UK Box Office July 17th-19th 2020 week 29

1. Onward – £49,271 –  £5,432,342

Over the previous 20+ years this weekend the start of the summer holidays was marked with the release of one of the biggest films of the summer, last year it was The Lion King and up to March this year it was meant to be Tenet and Top Gun: Maverick.

Instead Onward returned to #1 for it is the fourth week over 3 months increasing 40.4% in the fifth week of its cinema release and over 8,000 people opted to see the film in the cinema despite it being available on digital download since May and on video since June.

Onward is the 1,070th biggest film in the UK between Dawn of the Dead and 21 (close to Racing Stripes, Smurfs: The Lost Village, The SpongeBob SquarePants Movie and The Nutcracker and the Four Realms) and 1,241th biggest inflation inflated film between The American President and The Nutcracker and the Four Realms (close to John Carter, Smurfs: The Lost Village, Muppet Treasure Island and Real Steel).

147^th biggest animation film in the UK between Smurfs: The Lost Village and The SpongeBob SquarePants Movie (close to Cloudy with a Chance of Meatballs, Spies In Disguise, The Angry Birds Movie 2 and Wonder Park).

Onward has replaced 2001’s Atlantis: The Lost Empire as Disney’s lowest-grossing animated film which took £5.9m and £9.83m inflation inflated).

Onward as most of February and March releases will have a star beside its total box office as whilst Onward did only take £5.29m before cinema lockdown opening two weeks before impacted on it is box office. With the Easter holidays a couple of weeks later Onward should have gone on to take more than double of it is current box office even with the competition from Peter Rabbit 2 and Trolls World Tour.

23 Pixar films have taken over £690m at the box office since Toy Story in 1996 and over £890m inflation inflated.

Disney are due to release their 24^th Pixar film Soul on November 27^th with one untitled film for release in 2021, two untitled in 2022 and one untitled In 2023.

2. Star Wars: The Empire Strikes Back (40th Anniversary) £33,343 – £7,309,065

Down 33.8% in its second weekend

The film was re-released in cinemas for its 40th anniversary but could be seen as a promotion for Disney+ as the film was re-released in 2K with the 4K version on Disney+, so Disney could use have used 20^th Century Fox’s 20^th anniversary of Star Wars: A New Hope re-release trailer “for an entire generation people have been experiencing The Empire Strikes Back the only way it’s been possible on the in 2K screen, but if you’ve only seen it this way, you haven’t seen it at all.’ And then show how it looks in 4K.

That said had The Empire Strikes Back been re-released in a sparkling new 70mm print the comparison with the 4K version would not be that different.

It is the fourth time The Empire Strikes Back has been in the top 10 over the last 40 years; took over £9m during its original release in May 1980; took £7.2m in 1997 as part of the 20^th anniversary re-release of A New Hope and then most recently took £6.3m over 17 weeks of Secret Cinema, but tickets were about £80, 5,573% more than regular tickets were for The Empire Strikes Back in 1980.

In 1980 The Empire Strikes Back was #1 for 9 weeks; in 1997 The Empire Strikes Back was #1 for one week (opening with £1.55m) and in 2015 was in the lower end of the top 10 for the majority of it is 16 weeks run during the summer.

The Empire Strikes Back has taken £22.8m over its lifetime, but each of the four had quite different prices, in 1980 average ticket cost only £1.42, in 1997 it was £4.07, for Secret Cinema in 2015 it was £80+ and then for its current release most cinemas were about £5.

The Empire Strikes Back has been rated by the BBFC three times for cinema since 1980 but all three have three different running times, in 1980 124m 15s; in 1997 126m 52s and in 2020 127m 15s? As 2020 should surely be shorter than 1997 as sadly would be missing Fox logo?

3. Trolls World Tour –  £23,454   – £115,305

15 weeks after Trolls World Tour was released on VOD and third week of cinema release, the film is released on video next week.

The first Trolls film was a big hit in the UK opening in October 2016 with £5,440,878 taking £23,364,692, it was helped having featuring Justin Timberlake’s song of the summer from the film Cannot stop the feeling, the video has been viewed over 1.22bn times on YouTube

The music from Trolls World Tour was not nearly as popular but that often happens with music from sequels.

4. Black Water: Abyss –  £16,093 –  £60,001

Sequel to sequel to Australian crocodile horror Black Water which took £65,000 in UK cinemas in 2008.

Last year Crawl took £1,060,836; while 20 years ago Lake Placid took £3,493,960

The film received far more media coverage than would have in a normal situation and not made the top 15, but as it was the first new release since lockdown ended it was the first new film people could see in cinemas.

5. Dirty Dancing – £14,398    – £3,967,555

Down 4.8%; Includes regular cinema screenings and drive-in screenings across the UK; regular cinema screening tickets were about £5 but the drive-in screenings were about £40.

Secret Cinema was planned to hold its third Dirty Dancing event this summer (starting July 22^nd) but was delayed to net summer due to Coronavirus with tickets from £49. The previous times were in July 2016 taking £1.9m over two weeks (£946,086 week 1 and £953,520 week 2) and in 2013 when over 12,000 people attended Secret Cinema event over three days.

Dirty Dancing originally opened in the UK in October 1987 with £1.01m taking £1.62m but has played regularly in cinemas since.

Lionsgate last re-released Dirty Dancing in cinemas on February 14^th for one night only to celebrate the films 30^th anniversary ahead of its DVD re-release. In 2007 Dirty Dancing took £224,000 from its 20th-anniversary re-release.

Also opened

Bill & Ted’s Excellent Adventure – Studiocanal

4K restoration opened with £6,867 from 27 screens taking £7,759 total

As with Dirty Dancing, the film was released in regular cinemas and drive-in cinemas

The film is released on 4K Ultra HD on August 10^th in the UK and the third film Bill & Ted Face The Music is currently due for release on August 28^th.

Bill & Ted’s Excellent Adventure first opened in the UK in April 1990 (I saw it at the old Cannon Oxford Street closed in 1994 now a Primark shop, was a fleapit five-screen cinema on par with the Cannon Panton Street no Odeon Haymarket, as the film had a limited release in the UK) and found a cult success when it was released on home video.

The sequel Bill & Teds Bogus Journey opened in 1992 had more success in the UK taking £5.41m.

Drive-in cinemas

Since cinemas reopened on July 4^th drive-in cinemas have become extremely popular in the UK as they give people the cinema experience from the safety of their car and there are now 40 across the UK that will run between July and September.

Ticket prices range from £27-£35 and the films have been the classics including Dirty Dancing, Grease, Stand By Me, Pretty Woman, along with more recent releases Knives Out, Parasite, Joker, and Rocketman.

The Luna Group has eight drive-ins across the UK, TheDriveIn has 13 drive-ins across 12 UK cities and Adventure Drive-In will have 144 screenings across 20 UK venues and Odeon have also a drive-in cinema in Brighton.

When cinemas shut down in March was surprised that major exhibitors did not look to open as many drive-ins across the UK as possible as they would always likely be the first cinemas to reopen after lockdown and the cinemas the majority will feel safe going back to far soon than regular cinemas. As they offer cinemas a different cinema experience people are willing to pay much more for the experience, similar to Secret Cinema and Event Cinema screenings.

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From January everyone saw what was happening in China and must have known as Spanish Flu a century ago COVID would go global within days, but even in early March UK response was ‘no discernible impact’ to cinema despite very soft opening for Onward.11 days later UK cinemas were forced to close.

The UK should have seen how China shut down cinemas in January and other countries across Asia and Europe reacted much quickly to COVID the UK should have responded far quicker instead waited for governmental advice and lockdown came at least a week too late.

In early March asked why UK cinemas did not implement any additional safety measures as others had done (Ireland’s Omniplex launched additional safety measures on March 10th).

The industry saw how China immediate shutdown cinemas days before the most lucrative time of the year (New Year) so surely international exhibitors should have planned for a similar worst-case scenario but instead waited for governmental guidance

Surely in late February, most in the UK expected some kind of lockdown why was mass panic in supermarkets with toilet paper shortages.

I am only negative because it saddens me how the industry since 2003 became complacent after 17 years of growth, instead of going for the 200m+ admissions many predicted in the early 90s would happen in the 00s.

They went for a different option to increase prices up 66% since box office has grown almost 70% since 2002 while admissions up 0.7%. I believe if they kept prices increase as they previously did last year admissions would be 250m+ and BO would be at a higher level it was last year, and more cinemagoers mean more of the highly profitable popcorn and syrup sold.

The way exhibitors have handled the lockdown is exactly how they have handled cinema for almost 20 years it is always short-term gain.

Reopening July 4th was always going to be far too soon for the majority and cinema should be for the many, not the few. On June 25^th hours after cinemas opened their opening line-up Warner announced they were delaying Tenet and Disney were delaying Mulan.

In early May two weeks before Boris Johnson announced his plans to loosen the lockdown over several stages Ireland had announced theirs which was much slower with bigger gaps and had cinemas reopening on July 25^th. Coronavirus cases have dropped off far faster in Ireland than in England but despite this England’s plans were ahead of the rest of the UK’s.

The same scientists who said lockdown started two weeks too late, said it also ended two weeks too early, who should you trust more the scientists or government officials who have little to gain from saying that the lockdown should be longer?

UK box office in detail

This weekend’s top 15 box office took £241,928 down 8.6% from last weekend (£264,643 )

The weekend admissions 34,713 down 19.5% from last week (43,098)

Top three took 43.8% (£106,068) of the top 15); Onward 13.2% (£49,271) 20.3%;  Star Wars: Episode V – The Empire Strikes Back 13.8% (£33,343); Trolls World Tour 9.7% (£23,454);

2019 (£21,701,796) of the top 10; The Lion King (67.9%) (£16,671,764); Toy Story  (11.1%) (£2,704,238) Spider-Man: Far From Home (9.5%) (£2,325,794);

2018: (£19,632,862); Mamma Mia: Here we Go Again! (£9,735,931); Hotel Artemis (£357,261); Spitfire (£211,464); Thomas & Friends: Big World! Big Adventures! The Movie (£125,081); Escape Plan 2 (£6,737); #1 Mamma Mia: Here we Go Again! £9,735,931 1st week 702 screens (49.6% of top 10)

2017: (£22,066,254); Dunkirk (£10,023,720); Andre Rieu’s 2017 Maastricht Concert (£1,439,604); #1 Dunkirk £10,023,720 1st week 638 screens (45.4% of top 10)

2016: (£16,914,463); The BFG (£5,288,529); Star Trek Beyond (£4,740,040); Andre Rieu’s 2016 Maastricht Concert (£1,414,075);  #1 The BFG £5,288,529 1st week 680 screens (31.2% of the top 10)

2015; (£13,074,413); Ant-Man (£4,011,345); Andre Rieu’s 2015 Maastricht Concert (£1,107,000); The Gallows (£335,875); Self/Less (£215,247); Thomas & Friends: Sodor’s Legend Of The Lost Treasure (£155,354); True Story (£137,463); 13 Minutes (£12,572); #1 Ant-Man £4,011,345 1st week 555 screens (30.6% of top 10)

2014: (£16,203,729); Dawn of the Planet of the Apes (£8,705,995); Monty Python Live (Mostly) – O2 London 2014 (£1,178,091); Andre Rieu’s 2014 Maastricht Concert (£830,586); Pudsey the Dog: The Movie (£446,450); Some Like It Hot (Re: 2014) (£12,869); #1 Dawn of the Planet of the Apes 1st week 561 screens (53.7% of top 10)

2013: (£9,787,596); The World’s End (£2,123,576); The Frozen Ground (£89,515); Breathe In (£26,910); Easy Money (£21,346); Roman Holiday (Re: 2013) (£12,701); #1 Monsters University £2,791,078 2nd week 532 screens 19% drop (28.5% of top 10)

2012 (£18,751,675); The Dark Knight Rises (£14,362,443); Lola Versus (£348); #1 The Dark Knight Rises £14,362,443 1st week 594 screens (76.6% of top 10)

2011 (£16,959,452); Cars 2 (£3,541,664); Horrible Bosses (£2,077,239); Beginners (£146,096); #1 Harry Potter & the Deathly Hallows: Part 2 £8,523,417 2nd week 581 screens 64% drop (50.2% of top 10)

2010: (£15,116,235); Inception (£5,912,814); The Concert (£38,053); #1 Inception £5,912,814 1st week 452 screens (39.1% of top 10)

2009; (£27,606,395); Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince (£19,784,924); Moon (£157,867); The Informers (£6,149); #1 Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince £19,784,924 1st week 584 screens (71.6% of top 10)

2008; (£14,835,085); Wall·E (£4,253,736); Meet Dave (£681,584); Donkey Punch (£144,953); City of Men (£17,000); Standard Operating Procedure (£3,539); #1 Mamma Mia! £4,561,109 2nd week 435 screens 31% drop (30.7% of top 10)

2007:( £11,971,119); Hairspray (£2,045,912); Firehouse Dog (£90,730); #1 Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix £6,639,973 2nd week 566 screens 60% drop (55.4% of top 10)

2006; (£11,474,975); The Break-Up (£2,412,097); Stormbreaker (£1,244,892); Garfield 2 (£739,560); #1 Pirates of the Caribbean 2: Dead Man’s Chest £3,868,216 3rd week 520 screens 36% drop (33.7% of top 10)

2005 (£11,195,244); Madagascar (£5,431,639); Wedding Crashers (£2,182,597); Festival (£34,010); #1 Madagascar £5,431,639 1st week 505 screens (48.5% of top 10)

2004 (£14,628,009); Spider-Man 2 (£8,766,902); The Prince and Me (£366,942); Nathalie (£39,084); #1 Spider-Man 2 £8,766,902 1st week 504 screens (59.9% of top 10)

2003 (£7,829,988); The Hulk (£3,529,440); Buffalo Soldiers (£113,664); Brown Sugar (£90,877); Four Feathers (£61,800); #1 The Hulk £3,529,440 1st 500 screens (45.1% of top 10)

2002 (£7,900,053); Stuart Little 2 (£1,343,398); Jason X (£233,090); The Abduction Club (£24,940); #1 Scooby-Doo £2,513,564 2nd week 474 screens 51% drop (31.8% of top 10)

Top 3 next weekend took 77.9% (£14,899,487) of the top 10 (£19,106,503); The Lion King 55.8% (£10,660,287); Toy Story  3 13.2%) (££2,525,047) Spider-Man: Far From Home 8.9% (£1,714,153)

Other Box Office News

Warner Bros announced on Monday they will not be releasing Tenet worldwide on August 12th, saying that the film will be opening in the US later this year but not have a traditional release, this probably means they plan to open the film international earlier. While films have opened internationally early in the past including recent James Bond films and Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom their US release was with a couple of weeks.

The problem with Tenet with Coronavirus cases still dramatically increasing in the US it would be difficult to be certain when cinemas will reopen in the US, so if Tenet were to open internationally September 11th, the US release might follow in a month or two.

While international markets do take upwards of 50% of films box office including China, when films open early they often take less in the US; Jurassic World opened with $208.8m but Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom $148m with the film taking 36% less; Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom took 36% less than Jurassic World in the US but only 12% less internationally.

While international exhibitors have said their cinemas are reopening there is little to suggest that cinemagoers will be returning in their pre-lockdown levels, so exhibitors might demand Warner and Disney release Tenet and Mulan but they surely need some guarantee if they were to open the next month they won’t just be a canary in the coalmine. As while exhibitors have reopened cinemas there will still be a nervousness amongst many people to go back to the cinema for many months as many do not believe the safety measures they have put in place go far enough. While many might not wear face masks in auditoriums then surely everyone should have their temperatures checked before entering cinemas as that would put many people’s minds at ease when they hear a fellow cinemagoer cough or sneeze or touch a handrail without using hand sanitizer before.

Might be being over the top with my fears but exhibitors need to be visibly doing everything they can to make cinemagoers feel safe and going overboard at the start will make the majority come back to the cinema that they otherwise will do as cinemas had hygiene issues long before the lockdown and many of the measures the UK have put in place should be standard practise long before Coronavirus.

Warner Bros made make a rod for their own back having always given into previous demands from Christopher Nolan, as while other studios quickly delayed their summer releases when the lockdown was likely they did not move Tenet.

Disney dated Mulan to open the week after Tenet in July and were surely playing a game of chicken with Warner with each studio expecting to move first, Warner did the end of June moving Tenet to August and Disney then also moved Mulan to open the week after.

By keeping Tenet dated in the summer its release has become more symbolic to exhibitors a sign that cinema is back, as it is for Christopher Nolan but to Warner Bros, it is a $200m+ film they want to turn a profit.

Tenet has become more than a film and like face masks have become its summer release has become political and as Phil in Groundhog Day only sees flakes of snow when everyone else sees it as it really is a blizzard.

With films like Contagion and Outbreak the film industry should have been better equipped in dealing with natural disasters as its normally the geeky scientist or medical masterminds like Anthony Fauci rather than governmental officials that saves the day.

The problem is Tenet became the last film standing (alongside Mulan) and exhibitors saw it as their beacon of hope as Christopher Nolan probably saw Tenet being the film that saves the summer and is the first film to open after Coronavirus he will become the saviour of cinema to his disciples.

The problem is Warner spent $200m+ making Tenet and will spend another $150m+ marketing the film and making over 200 70mm/IMAX 70mm and 35mm prints as they expected Tenet to take similar box office globally as Interstellar and Inception.

While Warner Bros has denied it Tenet will need to take a similar box office of Inception worldwide $800m+ to turn a profit, a few months before lockdown this was always likely but if it was to be the canary in the coal mine it’s a massive gamble even if Warner expect it to have long legs.

With Coronavirus cases in the US will surpassing 4 million confirmed on Tuesday (taking 98 days to hit 1 million. 41 days, to hit 2 million. 29 days to hit 3 million. 15 days to hit 4 million) the US should have expected a similar 6-month cinema shut down as China, but China has only reopened after 6 months due to draconian safety measures US exhibitors would never implement.

The problem is with all other summer releases delayed Tenet became a beacon of hope for exhibitors, this was their light at the end of the tunnel, but need to remember that Tenet is just a film and shouldn’t be seen as anything more?

Would imagine Tenet now will have its world premiere at Venice and Toronto Film Festivals in early September and then open internationally late September with China/US release pencilled in for October 2^nd, but that would mean Wonder Woman: 1984 would be delayed, but separating international release with US for Tenet will cause issues with Warner Bros other releases.

That said the original Wonder Woman film was a far bigger success in the US than the US while Christopher Nolan’s last film Interstellar was also much bigger internationally than in the US, but that could have been due to Warner Bros having international and Paramount US.

UK cinemas were far too slow to react to Coronavirus even though they must have to see what happened in China and other countries since January. On March 6^th, the U.K. Cinema Association said it was business as normal but 11 days later all UK cinemas were forced shut. They were however very quick to announce cinemas would reopen July 4^th when Boris Johnson announced in May that the hospitality sector would reopen from July 4^th.

Lockdown gave exhibitors a ‘once in a lifetime chance’ to reinvent the cinema experience with their reopening of cinema, but all they have to show for it are token safety measures that will make everyone believe cinema is safe again.

Exhibitors and distributors should have spent the three months while cinemas were closed to launch a marketing campaign to get people back into the cinemagoing habit. As after the last 3+ months majority have probably not missed going to the cinema are happy to watch new releases on VOD as did not like what the cinema experience had become with smelly foods and selfish cinemagoers why those people will not rush back just because cinemas have reopened.

While much is made about admissions increasing the last two years, they only had a minimal increase and that was more to do with average ticket price dropping rather than more people going to the cinema. UK admissions have been almost flat since 2002 despite BO increasing almost 70% since had they continued to grow as did between the mid-80s to 2002 would be 250m+ now but 2003 was the year cinema industry opted for a different approach for grow to dramatically increase prices.

In 1985 British Film year started the cinema renaissance which continued for the next 17 years with UK admissions growing dramatically for most years, in 1996  there was National Cinema Day when all cinemas were £1 (it was repeated again in 1997) both years saw a dramatic boost in admission. I have said this many times before next year is the 125^th anniversary of cinema (starts in December this year in France, then the UK in February and May in the USA) and this could be part of a yearlong celebration of cinema.

China started to reopen their cinemas on Monday but with far stricter safety measures that are in place in the US or the UK, they include no food or drink sold, temperature scans of customers before entry, masks mandatory at all time for cinemagoers, a metre gap between cinemagoers and no film can run over two hours.

Dolittle and Bloodshot open on Friday and 1917 the following weekend, but the big question will be if Tenet and Mulan will open next month. If a decision to delay both is not announced this week how Dolittle and Bloodshot will give a better understand if cinemagoers are ready to go back to cinemas in China. Limited Chinese cinemas briefly reopening in mid-March, but closed within a few days.

Much has been written over the last few weeks that international cinemas have now reopened asking why big the studios have to hold back opening their films globally just because the US has a problem with Coronavirus.

Many countries are almost completely dependent on US films to fill their cinemas and as over the last decade majority of films now open day and date globally there are very few films that weren’t released internationally before lockdown, so cinemas reopened almost like they were frozen in time from March with almost the same film schedules.

The reason why studios will not want to open their big films international early is simple the majority of them still take more money from the US than international so opening a film international early will affect its US box office. This has been seen when films open a week after international so the damage will be even more severe if it was months.

John Fithian said studios “They should release their movies and deal with this new normal,”…  “Studios may not make the same amount of money that they did before, but if they don’t start distributing films, there’s going to be a big hole in their balance sheets. This is a $42 billion-a-year business. Most businesses would take 85% of that instead of zero.” But surely if a studio could make 100% if they delay a film for a few months it makes far more sense, but exhibitors are only looking at the short-term, why, admissions have been in decline for almost 20 years in the US.

Maybe studios would hold to these release dates if they got something back from exhibitors as the current theatrical window should be voided and films should be allowed to be released within weeks on VOD if that were the case studios would be more willing to take risks opening films sooner? While Tenet has generated huge media coverage it will still be a massive gamble to release an original film as the canary in the coalmine having no idea of the audience, while Nolan disciples and Covidiots will rush back Tenet needs many more to go back to the cinema.

The problem opening film international early is of course piracy, within hours of films being released they are available illegally online.

Analysts were predicting that Disney might not have any new films released In 2020 as Disney year ends in September and if Mulan gets delayed they would have only Maleficent: Mistress of Evil, Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker and Onward for 2020 releases dramatically down from 2019 their record-breaking year. Analysts were also slightly concerned over “a modest slate” in fiscal 2021 with Cruella, Jungle Cruise and The Eternals, but with 20^th Century Studios they will have Avatar 2, but could it possibly be as successful as the original film as 12 years is a long gap for the sequel.

There was a suggestion that Tenet could open in different US cities at different times as films used to open in the 70s with a roadshow release, Christopher Nolan can go from town to town with his 70mm print in his car and meet all of his disciples.

The problem goes back decades with the dependency UK has with the US for films despite £1bn+ spent by the National Lottery over the last 25 years making films in the UK.

This money should have been spent building a studio infrastructure acquiring assets along the way like Working Title, Rank Films, Polygram Films, Cannon Cinemas and Pinewood Studios, instead, it was divided up by the project.

The UK cinemas industry is in a similar position it was when Barry Norman did this report in 1993 still as dependent on US films for cinemas and bring in cinemagoers on mass. As films like Tenet and No Time To Die both seen as British films as they were made in the UK or have a strong UK production team and cast should be made in the UK by British film companies. The problem is that there has not been a real British film studio making dozens of British films in the UK and releasing them world since Rank did it up to the 70s. Between the 40s and 60s, they were making and distributing as many films worldwide as the major studios.

 

UK Box Office Top 10

 

UK Box Office Predictions

With Tenet moved out of August to an undetermined date and will likely be shortly followed by Mulan also moving the next month is likely to be as soft as the last three weeks. Cineworld and Vue had planned to reopen their cinemas on July 31^st but this will likely now be delayed.

Over the last two weeks, some small films have opened in cinemas including Black Water: Abyss, Dreambuilders and Clemency along with The Empire Strikes Back and Bill & Ted’s Excellent Adventure re-release (opened with £6,867 from 27 screens).

This weekend sees the eagerly awaited black and white version of Oscar-winning Parasite  (opened with £1.39m in February taking £12.1m) 

,

Saint Frances (received positive reviews) and then next weekend Inception 10^th anniversary (was original due two weeks earlier) 

Flash Gordon 40th Anniversary and Summerland.

Normally these films would be barely mentioned in the media but without any major releases and being the only new releases they should spark much more interest than many of the films currently on release.