UK/US Box Office November 24th – 26th 2017 Week 48

Top 5 Breakdown

1. Daddy’s Home 2 – £4,919,051 – NE

Opening was inflated due to previews last weekend taking £1.56m and opening on Wednesday (taking £500,000 from Wednesday/Thursday) giving Daddy’s Home 2 a seven-day opening weekend;

Took £2.74m (56%) of its opening weekend box office Fri-Sun removing the £2.15m taken from previous it would have charted in third highlighting how extended previous artificially inflate films opening weekends but will see Daddy’s Home 2 likely suffer from a 60%+ second-weekend drop as most films do that have extended previews. If Daddy’s Home 2 drops similar to A Bad Moms Christmas its second weekend of £1.6m-£1.8m would be expected but as it had dropped to third place behind Justice League and Paddington 2 on Monday it looks likely to drop heavier in its second weekend. 

Daddy’s Home opened, Boxing Day 2015 taking £1,628,219 (second weekend of Star Wars: The Force Awakens which took £10.16m) impossible to compare Daddy’s Home 2 opening as had a seven-day opening weekend compared with three but its most direct comparison is it took £1.56m from Sat/Sun previews which was close to Daddy’s Home opening. Likewise, on its second weekend, it took £2,908,358 up 79% taking £8.142,525 of its £17.2m total.

Critical reaction for Daddy’s Home 2 was much poorer than original taking 17% compared to 31% of the original so would assume would drop heavier than the original but as A Bad Moms Christmas was similarly received poorer than Bad Moms held surprisingly well-taking £6.75m after four weeks.

With limited competition for Daddy’s Home 2 over the next three weeks apart from Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle (surprisingly getting positive buzz after all the negativity surrounding it being announced so soon after Robin Williams death and the terrible trailers) having weekend preview screenings in two weeks’ time it could also hold better than many expected but still unlikely to match the success of the first film. Daddy’s Home 2 is currently Paramount Pictures fourth biggest film of the year and will overtake Ghost in the Shell, Baywatch, and Transformers: The Last Knight to become their biggest film of the year.

Paramount have currently 10 films set for release in 2018 while they have a couple of more interesting films than this year with Downsizing, Annihilation and A Quiet Place they will be depending heavily on Tom Cruise to save them again with Mission Impossible 6 which opens against Mamma Mia Here We Go Again, the Transformers spin-off Bumblebee and Cloverfield 3 God Particle also have Overlord released at the end of the year which sounds like it could be Cloverfield 4.

While the first Cloverfield film was a surprise released in 2008 last year’s 10 Cloverfield Lane underwhelmed probably because it became a Cloverfield film in the editing room as God Particle has become which was originally going to be a similar plot to Life which was the reason Paramount let go of the project allowing Sony Pictures to acquire it. Life underwhelmed at the box office more due to poor dating as it was originally set for May release but then was brought forward to March after 20^th Century Fox brought forward Alien: Covenant from August which I believe created a chain-reaction of events seeing rival studios shift many of their films which saw August become a waste-land. 

As the US Paramount will be the lowest performing studio in 2017 and thanks to the performance of La La Land for Lionsgate and Paddington 2 for Studiocanal will be down to eighth biggest distributor of the year could have been lower had it not been for eOne’s equally disappointing 2017. eOne start 2018 with Steven Spielberg’s The Post has been described as his best film since Munich and Meryl Streep’s best performance in years being compared to Holly Hunter’s in Broadcast News (incredibly released 30 years ago next month while the technology has changed it is still a classic film about TV news); will receive her 21^st Oscar nomination for her performance last winning in 2011 for The Iron Lady. Bridge of Spies, Lincoln, War Horse, and Munich all were nominated for Best Film at the Oscars but his last win was 20 years ago for Saving Private Ryan. Likewise Tom Hanks won Best Actor two years running in 1994 and 1995 for Philadelphia and Forrest Gump but has surprisingly only been nominated once since for Castaway.

Many took offence to Mel Gibson on the Graham Norton Show on Friday as well as his interview for The Guardian asked about Weinstein scandal he said “Things got shaken up a little bit, and there is a lot of light being thrown into places where there were shadows and that is kind of healthy. It’s painful, but I think pain is a precursor to change.” This from a man who was convicted of wife beating and is a racist, anti-Semite, Holocaust denier, and misogynistic and 10 years ago many said he would never work in Hollywood ever again. 

While Harvey Weinstein is currently being expelled from America Academy and other organisations the fact that these similar organisations didn’t do similar to Mel Gibson 10 years ago and many years earlier for Roman Polanski shows what hypocrites they are. in 2003 America Academy gave Roman Polanski a standing ovation after winning Best Director but he isn’t there to collect as he would have been arrested as he was convicted of rape 30 years earlier.

In January American Academy welcomed him back with Oscar nominations and then rumored that he was going to direct Suicide Squad 2 before signing up to star in Daddy’s Home 2 and now there are rumors again that he will return in Lethal Weapon 5.

2. Paddington 2 – £4,545,218 – £22,990,836

Down 31.2% in its third weekend would have returned to #1 without the extensive previews of Daddy’s Home 2 but will likely return to #1 next weekend and stay #1 until Star Wars: The Last Jedi opens in three weeks.

Paddington 2 is performing similarly to last years Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them, in its third weekend it took £4.49m had direct competition from Disney’s Moana opening with £2.21m.  In Fantastic Beasts fourth weekend it took £2.73m down 40% and Paddington 2 will likely drop similarly. One advantage it has over Fantastic Beasts is that doesn’t have any family film competition but the big question is will Wonder attract family audiences.

Paddington 2 is now the fifteenth biggest film of 2017 and will likely climb into the top 10 by next weekend overtaking The Lego Batman Movie, The Boss Baby and Sing to be the second biggest family film of the year.

According to the BBFC insight report for Paddington 2 ‘bottoms’ and ‘oh my God’ are seen as mild bad language? Really these words are bad language in 2017? In 2014 BBFC rated Paddington a PG because it had “dangerous behavior, mild threat, mild sex references, and mild bad language”, “mild sex references” was later changed to “innuendo” and the mild bad language was because someone mumbled saying the word bloody

With four weeks to Christmas if Paddington 2 continues to hold as it is currently doing will overtake Despicable Me 3 £47.56m and go on to take £50m+.

After three weeks Paddington had only taken £14,306,197 38% of its final box office of £37,842,948. If Paddington 2 was to do similar it could take over £60m which would see Paddington 2 become the third biggest film of 2017 behind Star Wars: The Last Jedi and Beauty and the Beast.  

For Paddington 2 first two weekends were 63% more than Paddington but in its third weekend has dropped down slightly to 56% (total is now 60% ahead) is likely due to Frozen. As Paddington 2 hasn’t any competition until Ferdinand opens in three weeks’ time is likely to continue as strongly over the next few weeks. Paddington dropped 24% in its fourth weekend £2,909,674 and Paddington 2 will likely be getting close to its box office with about £3,450,000.

3. Justice League – £2,990,473 – £12,917,287

Down 58.8% in its second weekend; its second-weekend drop was better than both Batman Vs Superman: Dawn of Justice and Suicide Squad but more than both Man of Steel and Wonder Woman but had the lowest second weekend of all five DC Extended Universe films; Despite all the negativity surrounding Justice League it surprisingly climbed back to #1 on Monday.   

Comparing Justice League second weekends to Marvel Cinematic Universe it had the tenth worse with only Thor: The Dark World, Captain America: Winter Soldier, Ant-Man, Iron Man, Thor, The Incredible Hulk and Captain America: The First Avenger have worst second weekends; Avengers: Age of Ultron £8.59m, Avengers Assemble £8.12m, and Captain America: Civil War £4.8m.

Justice League took £9.92m in its opening week which is slightly more than Wonder Woman which took £9.36m and Blade Runner 2049 £9.1m both with an extra day but both held stronger;

Justice League second weekend box office and 10-day box office are similar to War for the Planet of the Apes £2.71m and £12.66m (went on to take £20.58m) and Pirates of the Caribbean: Salazar’s Revenge £2.73m and £13.03m (went on to take £19.53m) so a £20m final box office is likely which will be similar to Wonder Woman but a third less than Batman Vs Superman: Dawn of Justice, Suicide Squad and Man of Steel.

Surprisingly Justice League 58.8% second-weekend drop was only the 96 biggest second-weekend drop of the year highlighting how extended weekend has made all films much more front-loaded and while Justice League might have been poorly received critically its second-weekend drop wasn’t nearly as bad as many were expecting. That said of course Justice League is a massive disappointment both critically and at the box office.

Last week a petition started by fans wanting to see Zac Snyder’s cut of the film and over 90,000 people have signed up. Warner Bros screened Zac Snyder’s cut to test audiences and it was reported his cut exists with mostly finished VFX and score by Junkie XL.

Much has been written about the making of Justice League after the poor reception to Batman Vs Superman: Dawn of Justice last year Warner Bros should have done what Disney do with troubled projects shut it down and start again. As have done previously with many Pixar films and most recently firing the directors Phil Lord and Chris Miller from the Han Solo film and bringing in Ron Howard to reshoot most of the film again. Lucasfilm did similar to last year’s Rogue One and this year fired Colin Trevorrow from Star Wars IX and replaced him with J.J. Abrams.

Instead Warner Bros tried to remake the film in the editing room as they also tried to do last year with Suicide Squad (poorly) but successfully with Wonder Woman. After the critical and box office success of Wonder Woman reshot about 20% of the film which meant the film was tonally all over the place making it hard to combine the Zack Snyder original footage with Joss Whedon reshoots.

4. Murder on the Orient Express – £1,373,756 – £20,442,641      

Down 39.7% in its fourth weekend; Murder on the Orient Express is currently the nineteenth biggest film in the UK in 2017 and will shortly overtake War for the Planet of the Apes to become 20th Century Fox’s fourth biggest film of the year. By next weekend it will have overtaken Wonder Woman and Fifty Shades Darker to get close to possibly overtaking Logan.

Murder on the Orient Express is holding stronger than last years The Girl on the Train which took£1,215,472 in its fourth weekend and £20,427,279 (went on to take £23,372,415) while also close to the fourth weekend of 2014’s Gone Girl which took £1,597,962 in its fourth weekend and £17,064,765 went on to take £21,945,199.

Looking at the current top 30 biggest films of 2017 most of films most would have predicted at the start of the year would be in that list, but there is more than half a dozen that has surprised. If 2017 will see admissions increase for the first time it will be thanks to the performance of these other films rather than the expected blockbusters including Dunkirk, It, La La Land, Logan, Murder on the Orient Express, The Emoji Movie, Baby Driver and Split.

5. Frozen – £1,115,689 – NE

Fantastic performance from four-year-old Frozen screened with the short second Frozen short Olaf’s Frozen Adventure from early matinees on Saturday/Sunday.

Even more impressive as tickets were a third less than average ticket prices for adults and children £2.49 which saw over 440,000 Frozen fans watch the film unlike about 100,000 had cinemas charged regular prices. I’m sure as parents were only paying £2.49 to see the Frozen they were happier to buy their children the popcorn and other treats they wouldn’t have been so happy to pay for had tickets been full price.

Wonder if the lower price was a decision made by exhibitors or forced on to them by Disney as exhibitors would be more expecting of Disney’s demands if it was with Star Wars: The Last Jedi opening in three weeks’ time which is expected to take about £100m at the UK box office down about 20% from The Force Awakens in 2015.

Frozen/Olaf’s Frozen Adventure ran for 2h 9mins in length which is a long time for young children as I have mentioned previously do think having an intermission during these family films would be beneficial for both parents and cinemas. Children can take a break without disturbing other cinemagoers while filling up on snacks for the other half of the film. 

Also released  

Battle of the Sexes – 20th Century Fox – £452,871 from 467 screens includes £94,000 from previews; it was the biggest opening for directors Jonathan Dayton and Valerie Faris ahead of 2012’s Ruby Sparks £299,382 taking £630,088 and Little Miss Sunshine opened September 2006 with £391,415 taking £2,777,576

Despite disappointing in the US when it opened in September Battle of the Sexes opened with a strong marketing campaign and awareness with an extensive talker screening program that included Everyman Cinemas rebranded themselves as Everywoman holding paid preview screenings on November 9^th;

The Star – Sony Pictures – opened £203,000 from 430 screens; a faith-based animation film was always going to be a tough sell in the UK made much harder with the continued strong performance of Paddington 2 and the strong performance of Frozen over the weekend.

Suburbicon – eOne – £230,994 from 364 screens; after flopping in the US last month after receiving mixed reviews was always likely to do similar in the UK;

Suburbicon was George Clooney’s lowest opening in the UK as a director 2014’s The Monuments Men opened £1,612,336 taking £6,042,739. 2011’s The Ides of March opening with £665,387 in October 2011 taking £2,777,102; 2008’s Leatherheads £474,780 taking £933,067; 2005’s Good Night, and Good Luck £405,200 taking £2,088,488; 2002’s Confessions of a Dangerous Mind £356,623 taking £1,038,201.

UK box office in detail

This weekend’s top 10 box office took £17,119,618 down 8.64% from last weekend £18,740,071

The weekend admissions 2,548,321 up 3.61% from last weekend 2,459,327 (average price £7.62 by UK Cinema Association/BFI for 2017).

2017 is currently 4% up from last year as ticket inflation from last year is about 4% and in October Cineworld recently announced ticket prices increased 5%;

With Star Wars: The Last Jedi expected to take about £40m more than Rogue One last year box office for 2017 will likely be up from last year and admissions close to 2015; after the highest admissions ever in March/April 2017 should be much more ahead of recent years than it currently is with admissions unlikely to see an increase from 2002 as many were expecting 9 months ago.

Daddy’s Home 2 took 28.7% of the top 10; 16 films opened at weekend taking £7,478,908; Daddy’s Home 2 65.7% (£4,919,051); Frozen 14.9% (£1,115,689); Battle of the Sexes 7.3% (£552,521); remaining 13 films shared 11.9% (£891,647);

The weekend was up 19.2% from last year (£14,354,042): Allied £1,331,919, Bad Santa 2 £799,156, A United Kingdom £618,652, Almost Christmas £60,991

Up 16.1% from 2015: (£14,738,989): The Good Dinosaur £2,926,448, Bridge of Spies £1,682,392, Black Mass £1,272,249, Carol £540,632

Next weekend in 2016: (£11,160,568) Moana £2,214,898, Sully: Miracle on the Hudson £1,786,844, The Edge of Seventeen £273,139, Bleed for This £250,975

 

UK Box Office Top 10

 

US Box Office Top 10

US Box office

Disney – Coco – opened with $50.8m taking $72.9m for the five-day weekend; the first Pixar film since Up to receive A+ CinemaScore and sixth Pixar film to receive A+ score.

Coco is the fourth biggest 3-day/5-day Thanksgiving opening behind Frozen $67.39m Toy Story 2 $57.38m and Moana £56.63m; Disney has the top nine openings with 2008’s Four Christmases the only non-Disney film in the top 10; next year Disney release Ralph Breaks the Internet: Wreck-It Ralph 2 and then in 2019 Frozen 2 by which time they will have the top 10 biggest Thanksgiving openings.

Rival studios have given up trying to compete opening a family film against Disney, but Warner Bros do release Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald (many took to Twitter in anger that Johnny Depp returns in the sequel) the weekend before next year as they opened the first Fantastic Beasts in 2016.

While has been much love for Coco from critics and audiences the same can’t be said for the 21-minute Frozen short Olaf’s Frozen Adventure shown before it which has been overly negative. Pixar started showing a Pixar created a short film in 1998 with their second film A Bug’s Life. 

Many shorts including Geri’s Game was shown with A Bug’s Life won the Best animated short at the Oscar and most of the others were nominated. So was surprising instead attached was the second spin-off short from Frozen cynically attached to sell more Frozen merchandise in the run-up to Christmas. Disney screened their previous Frozen short, Frozen Fever with their Cinderella reimagination last year and confirmed this year that Frozen 2 will be released in November 2019; Olaf’s Frozen Adventure was originally planned as a holiday TV special.

In Mexico they stopped showing the short before Coco while in the UK it was shown over the weekend with Frozen; Coco is released in January in the UK so it’s unlikely the short will be shown with the film.

The teaser trailer for Coco was released in March and attached to Beauty and the Beast and the first trailer attached to Cars 3 in June this is the normal release pattern for Disney’s Thanksgiving release and will be repeated next year with the first teaser of Ralph Breaks the Internet: Wreck-It Ralph 2 attached to A Wrinkle in Time and the trailer attached to The Incredibles 2 in June.

Likewise attached to Coco was the first teaser for The Incredibles 2 which was the most viewed animated movie trailer debut of all-time seen 113m times in its first 24 hours the seventh most watched trailer ever.

Warner Bros – Justice League – dropped 56% in its second weekend taking $41.09m       and $17.90m total  

After receiving poor reviews and having a disappointing opening many expect Justice League to have a second-weekend drop closer to Batman Vs Superman: Dawn of Justice 69.1% or Suicide Squad 67.4% taking around $32m which could see it only manage to take a little over $200m. Thanks to Thanksgiving Weekend Justice League held slightly better than expected but this coming weekend will see it drop heavily as all other films normally do the weekend after Thanksgiving.  

One of the crazier stories surrounding Justice League was over Henry Cavill’s mustache which he grew for Mission impossible 6 and Warner Bros offered Paramount to CGI the mustache back, but they refused which meant they had to remove his mustache by CGI.

Justice League took $72.2m the weekend international taking $309.8m and $481.3m globally from 67 territories; Justice League will likely take about $650m globally which is about $150m less than it needed to make a profit. While Warner Bros has had many big budget flops this year King Arthur, Blade Runner 2049, Geostorm and Justice League thanks to Wonder Woman, It and Dunkirk they will still take over $2bn at the US box office.

Warner Bros is currently #1 having taken $1.964bn but Disney will become #1 in two weeks time when Star Wars: The Last Jedi opens; it is currently tracking to open with $200m about 20% less than The Force Awakens and will likely take $790m in the US and $1.6bn worldwide 

Lionsgate – Wonder – dropped only 17.7% in its second weekend taking $22.67m and $69.80m total;

Disney – Thor: Ragnarok – dropped 22.2% in its fourth weekend taking $16.83m and $277.65m total; 

In an interview for this month’s Vanity Fair, Marvel’s Kevin Feige Says Avengers 4 will be a finale for the current MCU but have another 20 movies in development and have over 7,000 characters in the Marvel universe. So, just like Disney promised cinemagoers infinite Star Wars films every year forever more they will be joined by several Marvel films each year.

Thor: Ragnarok took $11m internationally over the weekend with a total of $512.6m and global box office of $790.1m become the seventh biggest Marvel Cinematic Universe globally.  

Paramount Pictures – Daddy’s Home 2 dropped 8.4% in its third weekend taking $13.21m and $72.63m;

Hard to compare its third-weekend box office with Daddy’s Home as it took $15.01m taking $116.32m (37.5% less) but this was during the lucrative Christmas holidays; if Daddy’s Home continues to hold as it is will end with $93m.

Highlighting how poor Paramount Pictures 2017 box office has been Daddy’s Home 2 has overtaken Baywatch to be their second biggest film of the year behind Transformers: The Last Knight;

Paramount Pictures has taken $487.3m from their 10 releases of 2017 still $141m away from their 2004 box office which is the current lowest ever total in their 105-year history. It’s highly unlikely Downsizing their final film of the year will take over the $100m needed to avoid 2017 becoming their world year at the US box office in their history. 

20th Century Fox – Murder on the Orient Express dropped 4.6% in its third weekend taking $13.17m and $74.36m; will shortly overtake the final box office of last years The Girl on the Train which took $75.39m; internationally has taken $17.2m and $122.6m globally.

STX – A Bad Moms Christmas – drops 30.1% in its fourth weekend taking $5.01m and $59.75m; After four weeks Bad Moms had taken $85.67m; added $4m international with an internally total of $92.8m

On limited release

Focus Features – Lady Bird – added 553 screens up 60.6% taking $4,041,733 from 791 screens total $10.7m but dropped out of the top 10; Lady Bird has become the all-time best reviewed film on Rotten Tomatoes with 164 positive reviews one more than Toy Story 2.

Fox Searchlight – Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri added 561 screens up 299.5% taking $4.4m from 614 screens taking $7.61m;

Sony Pictures – Roman J. Israel, Esq. added 1,665 screens up 7,072% taking $4.89m and $6.2m total; but receiving only 53% Rotten Tomatoes score compared with 93% for Fences last year which expanded with $6,688,10 from 2,233 screens Roman J. Israel, Esq is unlikely to stay in the top 10 for long.

Sony Classics – Call Me by Your Name opened with $412,932 from 4 screens having the best screen average of a platform release this year.

Focus Features – Darkest Hour opened with $175,006 from 4 screens

Opened December 1^st

Opening UK

• Wonder – Lionsgate

Drama starring Julia Roberts, Owen Wilson, and Jacob Tremblay and directed by Stephen Chbosky; Lionsgate UK held a very extensive program of preview screenings of Wonder on Monday 13th November World Kindness Day to build word of mouth which has been very positive.

There is a careful balance when it comes to talker screenings as for a film like Wonder a Lionsgate want to build up awareness and audience reaction to the film has been very positive but sometimes distributors over screen films as has happened with many films in the past. But after the reaction Wonder has received in the US should help its UK performance along with being the only major release until Star Wars: The Last Jedi opens in two weeks’ time and in the gloom and doom of the shorter days and colder nights a feel-good inspiration film is just what the doctor orders.

It’s been seven years since Julia Roberts starred in ensemble comedy Valentine’s Day b, ut must go back almost 16 years to American Sweetheart since her last hit of her own despite starring in many massive 90s films. While Owen Wilson needs to go back to 2008 for Marley & Me and Wonder is as much a tearjerker as that was.

Wonder opening and second-weekend hold was compared with inspirational 2009’sThe Blind Side opened £1,313,317 in March 2010 and went on to take £5,933,635; being about American Football it was a hard sell in the UK not helped with Sandra Bullock dropping out of the UK premiere.

Other inspirational family films include 1998’s Patch Adams (opened £786,778 taking £2,231,028), The Pursuit of Happyness (opened £2,527,181 taking £9,586,481), Pay It Forward (opened £357,185 taking £633,123), Life of Pi (opened £3,591,458 taking £27,308,038) and this year Lion opened with £1.26m taking £11.76m and Hidden Figures opened with £1.44m taking £6.13m.

Opening in the US

• The Shape of Water – Fox Searchlight

Fantasy drama starring Sally Hawkins, Michael Shannon, Richard Jenkins, Doug Jones, Michael Stuhlbarg and Octavia Spencer and directed by Guillermo del Toro; received its world premiere at Venice International Film Festival awarded the Golden Lion for best film in the competition; was also screened at Toronto International Film Festival; critical reaction was very positive (currently 98% Rotten Tomatoes score) many calling it the directors best film since Pan’s Labyrinth; opens on limited release on December 1^st before going wide the following weekend.

Since directing Pan’s Labyrinth in 2006 (opened on limited release $568,641 from 17 screens in December 2006 taking $37,634,615) Guillermo del Toro directed Hellboy II: The Golden Army, Pacific Rim and Crimson Peak that had mixed success at the box office (Hellboy and Pacific Rim have sequels currently in production).

• The Disaster Artist – A24

Biographical comedy-drama starring James and Dave Franco, Seth Rogen, Alison Brie, Ari Graynor, Josh Hutcherson and Jacki Weaver and produced and directed by James Franco.

A work-in-progress cut had its world premiere at South by Southwest on March and the completed film premiered at Toronto International Film Festival and San Sebastián International Film Festival winning its top prize, the Golden Shell; received positive reviews from critics (currently 95% Rotten Tomatoes score) with James Franco performance receiving much praise; opens on limited release on December 1st before going wide the following weekend;

• Wonder Wheel – Amazon

Crime drama starring Kate Winslet, Jim Belushi, Juno Temple and Justin Timberlake and written and directed by Woody Allen; closed New York Film Festival on October 14 has received mixed reviews currently 50% Rotten Tomatoes score

While Netflix has limited interest in theatrical release for the films acquire exhibitors have liked Amazon Studios as still believing in releasing films theatrically before being released, and released their films via studio partner. This all changes with Wonder Wheel as will be the first film, they will self-distribute.