- Downton Abbey: A New Era – £3,072,762 –NE
497th biggest opening between Alien Resurrection and Jumper (close to The Woman in Black, Cats, Ocean’s Thirteen and Knives Out) and 726th biggest inflation inflated between Mulan and The Imitation Game (close to The Social Network, Master and Commander, Suffragette and Erin Brockovich).
7th biggest opening of 2022 between Morbius and The Lost City and the 21st biggest since cinemas reopened between The Suicide Squad and The Lost City; Downton Abbey had the 17th biggest opening of 2019 between How to Train Your Dragon 3 and Pokemon Detective Pikachu.
65th biggest Universal Pictures opening (Downton Abbey #34) between Lucy and Central Intelligence (close to Cats, Everest, Little Fockers and Us).
If Downton Abbey: A New Era was an original drama £3.07m would be a strong opening as it would be similar to British based dramas (many inflated with previews) including The King’s Speech (£3,523,102); Suffragette (£2,938,446); Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy (£2,814,860); The Imitation Game (£2,742,725); The Theory of Everything (£3,749,293); The Second-Best Exotic Marigold Hotel (£3,771,852).
But it wasn’t as instead it was the latest instalment of the 21-year-old Gosford Park Cinematic Universe, similar to the other cinematic universe has a massive fanbase in the UK with almost 11m watching the final episode in 2015 on ITV and repeats still popular on ITV3.
Would normally expect a sequel to open bigger than the original film but be more front-loaded and while younger audiences have been going steadily to the cinema ever since they reopened Downton Abbey: A New Era was the first test since No Time To Die to see if older audiences were returning in high numbers or if No Time To Die was a one-off. As you would expect that people would be going back to the cinema as they did pre-COVID by now as they are doing for many other activities.
So why did less than half of those (717,571 Vs 408,612) who saw the first film in cinema over the opening weekend not see the sequel three years later? Similar to the first film the sequel generated massive media coverage, but the same could be said about Murder on the Orient Express and Death on the Nile opening 62% less than the first film.
The difference was Death on the Nile was delayed several more times and was beset by other non-film related issues and had a much lower key launch while also Downton Abbey: A New Era had the weekend to itself while Death on the Nile opened at the start of half-term but Uncharted and Doctor Strange 2 next week for Downtown Abbey: A New Era isn’t competition for either film as they are two very different audiences. It could be older audiences prefer going to the cinema during the week so Downtown Abbey: A New Era could perform Mon-Thurs as well as it did Fri-Sun.
Films like Belfast, Death on the Nile, The Duke and Operation Mincemeat should have helped Downton Abbey attract the audience of the original film as other cinematic universe films do on Thursday many of those who saw Spider-Man No Way Home will be seeing Doctor Strange 2, so why if they rushed out to see the first Downton Abbey film wasn’t there a similar rush for the sequel as it received similar reviews to the first film?
Had the third widest opening ever in the UK opening in 746 cinemas behind 772 cinemas in No Time To Die and just below Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker in 740 cinemas while the first film opened in 732 cinemas; but in most cinemas, these films played in multiple screens so played in up to 3,000 screens about two-thirds of UK screens, so no surprise these wide opening take upwards of 90% of weekend BO. It never needed to open so wide as so many other films have done over recent years especially as you would expect it to hold many of the screens this weekend against Doctor Strange 2 and films playing to older audiences normally play longer as audiences don’t rush out to see them over the opening weekend as they will do for Doctor Strange 2.
It was originally set for release on December 22nd, but then moved to March 18th and then April 29th in the UK and May 20th in the US; receives its world premiere in London on April 25th.
The first Downton Abbey film attracted an older 45+ audience many of whom haven’t returned to the cinema since seeing No Time To Die in October according to research revealed at the UKCA conference last month.
The first film opened in September 2019 with £5,180,865 from 728 screens taking £28,248,361; took £9,882,483 in its opening week taking 52.4% (£5,180,865) Fri-Sun and £4,701,618 Mon-Thurs; dropped 36.6% in the second weekend taking £3,280,442 and £13,162,925 46.60% of BO taking 5.45x opening; it stayed #1 for 3 weeks with Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness opening the week after the sequel will only be #1 for one week.
While younger audiences are fickle going quickly from one new megamovie to the next the grey pound is much more loyal and lucrative, and they also go to the cinema as much during the week as the weekend; 2017’s Murder on the Orient Express took £8,612,958 in its opening 7 days taking 42% of its box office (£3,627,358) Mon- Thurs and dropped only 12% in its second weekend from £4,985,600 to £4,376,429 going on to take £23,900,453.
Downtown Abbey was originally conceived as a spinoff of 2001’s Gosford Park also written by Julian Fellowes opened with £837,169 taking £12,259,248 and £22,268,006 inflation inflated.
7.6m watched the first episode of the first series in 2010 on ITV, 9m watched the first episodes of season two and season three, 9.2m watched the first episode of series 4 and 8.4m watched the first episode of series 5. The final episode of Downtown Abbey was broadcast on ITV1 on Christmas Day 2015 with an audience of 6.9m with another 4m watching on catchup with a total of 10.9m. Was the most-watched TV programme on Christmas Day, the first time ITV had managed to do so in 15 years.
Since the final episode was broadcast on ITV on Christmas Day 2015 had been rumours of a spinoff film, in July 2018 it was announced a film would be made and Universal Pictures would release the film worldwide.
Research at the UKCA Conference at the start of the month said 60%+ of cinemagoers who saw No Time To Die six months ago have yet to return to the cinema, this is despite films including Dune, House of Gucci, West Side Story, Belfast, Death on the Nile, The Duke and Operation Mincemeat all opening since. So how Downton Abbey: A New Era opens and holds over the coming few weeks is far more important than Doctor Strange 2 opening next week as its opening is far more predictable.
Downton Abbey: A New Era is part of the Gosford Park Cinematic Universe; 2001’s Gosford Park opened with £837,169 taking £12,259,248 and £22,268,006 inflation inflated. This led to Downton Abbey launched in 2010 running for 52 episodes until 2015.
Since the final episode was broadcast on ITV on Christmas Day 2015 had been rumours of a spinoff film, in July 2018 it was announced a film would be made and Universal Pictures would release the film worldwide. The film opened in September 2019 with £5,180,865 from 728 screens taking £28,248,361; took £9,882,483 in its opening week taking 52.4% (£5,180,865) Fri-Sun and £4,701,618 Mon-Thurs.
Julian Fellowes latest TV drama The Gilded Age first series was released on HBO and Sky Atlantic in January which has been seen as a prequel to Downton Abbey and a second will be shown next year.
2015’s The Second-Best Exotic Marigold Hotel opened with 40% more than The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel £3,771,852 Vs £2,222,051 but took 23% less £15,575,797 Vs £20,308,480. So Downton Abbey 2 could open bigger than the first film but will have shorter legs taking 20% less about £23m-£25m.
Bookings for Downton Abbey: The New Era look to be much stronger in Everyman Cinemas, which often target an older audience than major chains that target younger audiences.
Films based on British TV shows have had mixed success at the box office the hits mostly based on comedy series The Inbetweeners Movie, Absolutely Fabulous: The Movie, Ali G Indahouse, Kevin & Perry Go Large, Alan Partridge: Alpha Papa, Bean, Mrs Brown’s Boys D’Movie, In the Loop. Films based on drama series including The Avengers, Edge of Darkness, The Saint, Spooks, State of Play, The Sweeney, The Singing Detective and Widows have had more mixed success.
Other films targetting the grey pound include
2015’s The Second-Best Exotic Marigold Hotel opening £3,771,852 taking £15,575,797; increased 5.4% second weekend taking £2,342,095 and £7,014,101 34.5% of £20,308,480 total
2017’s Murder on the Orient Express opened £4,985,600 taking £23,900,453; took £8,612,958 in its opening 7 days taking 42% of its box office (£3,627,358) Mon- Thurs; dropped second weekend 12.2% taking £4,376,429 and £12,989,387 54.3% of £23,900,453;
2017 Victoria and Abdul opened £1,846,970 taking £9,434,937
2013’s Philomena opened £1,509,726 taking £10,470,225; dropped 6.7% second weekend taking £1,407,318 and £4,762,182 45.4% of £10,470,225
2011- Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy opened £2,814,860 taking £14,133,500
2006 The Queen opened £856,273 taking £9,381,693; increased 6.1% second weekend £908,295 taking £2,658,523 28.3% of £9,381,693
2003 Calendar Girls opened £1,762,505 taking £20,174,133; increased 5.3% second weekend £1,855,986 taking £5,679,683 28.1% of £20,174,133
As with other films targetting older audience this year including Death on the Nile, The Duke and Operation Mincemeat the weekday box office for Downton Abbey: A New Era will likely be similar to weekend box office. Doctor Strange 2 opening on Thursday shouldn’t have much impact as it plays to a much older demographic.
- 2. Sonic the Hedgehog 2 – £1,349,144 – £21,859,488
Down 18% in its fifth weekend
4th biggest film of 2022 was Uncharted and Fantastic Beasts 3; 6th biggest film since cinemas reopened between Uncharted and Dune and Paramount’s biggest film since Rocketman (£23.5m).
Sonic the Hedgehog 2 overtook the BO of the first film last weekend but it’s impossible to compare the two films as the first film opened at the start of COVID with cinema attendance slowing down in the weeks before the first lockdown and films in late February early March before lockdown weren’t attracting the audiences they would in normal conditions (despite industry saying at the time that everything was normal);
In 2020’s Sonic The Hedgehog dropped 51% in its fourth-weekend #4 taking £951,104 from 602 screens and £18,459,138 95.7% of £19,280,822; the film dropped heavily due to Onward opening with £3,419,500 but had cinemas not closed two weeks later as often with half-term films Sonic The Hedgehog would have played through to Easter and taking £22m+. As Uncharted dropped 21% taking £1,059,861 #2 595 screens taking £21,762,317 in its 5th weekend of £23,641,476
226th biggest film in the UK between Dune and Mr Beans Holiday (close to Men In Black 2, Toy Story, Men in Black 3 and E.T) (274th film to take £20m+) and 428th biggest inflation inflated between Cinderella and Bruno (close to Stardust, Dumb and Dumber, Liar Liar and Lethal Weapon 2).
12th biggest Paramount Pictures film between Madagascar 3: Europe’s Most Wanted and Star Trek (close to Madagascar: Escape 2 Africa, Transformers, Monsters vs. Aliens and Mission Impossible: Rogue Nation) and 18th biggest inflation inflated between Mission Impossible: Rogue Nation and Mission: Impossible – Ghost Protocol.
Paramount have yet to confirm a release date for a third film but that would be likely in April 2024 release with the spinoff series Knuckles set to be released on Paramount+ in 2023.
- 3. The Lost City £1,204,261 – £7,406,098
Down 12.2% in its third weekend; 10th biggest 2022 film between Scream and Morbius and 35th biggest film since cinemas reopened between Scream and West Side Story.
62nd biggest Paramount Pictures film between Scream and GI Joe: Retaliation (close to SpongeBob Movie: Sponge out of Water, Tropic Thunder, G. I. Joe and Jackass Forever)
903rd biggest film in the UK between Battleship and 2 Fast 2 Furious (close to Gremlins 2: The New Batch, Angel Has Fallen, Never Say Never Again and A Fish Called Wanda) and 1,227th biggest inflation inflated between Green Lantern and Goosebumps 2: Haunted Halloween (close to Layer Cake, Angel Has Fallen, Bounty Hunter and The Matrix Resurrections).
The Lost City has been compared to action-adventure films like Romancing of the Stone and Tropic Thunder, which received positive reviews but some felt while there is great chemistry between Sandra Bullock and Channing Tatum with a fun cameo from Brad Pitt they seem to be having more fun than the audience as it’s let down by the script.
It’s Sandra Bullock’s first action-comedy since 2013’s The Heat dropped 44% in third weekend taking £534,279 #12 and £6,246,931 from 345 screens taking £6,825,860 and £7,860,715 inflation inflated; and first rom-comedy since 2009’s The Proposal dropped 49% £755,242 and £9,056,654 #5 from 441 screens taking £11,740,551 (£16,229,585 inflation inflated).
While Channing Tatum recently starred in Dog taking £3,228,094 and action-comedies 21 Jump Street in 2012 dropped 19% £962,537 #4 from 366 screens and £5,557,936 of £9,863,555 and 22 Jump Street dropped 32% #2 £1,530,775 from 485 screens and £12,744,566 of £18,322,998
Other similar films include
2008’s Tropic Thunder dropped 27% £987,191 #3 from 433 screens and £6,765,139 of £8,387,745 (£12,129,970 inflation inflated)
2021’s Jungle Cruise dropped 57% taking £847,031 #4 from 610 screens and £8,476,137 of £12,487,739
2021’s Free Guy dropped 29% taking £1,607,761 #1 from 655 screens and £10,597,750 of £16,866,112
While 1998’s Six Days Seven Nights took £4,535,477 (£8,463,223 inflation inflated); 2005’s Sahara £4,726,275 (£7,545,985 inflation inflated) and 2012’s Journey 2: The Mysterious Island £6,467,920.
Paramount Pictures has had a strong start to 2021 with Scream, Jackass Forever, Sonic the Hedgehog 2, The Lost City and Top Gun: Maverick opening at the end of the month. While the film received a very positive reaction at CinemaCon last week there is still a massive question on long gap sequels at who the target audience is has been the case with films like Ghostbusters Afterlife. The difference between The Force Awakens and Top Gun: Maverick is while it might feature the children of those that featured in the original film Top Gun: Maverick is very much a Tom Cruise film whereas The Force Awakens and Ghostbusters Afterlife were very much films about the next generation.
The problem is they lose all of the momenta they have gained this year having only two more films set for release this year Secret Headquarters and Tadeo Jones 3. The positive is in 2023 they had their strongest slate for more than a decade including Babylon directed by Damien Chazelle already generating strong buzz, Scream sequel, Transformers: Rise Of The Beasts, Mission Impossible 7 and a new Star Trek film.
Dropped 24.9% in its fourth weekend
The 5th biggest film of 2022 between Sonic the Hedgehog 2 and Belfast and the 11th biggest film since cinemas reopening between Black Widow and Venom 2.
308th biggest film in the UK between Mission: Impossible and 22 Jump Street (close to Angels and Demons, The Lego Movie: The Second Part, Jurassic Park 3 and Terminator 2: Judgement Day) (will be 275th film to take £20m+ next week) and 538th biggest inflation inflated between Jerry Maguire and Fantastic Four: Rise of the Silver Surfer (close to Snow White and the Huntsman, Gulliver’s Travels, Waterworld and Ant-Man and The Wasp).
Have a similar fourth weekend as
Little Women (£1,480,139); Downton Abbey (£1,461,074); Nanny McPhee (£1,313,524); Dune (£1,172,873); Interstellar (£1,157,875); Billy Elliot (£1,142,988); Free Guy (£956,248)
49th biggest Warner Bros film between The Lego Movie: The Second Part and Happy Feet (close to Batman Forever, The Hangover Part III, Tenet and Justice League) and 83rd the biggest inflation inflated Warner Bros film between Miss Congeniality and The Great Gatsby (close to Pokemon: The First Movie, Gremlins 2: The New Batch, Mad Max: Fury Road and Justice League).
Fourth weekends
2016’s Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them dropped 40% taking £2,734,960 from 620 screens and £42,392,249; Moana #2 £1,911,784 and Sully: Miracle on the Hudson #3 £1,222,683
After 4 weeks at #1 dropped to #3 in fifth weekend down 48% taking £1,416,433 from 480 screens and £44,963,803; Rogue One: A Star Wars Story opened #1 £17,305,011 and Moana #2 £1,424,527
Stayed in top 5 for 6 weeks and In top 10 for 9 weeks taking £568,432 in 9th weekend and £54,000,202 98.9% of £54,593,487
2018’s Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald dropped 46% in the fourth-weekend #4 taking £1,468,736 from 619 screens and £29,271,816; with Ralph Breaks the Internet #1; The Grinch #2 and Creed 2 #3
Stayed in the top 5 for 4 weeks and in the top 10 for 8 weeks taking £365,814 at the 9th weekend and £33,501,931 98.5% of £33,995,565
The Fantastic Beast films were never going to perform like Harry Potter films as they targeted an older audience and a major part of the attraction of the Harry Potter films was children had read the books and grown up with Daniel Radcliffe as Harry Potter. It was similar to how The Hobbit films were less successful than the original Lord of the Rings trilogy.
While it’s impossible to compare Fantastic Beasts BO with Harry Potter films it’s still interesting to see just how big Harry Potter films were and how they held so much stronger, and also have to note that ticket inflation for the first film is over 80% since.
The 11 Harry Potter films have taken over £550m at the UK BO and over £785m inflation inflated
- 5. The Bad Guys – £723,039 – £10,180,547
Down only 2% its 5th weekend;
7th biggest film of 2022 between Belfast and Death on the Nile (23rd biggest since cinemas reopened between Ghostbusters: Afterlife and The Addams Family 2).
27th biggest Dreamwork Animation film between Flushed Away and The Croods 2: A New Age (close to Turbo, Rise of the Guardians, Megamind and Bee Movie) (28th to take £10m+).
109th biggest animated film between Angry Birds and The Addams Family 2 (close to Pokemon: The First Movie, Smallfoot, The Addams Family 2 and Spider-Man: Into The Spider-Verse) and 126th biggest inflation inflated between Atlantis: The Lost Empire and The Addams Family 2 (close to Cars 3, Open Season, Planes and Sherlock Gnomes).
635th biggest film between Die Hard with a Vengeance and Ali G Indahouse (close to Matilda, School of Rock, Look Who’s Talking and Tron Legacy) and 938th inflation inflated between Get Out and Limitless (close to Into the Woods, America’s Sweethearts, The Other Guys and The Other Woman).
While comic-book movies and No Time To Die have received the plaudits from the industry since cinemas reopened their children’s films that have performed steadily over the last 75 weeks cinemas have been open. As recent research has shown by Movio smaller films play a key role in getting audiences back to cinemas and UKCA research showed that 60% of over 45s who saw No Time To Die 6 months ago haven’t returned to the cinema.
While under 10s have gone to the cinema many times over the last 18 months seeing children’s films of all sizes from going to see films like Onward and Trolls World Tour in cinemas when they first reopened after the first lockdown, to Two By Two: Overboard!, The Secret Garden, Home Alone and Elf (during October and November 2020 when the majority weren’t). To Peter Rabbit 2, Space Jam: A New Legacy, The Croods: A New Age and many smaller independent children’s films that opened after the first lockdown when studios weren’t releasing them.
All these films will pale into insignificance when Lightyear and Minions: The Rise of Gru when opening in June and July but their huge success will be thanks partly to all those smaller children’s films that came before over the weeks previous that kept children returning to cinemas regularly.
Other Box Office News
News of Netflix “lost” 200k subscribers last week was met with predictable schadenfreude from exhibitors days before CinemaCon but the global streaming video market will still be worth more than four times as much as global cinema within a few years. So the cinema industry can’t rest on its laurels as it has previously done needs to attract new audiences and get them returning for more.
So much nonsense has been written about Netflix over the last week despite their global annual revenue in 2021 was $29.7bn (40% more than global cinema BO in 2021), gross profit of $12.4bn operating profit of $6.2bn, it’s pot calling kettle black with exhibitors calling Netflix ‘beleaguered’.
Before this last quarter, Netflix had 10 years of steady growth while US BO might have increased steadily over the same time fewer people are going to the cinema now than they did 20 years ago while China is responsible for the majority of the global growth over the last decade. While the “growth” in the US and UK since 2002 has been ticket inflation with surcharges 3D, IMAX, PLF, ScreenX, 4DX, premium seating all have to increase the real average price to up to 50% more than the industry average, as industry average is $9.17/£7.52 while EntTelligence average price for tentpoles is $13.77.
Exhibitors at CinemaCon have said they are willing to show Netflix films but they would need to be shown on their terms having a theatrical window of several weeks before being released on streaming, but studios should be able to decide how they want their films to be released, if they want an exclusive theatrical run or if they want a simultaneous day and date opening theatrical and streaming as the audience for cinema is very different to streaming despite both audiences seeing regularly of both. The Batman had a successful 45-day theatrical window but then had a strong launch on HBO Max last week while it was still playing in cinemas.
Paramount Pictures screened Top Gun Maverick last week at CinemaCon that received widespread praise from the predictable audience but the problem with it is (as all legacy sequels) while it’s the perfect dad summer movie will their kids want to see it too as will want to see Doctor Strange 2 again or The Bob’s Burgers Movie while Top Gun Maverick is competing against the 45+-year-olds who are also seeing Downton Abbey 2. While Immediate reactions at premieres and CinemaCon mean very little, especially with a film like Top Gun Maverick and exhibitors would be turkeys voting for Christmas if they weren’t gushing praise over the footage they see. But very often a few months later when the public sees the same footage reaction isn’t as positive. In 2014 Disney was promoting Million Dollar Arm saying it tested better than Harry Potter, the audience reaction was very positive, but six weeks later it failed to find an audience.
Within all the gushing praise for Top Gun Maverick also say the plot is predictable as it’s the same as the original, similar to Star Wars The Force Awakens and Jurassic World, but they were centred on a younger cast while Top Gun 2 is probably more a Tom Cruise movie than the original? While all of them were memberberries
Do have to ask why it took over 30 years for the sequel to be made as in 1986 the original film was their fourth-biggest film ever and Grease, Raiders of the Lost Ark and Beverly Hills Cop all had sequels made within a few years. Tom Cruise made Days of Thunder in 1990 which many felt at the time was Top Gun 2 as was also directed by Tony Scott and produced by Don Simpson and Jerry Bruckheimer about a young man with father issues. In Top Gun Maverick’s dad was killed in action while in the sequel Goose’s son Rooster has similar issues after Goose died in the film
After the screening at CinemaCon Jerry Bruckheimer was celebrating its success, but surely success for Top Gun Maverick is after opening with $150m+ and $300m+ worldwide taking $1bn+ worldwide not after exhibitor reactions, most of whom are 45+ and many probably saw original film in the cinema, the key audience is those half their ages if they agree with their parents.
I’m a huge Tom Cruise fan having seen most of his films from Top Gun to Mission Impossible: Fallout in cinemas, am one of a few who even liked Rock of Ages, while watched Minority Report in Italian at Pinewood Studios about a dozen times in 2002 when I worked for 20th Century Fox and met him with his then-wife Nicole Kidman when I screened To Die For in 1995 for them at Rank Preview Theatre.
UK box office in detail
This weekend’s top 10 box office took £9,173,308 up 19.8% from last weekend’s £7,659,588
644th biggest top 10 of the last 20 years close to 28 August 2009 #1 The Final Destination £3,633,395 (39.59% of top 10) and 31 October 2003 #1 Finding Nemo £3,393,575 (37.04% of top 10) and 864th biggest inflation inflated over last 20 years close to 23 September 2011 #1 Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy £2,104,762 (28.32% of top 10) and 26 August 2016 #1 Finding Dory £1,510,744 (16.72% of top 10)
The weekend admissions were 1,219,855 up 19.8% from last week 1,018,562
Top 3 took £5,626,167 61.3% of the top 10; Downton Abbey: A New Era 33.5% (£3,072,762); Sonic the Hedgehog 2 14.7% (£1,349,144); The Lost City 13.1% (£1,204,261);
2021 n/a cinemas closed
2020 n/a cinemas closed
Down 80.4% from 2019; (£46,742,473); Avengers: Endgame 92.8% (£43,400,000); Eighth Grade (£144,923); #1 Avengers: Endgame £43,400,000 1st week 679 screens (92.8% of top 10)
Down 72.8% from 2018: (£33,778,278); Avengers: Infinity War (£29,379,496); Cendrillon Met Opera 2018 (£212,367); Beast (£166,295); Bing at the Cinema (£65,535); #1 Avengers: Infinity War £29,379,496 1st week 650 screens (86.9% of top 10)
Down 51.1% from 2017: (£18,771,674); Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 (£13,092,657); The Promise (£178,388); Lady Macbeth (£174,989); Mad Max: Fury Road – Black & Chrome Edition (£39,399); Lowriders (£6,543); #1 Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 £13,092,657 1st week 632 screens (69.7% of top 10)
Down 59.5% from 2016: (£22,632,665): Captain America: Civil War (£14,466,681); Demolition (£264,512); Son of Saul (£178,617); Elektra – Met Opera 2016 (£174,559); Ratchet and Clank (£147,848); #1 Captain America: Civil War £14,466,681 605 screens (63.9% of top 10)
Down 38.8% from 2015; (£14,986,028); Far From The Madding Crowd (£1,450,297); Unfriended (£1,346,952); Two By Two (£566,871); Monsters: Dark Continent (£34,820); #1 Avengers: The Age Of Ultron £8,591,670 589 screens 2nd week 57.32% 53% drop
Up 30.1% from 2014: (£7,048,138); Pompeii (£1,165,551); Tarzan (£808,174); Plastic (£154,441); Brick Mansions (£137,153); #1 The Amazing Spider-Man 2 £1,984,667 3rd week 41% drop 513 screens (28.% of top 10)
Down 47.4% from 2013: (£17,443,495); Iron Man 3 (£13,711,048); The Look of Love (£208,557); Bernie (£32,935); #1 Iron Man 3 £13,711,048 1st week 555 screens (78.6% of top 10)
Down 55.3% from 2012 (£20,513,565); Marvel Avengers Assemble (£15,778,074); Albert Nobbs (£106,552); Damsels in Distress (£44,765); African Cats (£41,392); #1 Marvel Avengers Assemble £15,778,074 1st week 521 screens (76.9% of top 10)
Down 25.2% from 2011 (£12,271,421); Thor (£5,449,300); Insidious (£1,441,292); Cedar Rapids (£146,062); #1 Thor £5,449,300 1st week 500 screens (44.4% of top 10)
Down 28.6% from 2010: (£12,841,846); Iron Man 2 (£7,664,732); The Last Song (£679,698); The Disappearance of Alice Creed (£142,324); Gentlemen Broncos (£1,125); #1 Iron Man 2 £7,664,732 1st week 521 screens (69.6% of top 10)
Down 29% from 2009; (£12,914,013); X-Men Origins: Wolverine (£6,658,979); The Hannah Montana Movie (£2,030,657); The Ghosts of Girlfriends Past (£976,780); Is Anybody There? (£123,309); #1 X-Men Origins: Wolverine £6,658,979 1st week 488 screens (51.5% of top 10)
Down 6.7% from 2008; (£9,840,435); Iron Man (£5,465,103); Nim’s Island (£820,218); Made of Honour (£749,611); #1 Iron Man Sarah Marshall £5,465,103 1st week 500 screens (55.5% of top 10)
Up 111.7% from 2007: (£4,332,041); Next (£795,012); The Painted Veil (£261,130); This Is England (£207,676); Reno 911!: Miami (£137,648); #1 Next £795,012) 1st week 357 screens (18.3% of top 10)
Up 77.8% from 2006; (£5,158,448); 16 Blocks (£778,839); Slither (£488,446); #1 Ice Age II £1,100,736 4th week 42% drop 485 screens (21.3% of top 10)
Up 23.2% from 2005 (£7,444,415); The Hitchhiker’s Guide to the Galaxy (3,298,262); XXX2: The Next Level (£920,506); #1 The Hitchhiker’s Guide to the Galaxy £3,298,262 1st week 465 screens (44.3% of top 10)
Up 58% from 2004 (£5,804,618); Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind (£1,045,501); Secret Window (£759,162); Our House (£146,061); #1 Kill Bill – Volume 2 £1,456,152 2nd week 47% drop 409 screens (25.1% of top 10)
Down 18% from 2003 (£11,186,072); X-Men 2 (£7,037,861); The Heart of Me (£52,466); Half Past Dead (£45,708); Heartlands (£26,493); #1 X-Men 2 £7,037,861 1st week 449 screens (62.9% of top 10)
Up 4.8% from 2002 (£8,748,862); About A Boy (£3,747,966); Roadkill (£784,853); John Q (£306,517); #1 About A Boy £3,747,966 1st week 446 screens (42.8% of top 10)
Next weekend 2020 and 2021 – Cinemas Closed First Lockdown
Next weekend in 2019 (£17,607,835); Long Shot (£856,333); The Curse of La Llorona (£609,745); Tolkien (£554,835); #1 Avengers: Endgame £14,331,192 67% drop 2nd week 677 screens (81.4% of top 10)
US Box Office
- The Bad Guys – Universal Pictures
Dropped 32% in the second weekend taking $16.23m and $44.58m
189th biggest animated film between Smurfs: The Lost Village and The Fox and the Hound (had overtaken last year’s PAW Patrol: The Movie).
38th biggest Dreamworks Animation film between The Road to El Dorado and Sinbad: Legend of the Seven Seas and likely to take about $75m+ similar to Penguins of Madagascar, Turbo and Captain Underpants, all at the time of their releases were seen as disappointments. Showing again that since cinemas reopened industry has lowered expectations of BO despite these films having higher production and marketing costs than those older releases.
This was the similar to the case with Scream, Jackass Forever, Uncharted, The Lost City and Sonic the Hedgehog 2, industry seems to believe it’s a sign of audiences returning and they open far stronger than expected but the industry has lowered expectations on what these films should open with, as they all open similar to previous instalments, or for The Lost City similar to 38-year-old Romancing the Stone.
Similar DWA second weekends include
2014’s Penguins of Madagascar dropped 57.1% (Post-Thanksgiving) $10.9m and $49.39m taking $83.35m and $366.94m worldwide which saw seen as disappointing, similar to 2013’s Turbo dropped 35.5% $13.74m and $56.18m taking $83.02m and 2012’s Rise of the Guardians (Post-Thanksgiving) dropped 43.7% $13.38m and $48.83m taking $108.41m; 2017’s Captain Underpants dropped 48.9% $12.18m and $44.44m taking $73.92m
The Bad Guys is Dreamworks Animation’s 42nd film since 1998 and the first original animated film since 2019’s Abominable (opened $20.6m taking $61.27m and $180.73m worldwide) and 2017’s Captain Underpants: The First Epic Movie (opened $23.85m taking $73.92m and $125.42m.
The 42 Dreamworks Animation films have taken over $5.83bn in the US and almost $15.8bn worldwide
Dreamworks Animation had huge success with Shrek, Madagascar and How to Train Your Dragon and Kung Fu Panda has been overshadowed by Illumination Entertainment over the last decade has far bigger success with Despicable Me films. While DWA’s recent hits The Croods, Trolls and The Boss Baby sequels BO was affected opening during COVID.
Took $9m internationally from 62 territories and $75.13m and $118.7m worldwide; took $52.47m internationally ahead of US opening; 174th biggest animated film worldwide between The Addams Family 2 and Soul; 1,460th biggest film worldwide between Spy Kids 2: The Island of Lost Dreams and Surrogates and 188th biggest Universal Pictures film worldwide between Intolerable Cruelty and Charlie Wilson’s War.
- Fantastic Beasts: The Secrets of Dumbledore – Warner Bros
Dropped 41% in the third weekend taking $8.3m and $79.56m
1,031st biggest film between Hannah Montana: The Movie and The Day the Earth Stood Still; 1,774th between Radio and The Best Man Holidays;171st biggest Warner Bros film between Dark Shadows and City of Angels.
Third weekends
2018’s Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald dropped #4 61.3% $11.36m and $134.5m of $159.55m; $495.3m internationally 75.6% and $645.85m worldwide;
2016’s Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them dropped #2 59.8% $18.11m and $183.08m of $234.03m; $580m internationally 71.3% and $814.04m worldwide;
The previous two films opened the week before Thanksgiving so held stronger in second weekends, so the third film not having a similar safety net was always going to drop far more especially after opening a third less and with three wide new releases. This again asks the question why if the previous two films opened well pre-Thanksgiving why open the third film in April?
Took $25.8m from 73 territories $251.63m total and $3331.2m worldwide; Japan $26.7m; Germany $25.7m; UK $23.7m; China $21.4m; France $16.9m; IMAX took $14.3m internationally and $22m WW.
448th biggest film worldwide between Black Swan and 300: Rise of an Empire; 80th biggest Warner Bros film worldwide between Batman Forever and 300: Rise of an Empire.
- Sonic The Hedgehog 2 – Paramount Pictures
Dropped 26% in its fourth weekend taking $11.53m and $161.11m
344th biggest film between Straight Outta Compton and Die Another Day (close to Sing 2, Shark Tale, No Time to Die and A Quiet Place: Part II); 715th inflation inflated between Never Say Never Again and Taken 2); 43rd biggest Paramount Pictures film between The SpongeBob Movie: Sponge Out of Water and A Quiet Place: Part II (close to Kung Fu Panda 2, Crocodile Dundee, The Firm and Fatal Attraction).
4th weekend
2020’s Sonic The Hedgehog #4 dropped 52.8% taking $7.7m and $140.52m of $148.97m (COVID affected) taking $319.71m worldwide
Paramount has had a strong start of the year with Scream, Jackass Forever, The Lost City and Sonic The Hedgehog 2 with Top Gun Maverick opening at the end of the month. Top Gun sequel received a very positive reaction when it was screened at CinemaCon last week but they are the teens who saw the original in the cinema 36 years ago it needs to play as well to their children
Dropped 48% in the second weekend taking $6.36m and $22.86m
Robert Eggers previously directed 2016’s The Witch dropped 42.4% opened #7 at $5.06m and $16.67m taking $25.13m and $40.32m worldwide and 2019’s The Lighthouse up 608% at #8 at $3.02m and $3.61m from 586 screens expanded into third weekends taking $10.86m and $18.17m worldwide.
Similar recent second weekend include
2001’s The Green Knight dropped 61.8% #6 with $2.59m and $12.16m taking $17.17m and $18.9m worldwide
2021’s The Last Duel dropped 56.6% #7 with $2.06m and $8.53m $10.85m and $30.55m WW
2007’s 300 dropped 53.6% #1 with $32.87m and $129.16m taking $210.61m and $456.06m WW
2011’s The Eagle dropped 58% #9 $3.64m and $15.15m taking $19.49m and $37.98m WW
2014’s 300: Rise of an Empire dropped 57.4$% #2 $19.2m and $78.4m taking $106.58m and $337.58m WW
2000’s Gladiator dropped 29.2% #1 $24.64m and $73.66m taking $187.7m and $460.58m WW
2005’s Kingdom of Heaven dropped 51% #4 $9.62m and $35.09m taking $47.39m and $218.12m worldwide
1999’s The 13th Warrior dropped 35.7% #3 with $6.6m and $20.5m taking $32.69m and $61.69m worldwide
Took $4.5m from 45 territories internationally and $18.8m total and $41.6m worldwide
- The Lost City – Paramount Pictures
Dropped 12% in its sixth weekend taking $3.81m and $90.7m
The Lost City continues to perform similar to 1984’s Romancing the Stone taking $4m ($12.4m inflation inflated) and $40.2m ($125m) taking $76.57m ($240m) and 1998’s Six Days Seven Nights $2.1m ($4.5m inflation inflated) and $67.54m ($150m) taking $90.5m ($260m).
Industry predictably heralded the opening of The Lost City as they did earlier In the year with Scream and Jackass Forever despite both performing similar to films released 20 years ago.
855th biggest film between Save the Last Dance and Ride Along 2; 1,551st biggest inflation inflated between The Fisher King and The Spiderwick Chronicles; 115th biggest Paramount Pictures film between Save the Last Dance and Flashdance.
The industry has seemly lowered expectations on what success is with films this year, as Scream and Jackass Forever were seen as successful despite both taking less than films released 20 years ago while The Lost City was being compared with Sandra Bullock films their sixth weekend in 2013’s The Heat dropped 33.1% taking $4.62m and $149.46m and 2009’s The Proposal dropped 23% taking $6.37m and $140.04m taking $163.95m.
The industry also says box office is back to normal, if it is normal it’s a new normal that sees the divide between comic-book movies Vs everything else becoming wider and films like The Lost City which should have longer legs struggling to maintain that momentum past opening weekend.
Similar films sixth weekends
2008’s Tropic Thunder dropped 38.9% $2.55 and $106.8m taking $110.51m and $195.7m worldwide
1999’s The Mummy dropped 26.1% taking $5.48m ($14m inflation inflated) and $136.2m ($255m) taking $155.38m ($290m)
2005’s Sahara dropped 47.3% $1.8m and $64.36m taking $50.56m ($80m inflation inflated)
2008’s Fool’s Gold dropped 39.3% by $1.68m and $65.35m taking $70.23m and $111.23m worldwide
2012’s Journey 2: The Mysterious Island dropped 33.9% by $2.38m and $94.9m taking $103.88m and $335.29m worldwide
2021’s Jungle Cruise dropped 19.9% by $4m and $105.7m taking $116.98m and $220.88m worldwide
Took $10.5m from 61 territories $58.1m total and $149m worldwide; 1,205th biggest film worldwide between House of Gucci and Lion; 138th biggest Paramount Pictures film worldwide between No Strings Attached and Blades of Glory.
UK Box Office Top 10
UK Box Office Preview
Doctor Strange In The Multiverse Of Madness follows on from the events of Spider-Man No Way Home with a teaser trailer attached to the end of the film (could see the film return into the top 10 in its 21st week on release with fans wanting to see it again before Doctor Strange 2), so it will be impossible to compare the film with the first Doctor Strange film (opened in October 2016 with £9,288,898 (including £3,796,170 previews) taking £23,158,549 as the sequel will likely open closer to double and take almost double becoming the 8th MCU film to take £40m+.
Opening Thursday is likely to take between £2m-£3m (15%-20% of opening) with a large percentage from IMAX/PLF screens (BFI IMAX has sold out a couple of shows with prices of £27.50 IMAX and £29 for 3D IMAX, they have increased from £22 for Morbius) as fans rush out to avoid spoilers and being part of the Multiverse there will surely be many spoilers of Marvel characters having different personalities similar to Spider-Man No Way Home which featured three different Spider-Men from three different universes. While this is great for fans it can be exhausting for others to have to do homework before seeing it to understand it which was the issue many had with the Star Wars films so it’s likely to be front-loaded as the previous Doctor Strange was and the Thor films.
MCU films normal open with about 7.5%-9% of US opening and its currently looking at a $140m-$160m opening but Disney normally lowball estimates buy up to about $20m so more likely looking at upwards of $180m (having already taken over $60m in bookings mostly for Thursday night while No Way Home had $120m) would be about £15m UK opening. (looking at opening with $300m+ worldwide (No Way Home opened with $582m and The Batman $251m). Rotten Tomatoes score is currently 79% Vs 93% for No Way Home but reviews have little impact.
AMC Theatres revealed in March that tickets for The Batman had a $1.50 surcharge, this had been an open secret for many years as in the UK Odeon Cinemas brought in £1 blockbuster tax with Interstellar in 2014 which was doubled to £2 for Spectre. Dynamic pricing has been a regular occurrence with films ever since, so no surprise tickets have a similar surcharge for Doctor Strange 2 but the industry still claims the average is $9.18/£7.52 despite most people paying closer to double especially when they see films in IMAX/PLF.
The 27 MCU films have taken over £910m and over £970m inflation inflated; Doctor Strange in the Multiverse, Thor: Love and Thunder and Black Panther: Wakanda Forever will see the 30 MCU films taking over £1bn at the UK BO since 2008.
While Disney released three MCU films last year (Blade Widow, Shang-Chi and Eternals) they were always likely to perform similar to Ant-Man and the Wasp (£4,988,747) rather than other MCU films opened before lockdown (Thor: Ragnorok, Black Panther and Captain Marvel).
Doctor Strange In The Multiverse Of Madness will have the third biggest opening since cinemas reopened after Spider-Man No Way Home (£31,899,232 including £12,388,380 previews) and No Time To Die (£25,916,476 including £4,887,004 previews). Likely to have the 17th biggest opening close to Avengers Age of Ultron (£18,015,774 including £3,599,937 previews) and Black Panther (£17,700,000 including £7,190,000 previews).
While in the US it will have the second biggest opening after Spider-Man No Way Home ($260.13m) having an opening between Captain America: Civil War ($179.13m) and Black Panther ($202m) having the 10th biggest opening.
Doctor Strange 2 predictably topped Fandango’s 2nd annual Moviegoing Trends & Insights Study with Thor: Love and Thunder #2, Jurassic World Dominion #3, Top Gun: Maverick #4, Minions: The Rise of Gru #5, Lightyear 6, Elvis #7, Nope #8, Bullet Train #9 and Downton Abbey: A New Era #10. While they said 83% would see three or more films this summer, so they will be Doctor Strange 2, Thor 3 and one other.
Doctor Strange opens in 751 IMAX cinemas in 69 territories including 46 in the UK, the film will be shown in IMAX and 3D IMAX with a £1.50 surcharge for 3D, screening with it is the first trailer for Avatar: The Way of Water in 3D. It’s 13 years since Avatar wowed audiences, can the possibly be anywhere nearly as successful. The first film will be re-released in cinemas in September before the first sequel opens in December. In 2009 audiences hadn’t seen anything like it before and the film helped revitalise the 3D format, but exhibitors and studios killed the format by adding surcharges for it, charging for glasses and retrofitting films into 3D that almost looked the same without the glasses.
As with other tentpoles and comic-book movies about 20% of Doctor Strange 2 BO will come from PLF/IMAX screens with about 10% from 45 IMAX screens.
Normally when a film like Doctor Strange 2 opens it cannibalizes the rest of the BO taking upwards of 80% of weekend BO but with the second weekend of Downton Abbey: A New Era targetting a very different demographic it should have a decent second weekend, that said older audiences might not be keen to go to busy cinemas over the weekend and opt to see it midweek. While Sonic the Hedgehog 2 and The Bad Guys should continue to attract younger audiences.
Despite not having any competition for three weeks until Top Gun: Maverick and Bob’s Burgers Doctor Strange 2 will likely be very front-loaded and in the US likely to join the $100m loser club in its second weekend.
Normally when a major Disney film opens in the UK the weather is cold and wet but the weekend could see the hottest temperatures of the year which are often used as an excuse for softbox office but when you have a film the size of Doctor Strange 2 with its huge fanbase many of whom are desperate to see it an opening weekend that is just an excuse.
Opening next week
- Firestarter- Universal Pictures
Sci-Fi horror from Blumhouse Productions starring Zac Efron, Ryan Kiera Armstrong, Sydney Lemmon, Kurtwood Smith and John Beasley and directed by Keith Thomas, based on a novel by Stephen King and a remake of the 1984 film.
These teen horrors struggle to find an audience in the UK as while they are PG-13s in the US are given 15s in the UK so much of their target audience can’t legally see them, why do they do far better in the US than in the UK, but for me, as someone that doesn’t do horror they are enjoyable as the Scream and I Know What You Did Last Summer films were.
Blumhouse teen horrors repeat the same formula of 90s horrors including Scream and I Know What You Did Last Summer featuring popular TV actors, the difference was they were R rated/18 in the UK, while Blumhouse horrors are targetting a younger audience.
Previous Blumhouse Productions teen horrors
2021’s Freaky opened with £344,918 taking £685,870
2017’s Happy Death Day opened with £998,388 taking £2,678,427
2018’s Truth or Dare opened with £931,250 taking £2,400,490
2019’s Happy Death Day 2U opened with £735,454 including £266,079 from previews) taking £1,318,935
2014’s Ouija opened with £1,373,907 taking £3,207,638
2016’s Ouija: Origin of Evil opened with £779,626 taking £2,524,013
2015’s Krampus opened with £412,713 taking £1,184,159
- Father Stu- Sony Pictures
Biographical drama starring Mark Wahlberg, Jacki Weaver and Mel Gibson and written and directed by Rosalind Ross.
Opened in the US just before Easter receiving mixed reviews opening with $5.4m taking $14.2m. The film will have little interest in the UK struggling to find an audience and have a short stay in cinemas.
- Everything Everywhere All At Once -A24
Sci-Fi action-comedy starring Michelle Yeoh, Stephanie Hsu, Ke Huy Quan, Jenny Slate, Harry Shum Jr., with James Hong and Jamie Lee Curtis and written and directed by Dan Kwan and Daniel Scheinert.
The film premiered at SXSW receiving critical acclaim and opened on platform release on March 25th with $501,305 from 10 screens before expanding two weeks later into 1,250 screens taking $27m.
The film will have exclusive preview screenings in IMAX cinemas on May 4th as Doctor Strange 2 opening the day after will stop it playing on IMAX screens opening the day after.
cigarette burns and missed changeovers 