3, Johnny English 3, The Grinch, Fantastic Beasts and Where To Find Them 2, Wreck-It-Ralph 2 and Mary Poppins Returns all likely to do similarly this year but its hard to see what other films could also take £20m+ as there aren’t any The Greatest Showman or Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle possible surprises. A lot will have to do with how Mamma Mia and Mary Poppins sequels perform.

The US ComScore reported summer box office up to July 1^st was $2.29bn up 15% from same period last year ended up having the lowest summer$3.97bn for 11 years. This summer looks to be much more from-loaded than last year with only Ant-Man and the Wasp and Mission Impossible: Fallout the two remaining films of the summer likely to take about $200m.

Last summer Spider-Man: Homecoming, Despicable Me 3, Dunkirk, War for the Planet of the Apes, Girls Trip, Annabelle: Creation, The Emoji Movie and The Hitman’s Bodyguard all performed strongly in July/August.  In July/August Hotel Transylvania 3: Summer Vacation ($150m), Skyscraper ($120m), Mamma Mia: Here We Go Again! ($120m)  Along with Ant-Man and the Wasp ($180m) and Mission Impossible: Fallout ($180m) will be the remaining tentpole hits of the summer with The Spy Who Dumped Me, The Meg and Crazy Rich Asians likely to perform well topping out $60m+.

UK Box Office Top 10

 

US Box office

• Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom – Universal Pictures

Down 58.8% in its second weekend taking $60.91m and $265.69m; Fallen Kingdom did miss out on joining the $100 Million losers club Jurassic World joined in 2015 and Incredibles 2 joined last weekend but that was more due to it opening below $150m last weekend almost 30% less than Jurassic World.

A drop off from Jurassic World was expected but it was bigger due to opening two weeks after opening internationally and getting mixed reactions. After Jurassic World opened so strongly in 2015 rival studios were wary of opening anything big against Fallen Kingdom but had something bigger than Sicario 2: Soldado or Uncle Drew it would have joined the $100 Million losers club.

After having the 20^th biggest opening weekend Fallen Kingdom had the 26^th biggest second weekend and the fourth biggest second weekend of 2018 after Black Panther, Avengers: Infinity War and Incredibles 2.

But Fallen Kingdom had the worst second-weekend drop of the franchise even bigger than 2001’s Jurassic Park 3 seen as the worst film of the franchise

2015’s Jurassic World took $109.56m down 49% taking $402.8m of $652.27m total

2001’s Jurassic Park 3 took $22.54m down 55.6% taking $124.82m of $181.17 total

1997’s The Lost World: Jurassic Park took $34.11m down 52.7% taking $141.54m of $229.08m total

1993’s Jurassic Park took $38.45m down 18.2% taking $120.17m of $357.06m

(for The Lost World: Jurassic Park and Jurassic Park ticket inflation is more than 100% since so their totals need to be more than doubled which does highlight how Fallen Kingdom really performed).

Jurassic Park and The Lost World: Jurassic Park had the best second weekends of the year taking $38.45m and $34.11m (Men in Black was the second biggest with $30.06m in 1997) Jurassic World had the second biggest in 2015 behind Star Wars: The Force Awakens.

Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom took $56.1m from 68 territories (including $237.1m from China; Jurassic World opened with $99.15m taking $228.74m) and $667.6m total and $932.4m worldwide.

Fallen Kingdom will cross the $1bn barrier globally next weekend making it the third film this year to do so after Black Panther and Avengers: Infinity War. Jurassic World took $1.67bn globally but it’s unlikely Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom will take more than $1.2bn.

• Incredibles 2 – Disney

Down 42.23% in its third weekend taking $46.41m and $440.6m; #16 biggest film in the US ahead of The Dark Knight Rises and just behind Avengers: Age of Ultron. Incredibles 2 will shortly push Star WarsL Rogue One out of the top 10 biggest films in the US. 

Became the third biggest animated film in the US behind 2004’s Shrek 2 $441.21m and Finding Dory $486.29m (2004’s Incredibles took $261.44m was then fifth biggest animated film after Shrek 2, Finding Nemo, Monsters Inc and Shrek). So, the success of Incredibles 2 14 years later shouldn’t have been a surprise especially after Finding Dory became biggest animated film in the US 13 years after Finding Nemo.

As with most major films that have strong word of mouth they drop 50%+ in their second weekend due to their massive openings but then held in the low 40% in their third weekends and beyond. Will face competition from Hotel Transylvania 3: Summer Vacation I two weeks’ time.

Had the ninth biggest third weekend after Star Wars: The Force Awakens, Avatar, Black Panther, Avengers: Infinity War, Marvel’s The Avengers, Jurassic World, Star Wars: The Last Jedi and Rogue One: A Star Wars Story slightly ahead of Beauty and the Beast $45.42m.

The Incredibles dropped only 47.2% in its third weekend (due to National Treasure $25.14m and The SpongeBob SquarePants Movie opening over Thanksgiving weekend) taking $26.52m and $177.55m 67.9% of its $261.44m total; inflation inflated the third weekend $39.11m and $262.46m 45.99% of $570.06m total.

In 2003 Finding Nemo dropped 39.1% in its third weekend taking $28.34m $191.48m of $339.71m total ($516.05m inflation inflated total);  In 2016 Finding Dory dropped 46% taking $41.81m in its third weekend.

Internationally took $44.3m from 36 territories and $207.1m total (with many major territories still to open over the next few weeks as it was held back to open at the start of the summer holidays and not because of the World Cup as many believe) and $646.8m globally overtaking the original’s $933m 2004 global total.

It’s the 10^th Pixar film to take over $600m worldwide

• Sicario 2: Soldado – Sony Pictures

Opens with $19.01m; received 63% Rotten Tomatoes score and B CinemaScore

While the original film was review focused the sequel is much more of straight action film opening bigger than Den of Thieves $15.2m taking $44.94m but less than Jack Reacher: Never Go Back $22.67m taking $58.69 and John Wick: Chapter Two $20.43m talking $92.02m and close to American Assassin $14.84m taking $36.24m

Sicario received critical acclaim 93% Rotten Tomatoes score opened September 2015 on a platform release expanding over three weeks ($401,288 from 6 screens; $1,717,301 from 59 screens and then $12,148,041 from 2,620 screens.

The original film ran in theatres for 17 weeks taking $46m but the sequel will likely last for half as long but take similar box office.

Took $8.4m from 55 territories being released by Sony and Lionsgate  

• Uncle Drew – Lionsgate

Opens with $15.34m; received 67% Rotten Tomatoes score and A CinemaScore opening bigger than was expected was tracking to open with $10-13m but these kinds of films often over perform.

Opening similar to 2016’s Barbershop: The Next Cut $20.24m and bigger than 2016’s Keanu $9.45m

• Ocean’s Eight – Warner Bros

Down 27.3% in its fourth weekend taking $8.33m and $115.01m #555 biggest film in the US between Fifty Shades Darker and Girls Trip.

Ocean’s Eight is currently ahead of Ocean’s Twelve and Ocean’s Thirteen performing far stronger in the US than internationally but has performed strong enough for the chance of a sequel.

2001’s Ocean’s Eleven increased 14.9% taking $16.9m and $127.73m of $183.41m

2004’s Ocean’s Twelve increased 12.3% taking $9.43m and $107.01m of $112.54m

Ocean’s Thirteen dropped 46.7% taking $6.0m and $102.1m of $117.15m

Ocean’s Eight took $13.8m internationally and $95m total and $209.7m worldwide; Ocean’s Eleven took $450.71m, Ocean’s Twelve $362.74m and Ocean’s Thirteen $311.31m globally.

• Tag – Warner Bros

Down 2.73% in its third weekend taking $5.88m and $40.13m

Holding better than last year’s Fist Fight which took $2.86 in its third weekend down 56.51% and $8.28m; but less than Game Night which took $7.86m down 24.5% and $45.01m.

Took $3.7m internationally and $7.4m total.  

• Solo: A Star Wars Story – Disney

Down 40.37% in its sixth weekend taking $4.5m and $207.67m; #187 biggest film in the US

Solo continues similar to last year’s Justice League which took $1.07m in its sixth weekend taking $222.69m and $229.2m total, Solo: A Star Wars Story won’t match Justice League total.

Solo took $6.18m internationally (boosted with $5.9m opening in Japan) total of $161.6m and globally total of $368.9; currently #309 biggest film globally between The Fugitive and Gone Girl.

• Deadpool 2 – 20^th Century Fox

Drops 32.2% in its seventh weekend taking $3.57m and $310.47m (#69 biggest film in the US ahead of and will shortly overtake Iron Man 2  and Thor: Ragnarok (Deadpool #42)

Deadpool 2 is holding close to the first film which took $4.89m in its seventh weekend taking 10% less than Deadpool’s $349.37m; If Deadpool 2 continues to hold it will take $330m+ only about $30m less than Deadpool which is far more than most thought it would take after opening with $125.5m less than Deadpool’s $132.34m with Solo opening the weekend after.  

Deadpool 2 became 20th Century Fox’s fifth biggest film in the US overtaking Home Alone, Star Wars: Episode II: Attack of the Clones, Independence Day and Star Wars this week.

The 11 Marvel X-Men film has taken over $2.35bn at the box office over the last 18 years in the US and almost $5.71bn globally.

Deadpool 2 will drop out of the top 10 next week the next X-Men film Dark Phoenix is due to be released by 20^th Century Fox in February but will the studio be part of Disney but the time its released.

Drew Goddard said last week he plans to start work on X-Force film once he has competed   Bad Times At The El Royale which is due to be released in October by Fox.

Deadpool 2 took $2.8m internationally and $408.7m total and $705m globally; #98 biggest film overtaking Captain America: The Winter Soldier; Deadpool 2 is the third biggest R-rated film world behind The Matrix Reloaded #95 $742.1 million and Deadpool #85 $783.1m.

UK Box Office Predictions

After having the second worst weekend of the year (top 10 took £6,480,094 compared with £5,699,055 April 20^th when The Guernsey Literary and Potato Peel Pie Society opened) this weekend is likely to be the lowest of the year. Due to hot temperatures again over the weekend (blaming the weather for poor BO is an excuse as distributors open their biggest films during the summer) England playing their quarter-final on Saturday afternoon and the lack of any major releases.

June 16^th-18^th 2017 was the slowest weekend at the UK box office (top 10 taking £5,745,646) since Oct 11^th-13^th 2013 (top 10 took £5,001,792) this weekend could be even lower with the World Cup Quarter Final on Saturday afternoon, hot weather and lack of new releases that will engage audiences The First Purge and Uncle Drew are unlikely to do this.

While Uncle Drew had a strong opening in the US last weekend it has very limited appeal in the UK which is similar to The Purge franchise they have performed well over the last 5 years in the US but failed to make much impact in the UK and The First Purge isn’t likely to di much better; The Purge: Election Year took 30% less than The Purge: Anarchy, if The First Purge performs similarly, would open with about £800k having a five day opening Uncle Drew likely to open with about £200k and slightly less for Whitney.

Next weekend Incredibles 2 and Skyscraper open and then two weeks after Hotel Transylvania 3 opens would have made much more sense for it to open last weekend in the UK as it did internationally to give it 2 weeks heads start on Incredibles 2 rather than opening two weeks after.

Opening in the UK

• The First Purge – Universal  

The Purge opened May 31st, 2013 with £1,019,877 taking £3.36m

The Purge: Anarchy opened 25th July 2014 with £1,165,143 taking £4.43m

The Purge: Election Year opened 26^th August 2016 with £807,803 taking £1.91m (was due for release on 15^th July in the UK but was delayed 6 weeks only a couple of weeks before its release date).

The First Purge opens Wednesday to give it a five-day opening

The previous three Purge films have performed far stronger in the US than internationally and this will likely be similar for the fourth film.

• Whitney – Altitude

Documentary film about the singer Whitney Houston featuring original studio recordings and a Capella performance of some of her most beloved hits, as well as home video content the filmmakers were able to collect with access to the Houston estate; directed by Kevin Macdonald; premiered at the 2018 Cannes Film Festival receiving positive reviews 84% Rotten Tomatoes score.

Kevin Macdonald previously directed documentaries Marley in 2012 opened 20^th April with £203,062 from 64 screens taking £943,917 and Touching the Void opened with £115,332 from 29 screens in December 2003 taking £1,489,421

He also directed 2006’s The Last King of Scotland opened with £861,991 taking £5,301,931 and 2009’s State of Play opened with £1,513,951 taking £5,405,100

• Uncle Drew – Lionsgate

US-based sports films have been a mainstay of US cinema for decades and successful at the US box office, but few have been successful at the UK box office 1997’s Space Jam being the most successful in recent years taking £11.64m but was probably more to the Looney Tunes than Michael Jordon.

Uncle Drew has been described as Pepsi: The Movie based on characters from their Pepsi Max adverts since 2012. The film was Pepsi’s idea they commissioned the screenplay and Pepsi Productions co-produced the film.

Pepsi and Coca-Cola have had a long relationship with film for decades in 1982 Coca-Cola bought Columbia Pictures (weeks before launching Diet Coke) soon afterwards Pepsi launched Pepsi-Cola Entertainment Group to get Pepsi placed in films their first was 1983’s Flashdance. Back to the Future became the first film to reference Pepsi. Coca-Cola sold Columbia Pictures in 1989 after several flops including Ishtar but the relationship between the two coke companies and the film industry is still as strong as ever with both key promotional partners on many films every year.

Over the years there have been several film properties that started their life as adverts; Disney’s Ernest films of the 80s, 1996’s Space Jam was inspired by a Nike advert and in the UK Rowan Atkinson’s Johnny English started life as a James Bond spoof Barclaycard advert; Johnny English opened April 2003 with £3,435,342 taking £19,209,597 and Johnny English Reborn opened September 2011 with £4,965,000 taking £20,354,068 the third film Johnny English Strikes Again opens in October.

Uncle Drew will have very limited interest in the UK opening closer to 2016’s Barbershop: A Fresh Cut £91,502 than 2008’s Semi-Pro £774,698; it’s unlikely Tiffany Haddish who had strong success with Girls Trip last year will help. Later in the year, she stars alongside Kevin Hart in Night School and in Tyler Perry’s comedy Nobody’s Fool.

Opening in the US

• Ant-Man and the Wasp – Disney

The twentieth film of the Marvel Cinematic Universe and sequel to 2015’s Ant-Man starring Paul Rudd, Evangeline Lilly, Michael Peña, Bobby Cannavale, Judy Greer, Michelle Pfeiffer, Laurence Fishburne, and Michael Douglas and directed by Peyton Reed.

A month before opening was tracking to open with $75m+ since then received positive reviews currently 85% Rotten Tomatoes score compared to 82% for Ant-Man could open up to $85m.

Ant-Man in 2015 opened with $57.22m was the second lowest opening for an MCU film after 2018’s The Incredible Hulk $55.41m. Ant- Man was very different tonally to the other MCU films being much more a family adventure rather than a comic-book film. The problem was the film had the generic MCU marketing campaign which has been in place over the last 10 years for the other films.

While Ant-Man appeared in Captain America Civil War he didn’t appear in Avengers: Infinity War but the post-credit scenes in Ant-Man and the Wasp show how the film connects with the events in Infinity War as Ant-Man and the Wasp is happening at the same time as those events.

In an interview with Evangeline Lilly said she will no longer her complaints from men about their uncomfortable superhero suit saying “Have men not had the life experience of being uncomfortable for the sake of looking good? And they’re just like ‘What is this? This sucks!’ Why?’ Why do we have to go through this?!’ Whereas a woman is like, ‘I don’t know. This is, like, normal.’”

For all the praise Marvel have had over the last decade for their films it took them 10 years to launch their first non-white comic-book film Black Panther and the first leading female comic-book film Captain Marvel will open next year. While DC successfully launched Wonder Woman last year while Marvel fans still await Black Widow film after already  appearing in six MCU films (Iron Man 2, The Avengers, Captain America: The Winter Soldier, Avengers: Age of Ultron, Captain America: Civil War and Avengers: Infinity War).

The film opens internationally in 40 territories including much of Europe with the UK notably absent being delayed four weeks opening August 3^rd the first time in the 10-year history of Marvel Cinematic Universe a film has been delayed in the UK as with many of them UK lead the global release.

Ant-Man took $519m worldwide in 2015 $180.2m in the US and $339.1m in US the lowest growing MCU film released by Disney in the US and internationally. 

 

• The First Purge – Universal Pictures

The fourth part in The Purge franchise and the prequel depicting the origins of the first annual Purge. Starring Y’Lan Noel, Lex Scott Davis, Joivan Wade, Luna Lauren Velez, and Marisa Tomei and directed by Gerard McMurray; has received mixed reviews 45% Rotten Tomatoes score.

Expected to open with $25m over its five-day opening weekend as previous films the fourth film will be very front-loaded taking $60m+.

The Purge opened July 2013 with $34.05m taking $64.47m

The Purge: Anarchy opened July 2014 $29.81m taking $71.96m

The Purge: Election Year opened July 2016 with $31.51m taking $79.21m.