UK/US Weekend Box Office December 16th – 18th 2016 and Box Office UK/US preview

Top 5 Breakdown

1. Rogue One – A Star Wars Story £17,300,011 – NE

 2D – £8,629,008 (50.5%) – with previews £11,166,834 (65.3%) (TFA 54.1%)

3D – £2,874,285 (16.8%)– with previews £3,852,987 (22.5%) (TFA 35.9%)

IMAX /3D £1,333,973 (7.8%)– with previews £1,828,130 (10.7%)– (TFA 9.7%)

70MM IMAX (3 locations) £148,530 (0.8%)– with previews £227,099 (1.3%)

Rogue One IMAX 12% opening is up from 9.9% for The Forcer Awakens almost doubling 6.69% Spectre opened in IMAX. But showing the continued drop of 3D Rogue One had 13.4% 3D box office than The Force Awakens with exhibitors now switching 3D into their smaller screens and sharing 2D/3D performances in screens.

Rogue One has the biggest opening of 2016; only because of its four-day opening against Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them had a 3-day weekend.

Rogue One had the fourth biggest opening for a Fri-Sun (£13.21m) of 2016 behind Fantastic Beasts £15.33m), Batman v Superman £14.62m and Captain America: Civil War £14.47m. If they included their Monday box office all three would have opened bigger than Rogue One comparing 4-day openings; took £4.09m on Friday 58% less than The Force Awakens £9.68m.

Last year Star Wars: The force Awakens dropped 70.1% in its second weekend last year Christmas Day was on Friday this year on Sunday so Rogue One’s second weekend will be 2 days with most cinemas closed on Christmas Day Odeon have selected cinemas open including Leicester Square

Currently sold 40+ seats for the 3.30pm show and 60+ seats for 7.30pm. The Force Awakens took 7 days to take £50m compared to 11 for Spectre w

A year ago, a month after Spectre broke the record for biggest ever UK opening £41.21m (7 day opening weekend) Star Wars: The Force Awakens opened taking £33.9m over its opening 4 day opening weekend beating the previous 4-day record set in June 2015 by Jurassic World £19,289,562 and 2011’s Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallow Part 2’s 3 day opening £23.75m. Going into the weekend many were predicting an opening similar to Jurassic World but in reality, its opening was more similar to 3D less Furious 7 £12.73m 3 day and £15.5m 4-day with the 3D surcharges taken away Rogue One would have had a similar opening.

The Force Awakens took £87.05m in its opening 2 weeks 70% of its final box office of £123m its opening weekend took 27.5% of its box office. If Rogue One was to perform like The Force Awakens will have taken £42.36m after 14 days going on to take £60.52m. Fantastic Beasts in comparison had taken £32.93m after 2 weeks 68% approx. of its £48m+ final box office (currently £44.8m)  

After a similar massive marketing campaign while Rogue One was never expected to open anywhere as big as The Force Awakens it was expected still to have the biggest opening of the year by far. After generating strong buzz from its world premiere last Saturday and positive reviews Rogue One with its four-day opening expected to come close to Jurassic World. But similar to Fantastic Beasts a month ago, while its opening is the second biggest of the film series admissions tell a completely different story.

Rogue One will, of course, become the eleventh film this year to take over £30m at the box office this year (The BFG, Suicide Squad, The Secret Life of Pets, Batman Vs Superman: Dawn of Justice, Captain America: Civil War and Deadpool) and the fifth to take over £40m alongside Bridget Jones’s Baby, The Jungle Book, Finding Dory and Fantastic Beasts. But Rogue One and Fantastic Beasts were expected to take well beyond £50m which Fantastic Beasts will come short while Rogue One if it holds similar to Star Wars: The Force Awakens 3.62x opening would just break the £50m barrier.

	UK Release	O WE	Av P		2016 d	Total BO
A New Hope	27 Dec 1977	n/a	£0.86	n/a	+800%	£17.14	20,760,000
Empire Strikes Back	21May 1980	n/a	£1.41	n/a	+448.9%	n/a	n/a
Return of the Jedi	2 June 1983	n/a	£1.89	n/a	+309.3%	n/a	n/a
The Phantom Menace	18 July 1999	£9.51	£4.15	2,291,567	+86.5%	£50.74	12,226,507
Attack of the Clones	19 May 2002	£11.38	£4.29	2,652,681	+80.4%	£37.23	8,678,322
Revenge of the Sith	22 May 2005	£14.36	£4.71	3,048,833	+64.3%	£39.18	8,318,472
The Force Awakens	17 Dec 2015	£33.90	£7.21	4,701,804	+7.3%	£123m	17,059,631
Rogue One	17 Dec 2016	£17.01	£7.74	2,206,078		£50m*	6,459,949

Using UK Cinema Association average ticket prices have estimated 2016 average ticket price as £7.74 which is a similar 7.3% increase to their claimed price of 2015. While Rogue One had the second biggest opening of a Star Wars film in the UK it had the lowest admissions. Its box office was +78.86% more than 1999’s The Phantom Menace but was an 86.5% increase in ticket prices. This is of course, the average industry ticket price I paid £10.50 to see Rogue One on Friday at local Everyman Cinema in 2D (to see it in 3D have cost £13) is probably closer to the average most paid; while Odeon and Cineworld in Leicester Square along with the BFI IMAX prices were, double I paid.

If the £10.50 average price was used would have dropped admissions to 1,626,195. Likewise, if the £10.50 price was used for The Force Awakens last year opening admissions would have been 3,228,572 and total 11,714,286 which is less than 1999’s The Phantom Menace until the industry stops hiding behind ticket prices and the real cost of going to the cinema box office comparisons are meaningless.

With Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them and Rogue One likely to take less than half the combined box office of Spectre and Star Wars: The Force Awakens everything is far from awesome as 2016 will be the 14^th year in a row admissions have been flat. UK Box office has been up over those years but this is purely on ticket price increases.

Last year with The Force Awakens was much excitement over the strength of the advance sales of tickets with news the day before opening over 1 million tickets had been sold. For Rogue One advance booking opened a month later than The Force Awakens but there was no news about their sales in the UK in the US was reported the ticketing website Fandango crashed and it was the highest selling film of the year.

Going into Rogue One opening week the question was always going to be how will it perform as it is far more a film for fans than as what Star Wars originally was created to be a film for families, as the original trilogy and The Phantom Menace are but Attack of the Clones and Revenge of the Sith became darker toned The Force Awakens had elements but Rogue One is not for younglings. While this is what the fans wanted, it did make Rogue One less accessible to non-fans which were the reason for The Force Awakens success.

As with The Force Awakens last year, many of the scenes used in Rogue One marketing and trailers didn’t end up in the final film asking if Disney miss-sold the film to its audience? As trailers are created possibly a year before release many months before the film is complete there will always be a chance of scenes in the trailers or marketing missing from the final cut.

With The Force Awakens and Rogue One are many scenes and dialogue not in the final film as some of this is from the August trailer which was released after the reshoots which asks the question why were they purposely included to be red-herrings to avoid showing to much actual footage? But trailers for films like Star Wars can be and should be clip light as always thought with the Star Wars prequels all that was needed was Fox fanfare Star Wars logo coming X and audiences would still likely be as happy but there seems the need to reveal more and more footage for films unnecessarily. 

As expected immediate reaction after the premiere was hugely positive but cracks started to appear two days later when Rogue One didn’t get the universally positive reviews The Force Awakens received. As with The Force Awakens Rogue One is filled with nostalgic memberries scenes, objects and characters (I won’t say which in case the one person who reads my blog hasn’t seen it yet) which brought fans to tears watching it; But as The Force Awakens was a remake of A New Hope, Rogue One feels like a remake of Return of the Jedi without Ewoks having the two-pronged attacks on the planet and above the planet.

Actors making Star Wars VIII have described it as similar to Empire Strikes Back asking the question if you’re going to make more Star Wars films make them original films rather than playing to memberries. George Lucas was heavily criticised for Star Wars prequels but at least they expanded the story rather than making audience feel as they are so often nowadays with sequels, reboots, remakes, re-imaginations, legacy sequels and comic-book movies being the same plot retold slightly differently but with The Force Awakens it felt like the shot by shot 1998 remake of Psycho.

When The Force Awakens opened last December critics believed the hype as did audiences but week after they see it for what it is a poor imitation of A New Hope you only have to try to watch The Force Awakens on Sky Movies against the original trilogy and you see it as it really is a fan movie remake. Which is probably why many being extra critical about Rogue One which is a far better movie even with the clunky performances and dialogue.

One of the most controversial aspects of Rogue One was the return from the dead of Peter Cushing his character Grand Moff Wilhuff Tarkin had a pivotal role in A New Hope and his absence in Rogue One would have been odd. Tarkin was in command of the Death Star and would then, of course, have a prominent role with the events that featured in Rogue One but of course, everyone knows Peter Cushing died in 1994 and you can’t bring people back to life, can you?

But Hollywood has brought back actors to life before most famously recently Paul Walker in 2015 in Furious 7, in 2000 in Gladiator when Oliver Reed died in the middle of production and in 1994’s The Crow after Brandon Lee died. While in Ant-Man, Captain America: Civil War and Westworld Michael Douglas, Robert Downey Jr and Anthony Hopkins were all made to look younger using digital cosmetics. (does ask the question why Disney aren’t doing similar with their Han Solo Anthology Star Wars film as there is only one Han Solo and that’s Harrison Ford, audiences will likely find it hard to see Alden Ehrenreich playing him in the film.

In a strange twist of fate, Rogue One had an opening similar to Furious 7 in US $147m and UK £15.5m 4 day weekend its 3-day weekend was £12.55m which wasn’t released in 3D.

The ending of Rogue One sets up the start of A New Hope with the cameo and the Darth Vader scene who knows that the Death Star plans were given to Tantive IV crew which Princess Leia was aboard but in A New Hope he asks the crew where are the plans you intercepted.

In A New Hope Han, Luke and Obi Wan are in the Millennium Falcon when they spot a Tie Fighter going towards a moon could it have been one that escaped the battle of Scarif which must have happened the same day?

Part of the Death Star interior was shot at Canary Warf station the Stormtroopers visited the tube station last week on the way to their own private screening.

Many box office experts have said Rogue One’s opening shows Disney have been able to copy what they did with Marvel but this isn’t true for two reasons; 1) Disney only got into the comic-book business after Marvel’s Cinematic Universe was already successful (Iron Man, Iron Man 2, Thor, Captain America: The First Avenger). 2) Opening weekend of Rogue One was the Star Wars fans and to quote Field of Dreams “If you build it they will come” Disney could have released anything with the Star Wars tag attached the fans would of see it opening weekend.

Marvel has yet to prove themselves after Doctor Strange and Ant-Man didn’t match the success of Guardians of the Galaxy while Captain America: Civil War was a massive hit it was more to do with it being Avengers 2.5 as it performed far like an Avengers film. For all the criticism Warner Bros and DC have had their Extended Universe three movies have performed similarly at the box office Man of Steel $668m, Suicide Squad $745m and Batman Vs Superman: Dawn of Justice $873.3m. Next year Marvel has three Guardians of the Galaxy Vol 2, Spider-Man: Homecoming and Thor: Ragarok (like CACW has other Avengers included) while Warner/DC have Wonder Woman (who was the best thing about Batman Vs Superman) and Justice League.

With Rogue One taking $290.5m globally Disney crossed $7 billion in ticket sales for worldwide box office for 2016 beating the industry record set last year by Universal Pictures of $6.9m. Disney has released the four top-grossing films of 2016 Marvel’s Captain America: Civil War $1.15bn, Pixar’s Finding Dory $1.03bn, Disney Animation’s Zootopia $1.02bn) and The Jungle Book $967 million. Disney released 12 films in the US didn’t have it all their own way with Alice Through the Looking Glass, The BFG, Pete’s Dragon, Queen of Katwe and The Finest Hours underwhelming at the box office.

If Rogue One holds like Star Wars: The Force Awakens it could take $1.13bn worldwide (what will be interesting to see is how Rogue One does in Asia with the casting of Donnie Yen and Jiang Wen as Asia was the only part of the globe The Force Awakens underwhelmed at the box office).

Disney has 8 films set for release in 2017 Beauty and the Beast reimagination which is rumoured to be as gorgeous and as amazing as their animated classic. The trailers released this year were two of the most viewed of the year. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 after the massive success of the first film much is expected from sequel their other Marvel film Thor: Ragnarok will be like Captain America: Civil War including Marvel characters (Spider-Man: Homecoming is also released but released by Sony). Cars 3 and Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Men Tell No Tales are the two unknowns. Disney ending the year with original animation Coco and the eagerly awaited Star Wars: Episode VIII.

2. Moana – £1,424,527 – £6,835,836

2D took £1,378,909 (97.9%) – total £6,219,598 (91.2%)

3D took £29,050 (2.1%) – total £599,631 (8.2%)

Down 25.8% in its third weekend with Christmas holidays; hard to compare Moana third weekend with Frozen as its third weekend (had taken £3.9m over its third weekend and £16.14m total) was the start of the Christmas holidays which start this year a week later.

There were 32 films released in 3D in 2016 Moana was one only 11 that was shot in 3D but its 3D performance shows the continued death of 3D especially with family films. It’s seven years ago, this month since the release of Avatar which was a massive success in 3D and over the following years many films was released in 3D with studios and exhibitors seeing it to artificially inflate box office.

Over the first few years, cinemagoers enjoyed the 3D experience but then when they realized many films were being retrofitted in 3D purely for the surcharges audiences stopping seeing them. Bar a few exceptions in recent years Hugo, Gravity, and The Martian cinemagoers now see 3D as a rip-off even Rogue One 3D opening weekend was 13% down from The Force Awakens last year.

Moana is performing similar to The Good Dinosaur last year dropping a similar 25.1% in its third weekend taking £1.27m and £6.74m total going on to take £14.81m adding £3.5m over the Christmas holidays having Snoopy and Charlie Brown: The Peanuts Movie as competition.

Moana only has Ballerina as competition which will be targeting younger children and is likely to have a lucrative two weeks of Christmas holidays could see it tripling its box office overtaking the likes of The Angry Birds Movie and Kung Fu Panda 3. If Moana was to do similar to last years, The Good Dinosaur would add £7.18m (120%) to current box office but Moana should do slightly more.

		3 WE	3 WE T	% of T	Total
Kung Fu Panda 3	11th Mar 2016	£1.19m	£8.96m	64.1%	£13.99m
Zootropolis	25th Mar 2016	£2.36m	£18.60m	78.8%	£23.61m
The Angry Birds Movie	13th May 2016	£919,519	£5.77m	55.9%	£10.31m
The Secret Life of Pets	24th June 2016	£3.62m	£22.26m	62.1%	£35.82m
Ice Age: Collusion Course	15th July 2016	£188,057	£6.06m	86.2%	£7.03m
Finding Dory	29th July 2016	£2.56m	£27.31m	63.8%	£42.75m
Storks	14th Oct 2016	£622,261	£5.23m	79.4%	£6.58m
Trolls	21st Oct 2016	£1.99m	£17.29m	96.4%*	£23.1m*

3. Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them – £1,416,433 – £44,863,803

2D took £1,375,725 (97.1%)– total £34,040,696 (75.8%)

3D rook £25,771 (1.8%)– total £7,959,292 (17.7%)

Down 48.1% in its fifth weekend becoming the third biggest film of the year behind Bridget Jones’s Baby £47.8m and The Jungle Book £46.2m.

Over the Christmas holidays, Fantastic Beasts will become the biggest film of the year overtaking Harry Potter and the Prisoner of Azkaban and Harry Potter and the Goblet of Fire along the way.

But a five weeks ago, after receiving massive marketing campaign Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them opened with £15.33m while having the biggest opening of the year had the second biggest opening for a Harry Potter film the film it beat was Harry Potter and the Goblet of Fire which opened 11 years ago, when average cinema tickets were over 80% cheaper and wasn’t released in 3D. 

HP and the Philosopher’s Stone	16 Nov 2001	£2.39m	£46.99m	71.0%	£66.1m	-4.4%
HP and the Chamber of Secrets	15 Nov 2002	£1.80m	£43.71m	79.7%	£54.8m	+2.6%
HP and the Prisoner of Azkaban	31 May 2004	£1.21m	£41.94m	90.9%	£46.1m	+7.1%
HP and the Goblet of Fire	18 Nov 2005	£1.02m	£42.31m	86.8%	£48.7m	+6.1%
HP and the Order of the Phoenix	12 July 2007	£1.06m	£44.13m	76.1%	£58m	+1.7%
HP and the Half-Blood Prince	17 July 2009	£0.93m	£46.76m	92.2%	£50.7m	-4.1%
HP and the Deathly Hallows P1	19 Nov 2010	£0.87m	£44.44m	85.1%	£52.2m	+0.8%
HP and the Deathly Hallows P2	15 July 2011	£1.73m	£66.51m	90.9%	£73.1m	-32%
Fantastic Beasts	18 Nov 2016	£1.40m	£44.87m	90%*	£48.9*

Comparing Fantastic Beasts fifth weekend with previous Harry Potter films had the fourth biggest weekend which shows how film box office has changed over the 15 years since the first Harry Potter was released. As in 2001 Philosopher’s Stone added 29% of its box office after week five but Deathly Hallows Part 2 added only 9.1% of its box office after week 5 and Fantastic Beasts is likely to do similar ending with about £48.9m.

Fantastic Beasts is ahead of the box office for most of the Harry Potter films but -32% for Deathly Hallows Part 2 shows how far off it really is to other films. This can be seen better-comparing admissions after 5 weeks with their average ticket price of their years.

HP and the Philosopher’s Stone	16 Nov 2001	£46.99	11,350,242	£4.14	£66.1m	15,966,183
HP and the Chamber of Secrets	15 Nov 2002	£43.71	10,188,112	£4.29	£54.8m	12,773,893
HP and the Prisoner of Azkaban	31 May 2004	£41.94	9,340,757	£4.49	£46.1m	10,267,261
HP and the Goblet of Fire	18 Nov 2005	£42.31	8,893,149	£4.71	£48.7m	10,339,703
HP and the Order of the Phoenix	12 July 2007	£44.13	8,738,614	£5.05	£58m	11,485,148
HP and the Half-Blood Prince	15 July 2009	£46.76	8,695,583	£5.44	£50.7m	9,319,853
HP and the Deathly Hallows P1	19 Nov 2010	£44.44	7,468,908	£5.95	£52.2m	8,773,109
HP and the Deathly Hallows P2	15 July 2011	£65.51	10,810,231	£6.06	£73.1m	12,062,707
Fantastic Beasts and.	18 Nov 2016	£44.87	5,797,158	£7.74	48.99m	6,329,458

While underwhelming in the US Fantastic Beasts has taken over $500m internationally and $707m worldwide which should see it overtake Harry Potter and the Prisoner of Azkaban as the lowest-grossing Harry Potter film globally. But impossible to compare Fantastic Beasts with previous Harry potter films as it is to compare Rogue One with The Force Awakens.

4. Sully: Miracle on the Hudson – £615,228 – £5,703,984

2D took £604,803 (98.3%) – total £4,438,313 (77.8%)

IMAX £3,718 (1.7%) – total £258,944 (22.2%)

Down 49.7% has overtaken 2008’s Invictus £4.5m, 1992’s Unforgiven £4.68m and 2008’s Changeling £4.7m and 2004’s Million Dollar Baby £5.15m to become Clint Eastwood’s third biggest film in the UK. But unlikely to get close to his second biggest film 2008’s Grand Torino which took £8.14m. 

Sully won’t match Tom Hanks last two major releases Inferno which took £8.13m but of course, a massive disappointment compared to the other Dan Brown films but its failure had nothing to do with Tom Hanks.

Ahead of last year’s Bridge of Spies total box office £5,428,199 after three weeks but weekend box office was down taking £782,029. With so many films released over the coming weeks is likely to drop down the charts and unlikely to match the success of Bridge of Spies £7.79m last year.

5. Office Christmas Party – £543,060 – £2,336,846

Dropping 54.9% in its second weekend was expected after receiving mixed reviews and poor word of mouth. Performing close like Jon Lucas The Change-Up which dropped 48% in its second weekend taking £378,226 and £1.63m and 21 and Over which dropped 25% in its second weekend £580,981 and £1.9m.

Will have competition next week with the arrival of comedy Why Him?

Blades of Glory dropped in comparison 28% in its second weekend taking £740,872 and £3.01m

Last year’s Sisters dropped 88% in its second weekend taking £142,839 and £1.85m and The Night Before dropped 42% its second weekend taking £157,328 and £624,279.

Other box office news

—-

 This weekend’s top 10 box office took £21,680,622; up 156.1% from last weekend £8,465,385;

weekend admissions 2,653,920 up 158.3% from last weekend 1,027,257

The weekend was down 43.5% from same weekend last year (£38,395,028) Star Wars: The Force Awakens £33,903,560, Sisters £1,214,635 opened.

Same weekend opening in 2014:  Night at the Museum 3 opened with £1,900,000, Dumb and Dumber To £1,800,000.

Next weekend in 2015: Snoopy and Charlie Brown £3,636,162, Daddy’s Home £1,616,469, In The Heart of the Sea £668,377 opened.

 A recent survey said average ticket price was £8.24 (the same cost as 13 pints of cider) up from Cinema Exhibitors Association average ticket price of £7.21 for 2015 a 7.3% increase from 2014. 

Complete UK Box office top 10 – December 16^th – 18^th 2016 

US Box Office

1. Disney – Star Wars: Rogue One – opened with $155.1m; receiving an A CinemaScore; its opening was 37.4% less than the opening of The Force Awakens after holding slightly better than expected Sat-Sun. But the big question will be how it holds in its second weekend as the audience breakdown was male-heavy for Friday night 66% male with 60% over 25 but the difference was Force Awakens scored highly with females, under 25, under 18 and 35-49 Rogue One needs to attract this female and youngling audience if it’s not going to perform like Furious 7 which it currently is doing. With Sing opening next week likely to open strongly and despite its mixed reviews, the fan-base for both Jennifer Lawrence and Chris Pratt is strong which could push the audience away from Rogue One and could see Sing replace Rogue One after only one weekend.

		US OP	AV T	OP ADs	Total BO	T As
SW: A New Hope	25 May 1977	$2.48m	$2.23	1.11m	$307.2m	137.8m
SW: The Empire Strikes Back	21 May 1980	$7.24m	$2.69	2.69m	$209.3m	77.8m
SW: Return of the Jedi	25 May 1983	$23.01m	$3.15	7.31m	$252.5m	80.1m
SW; The Phantom Menace	19 May 1999	$105.6m	$5.08	20.79m	$431.1m	84.9m
SW: Attack of the Clones	16 May 2002	$110.1m	$5.81	18.96m	$302.1m	52.1m
SW: Revenge of the Sith	19 May 2005	$158.4m	$6.41	24.72m	$380.2m	84.8m
SW: The Force Awakens	18 Dec 2015	$247.9m	$8.43	29.41m	$936.6m	111.1m
SW: Rogue One	16 Dec 2016	$155.0m	$8.61	18.1m	$585.6m*	68.01m*

Always hard to see how film compare with box office as while Rogue One had the third biggest opening for a Star Wars film in the US admissions tell a completely different story. While Rogue One was above the original trilogy the way films were released and the way audiences watched the films was completely different to how it’s done now. Rogue One would need to take $447m to match admissions of the lowest Star Wars Attack of the Clones.

If Rogue One was to hold similar to The Force Awakens taking 3.77x opening will take $585.6m but it’s unlikely to hold as well likely to drop similar to comic-book movies or Furious 7 with a Christmas bonus about 3.1x opening with similar final box office as Finding Dory.

The Force Awakens had taken 69% of its final box office in its first 14 days $651.9m of $936.6m; Rogue One, if it was to do similar would take $407.5m.

2. Disney – Moana – drops 31.7% – $12.7m – $162.9m; currently 12% down from Frozen but will face tough competition on December 21^st with Sing opening

3. Paramount– Office Christmas Party – drops 49.2% – $8.5m – $31.6m;

4. Warner Bros – Collateral Beauty – opens with $7.1m; receiving A- CinemaScore but poor reviews gave it Will Smith’s worst ever wide release in the US.

5. Warner Bros – Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them – drops 51.3% -$5.1m – $207.7m;

Harry Potter and the Sorcerer’s Stone	$239.6m	75.4%	-16.8%	$317.5m
Harry Potter and the Chamber of Secrets	$213.9m	81.6%	-6.8%	$261.9m
Harry Potter and the Prisoner of Azkaban	$211.5m	84.7%	-5.7%	$249.5m
Harry Potter and the Goblet of Fire	$244.1m	84.1%	-18.3%	$290.1m
Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix	$261.1m	89.3%	-23.6%	$292.1m
Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince	$273.8m	90.6%	-27.2%	$301.9m
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 1	$257.6m	87.2%	-22.6%	$295.3m
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2	$343.1m	90.1%	-41.9%	$381.1m

6. Roadshow Attractions – Manchester by the Sea – up 33.8% (adding 842 screens) – $4.2m -$14.1m.

7. Lionsgate – La La Land – up 365.6% (adding 195 screens) $4.1m – $5.3m; building on its slow expansion after receiving 7 Golden Globe Nominations last week. After receiving rave reviews for months, it needs slow expansion to build its audience rather than so many other films recently which performed strongly on limited but then expanded far too quickly.

With Golden Globes in three weeks’ time and Oscar nominations announced in 5 weeks’ time, is no need to rush its expansion especially with so many other award contenders also opening limited and expanding at the same time. La La Land has been one of the favorites for Oscars so it’s currently in La La Land’s hands and just let its rivals blink first. 

While La La Land is a lovely film it is one of those many Oscar contenders that are over hyped while Emma Stone and Ryan Gosling are great and the music is lovely I’m sure there are better films out there more deserving. But La La land is a love letter to old Hollywood and Los Angeles are two things Academy love. While watching La la Land did remind me of the Steve Martin films LA Story and Grand Canyon both incredibly 25 years old.

8. Paramount Pictures – Arrival – drops 46.8% – $2.9m – $86.6m;

9. Disney – Doctor Strange – drops 51.3% – $2.2m – $226.2m;

10. Focus – Nocturnal Animals – down 55.5% – $1.4m – $8.8m

On limited release expansion

A24 – Moonlight –  drops 30.43% – $378,081 –  dropping 144 screens – total $11.4m

Focus – Loving – down 65.7% – $217,182 – dropping 176 screens – total $7.1m

 

Fox Searchlight – Jackie – up 16.5% – $573,645 from 84 screens adding 58 – total $1.6m

Weinstein – Lion – up 21.3% – $132,511 – adding 1 screen – $700,613

Opening on limited release 

 

Paramount – Fences – $129,462 from 4 screens; disappointing debut for Denzel Washington’s Golden Globe nominated drama which has received positive reviews praising the acting performances.

Denzel Washington previous two films were critical but not box office successes Antwone Fisher in 2002 opened limited with $210,013 taking $21.1m and The Great Debaters in 2007 opened with $6m taking $30.2m; Fences trailer reminds me of Antwone Fisher.

With so many award contenders opening over the last few weeks the marketplace has become cannibalized last week Miss Sloane disappointing going wide with four other his weekend dropping heavily. Fences opening wide this weekend which doesn’t look promising with four other films opening wide against it alongside further expansions of La La Land and Manchester By the Sea expected.

Main opening Friday weekend predictions:

Opening UK

• Passengers – Sony Pictures

Jennifer Lawrence and Chris Pratt star in sci-fi Passengers both coming off huge franchise this is a film that will show if they can open a film without having the support of a franchise. While Chris Pratt will be back over the next two years with sequels to his franchises Guardians of the Galaxy 2 in 2017 and Jurassic World 2 in 2018 Jennifer Lawrence is her first st major post The Hunger Games she still has Raven/Mystique from X-Men movies. (but the next film could be her last)

As with so many films Passengers had a long development process featuring on 2007’s Black List of scripts with Keanu Reeves and Reese Witherspoon who was replaced by Rachel McAdams and in 2012 Weinstein Co acquired US rights at the Cannes Film Festival but after she dropped out a year later its original April 3rd, 2015 release date was cancelled and Weinstein also withdrew from the film.

In December 2014 was announced Sony Pictures was originally budgeted as a $35m film but grew to $120m when Sony Pictures signed Jennifer Lawrence $20m and Chris Pratt $12m. The film was caught up early this year in a legally despite with VFX company Digital Domain.

Footage was screened at CinemaCon in April and in June at CineEurope which wowed audiences was then surprising there was no trailer with Ghostbusters but that was similar to many expected the first teaser of Ghostbusters with Star Wars: The Force Awakens. Summer is normally the time when studios tease their Christmas films including Almost Christmas and Bad Santa 2. There were rumours Passengers trailer was going to be released in July with Ghostbusters but then went all quiet the first stills featured on ew.com in August.

The first trailer was released in September with The Magnificent Seven in September which highlighted the sci-fi aspects of the film and a second was released in November which made it look like Titanic in Space.  Reviews said it looks good but the plot is lacking and surprisingly Jennifer Lawrence and Chris Pratt don’t have much chemistry on screen as off during the media campaign they seemed to have good chemistry.

While it might seem strange opening two sci-fi films within days of each other Passengers will be targeting female audience and non-geeks of Star Wars with Jennifer Lawrence and Chris Pratt likely to bring similar audience as Gravity.

But the question is exhibitors will of course book Rogue One into their main screens so Passengers will be left with the smaller screens; I looked online two weeks ago, when bookings opened for Passengers and was booked into small screens with few showing it in 3D when I contacted exhibitors on social media said more showing would be added but if an exhibitor has the choice of holding Rogue One into a bigger screen or putting Passengers in the screen it’s obvious what will be picked.

Arrival had a decent opening in November taking £8.8m to date could Passengers do similar over the two lucrative weeks of Christmas it all depends on if audiences ignore critics and just go and see their favourite actress doing Titanic in Space. Reviews have been mixed with many saying that the trailers and the marketing made the film look far different than it really is with Chris Pratt’s character not as nice as he seems in the trailer which made it look like a sweet rom-com.

But do wonder if critics are being harsher on films like Collateral Beauty and Passengers as are original and expected to be better and put on a pedestal as audiences must be more disappointed seeing an original film. With original films, they are compared to other films that share their genre Collateral Beauty with It’s A Wonderful Life it could never match up to Passengers with Titanic and Sing with Zootropolis.

When original films disappointed, they are missed opportunities is it harder for these films to make an impact on critics when they are also watching award contenders so these films seem to be worse than they really are. If these original films were released against a backdrop of mostly sequels remakes reboots and comic-book movies could audiences, see them differently. As while critics slated Collateral Beauty received A- CinemaScore but the damage was already done with the critic’s reviews.

I was more disappointed at the time watching Interstellar than The Force Awakens but a few days later felt the same about The Force Awakens as I did with Interstellar. With a sequel, remake, reboot the cinemagoer will often get more caught up in the hype than if it was an original film why embargos don’t work

But will likely be another disappointing performance for Sony, in 2016 with The Angry Birds Movie its only real breakout success along with moderate success for Goosebumps, Sausage Party and A Street Cat Named Bob showing again how important Bond is to them in the UK.

2017 looks far more promising with T2: Trainspotting, Spider-Man: Homecoming, The Dark Tower, Baby Driver, Blade Runner 2049 and Jumanji.

• Ballerina – eOne

Animation featuring the voices of Elle Fanning, Dane DeHaan, Maddie Ziegler and Carly Rae Jepsen; targeting younger audiences with limited other films aimed at young children this Christmas could find similar audience to 2014’s Tinkerbell and the Fairy, 2011’s Tinkerbell and the Secret of the Wings and 2009’s Tinkerbell and the Great Fairy Rescue.

Opening Monday December 26^th

• Collateral Beauty – Warner Bros

Drama starring an ensemble cast of Will Smith, Kate Winslet, Keira Knightley, Helen Mirren, Edward Norton, Michael Peña and Naomie Harris and directed by David Frankel.

Twenty-one years ago, Will Smith have starred in action movie Bad Boys was a moderate success but then starred in Independence Day a year later which turned him from a US TV star to a global action hero in the years after Men in Black, Enemy of the State, and was Oscar nominated for Ali.

Sequels to Men in Back and Bad Boys followed along with I, Robot, Hitch, The Pursuit of Happyness, I Am Legend and Hancock but then Seven Pounds underperformed and MIB 3 took less than previous two films soon followed by the massive failure of Another Earth and Winter’s Tale. Last year Focus did ok but Concussion underperformed but this summer Suicide Squad taking over $700m worldwide despite all the negativity around it had much to do with Will Smith.

Over the years Will Smith has mixed the massive big budget films with the smaller films his breakthrough role which was underrated was Six Degrees of Separation in 1993 few saw but remember screening it in preview theatre and was a very strong performance by him.

In 2006 Will Smith starred with his son Jaden in the biographical drama The Pursuit of Happyness about Chris Gardner the film opened with £2.62m taking £9.58m. Collateral Beauty feels very similar in tone to The Pursuit of Happyness being described as It’s a Wonderful Life mixed with The Wizard of Oz. Trailer reminding me of Meet Joe Black Brad Pitt’s underrated 1998 film directed by Martin Brest and co-starring Anthony Hopkins and Nicolas Cage’s 2000 film The Family Man along with films like Miracle on 34th Street and Scrooged.

Ten years ago, David Frankel directed the fabulous The Devil Wears Prada opening with £3.26 taking £13.68m and followed it with Marley & Me in 2009 opening with £4.41m taking £15.12m. His last two films One Chance in 2013 and Hope Strings in 2012 weren’t nearly as successful.

After being slated by critics became Will Smith’s lowest ever opening for wide release in the US unlikely to do much better in the UK.

• Why Him? – 20^th Century Fox

Romantic comedy starring stars James Franco, Bryan Cranston, Zoey Deutch, Megan Mullally, Griffin Gluck, and Keegan-Michael Key and directed by John Hamburg.

In 2000 John Hamburg wrote the screenplay to Meet the Parents opening with £2.26m taking £15.1m also writing the sequel Meet the Fockers in 2005 opening with £7.91m taking £28.5m he also directed Along Came Polly in 2004 opened with £2.25m taking £7.8m Why Him? Has a similar vibe to those films with parents meeting the boyfriend of their daughter for the first time.

Last Christmas Daddy’s Home opened Boxing Day with £1.61m taking £16.71m the fun trailer could attract similar audience being an alternative to other films on release only real competition is Office Christmas Party opening two weeks earlier probably the reason why 20th Century Fox opened to open Why Him? After Christmas, which does limit a Christmas comedy playing time but avoids them cannibalizing each other.

• Monster Trucks – Paramount

Live action animated action comedy starring Lucas Till, Jane Levy, Amy Ryan, Rob Lowe, Danny Glover, Barry Pepper, and Holt McCallany and directed by Chris Wedge.

After Paramount Pictures lost distribution rights to Dreamworks Animation in 2012 announced plans for Paramount Animation to fill the gap Monster Trucks was one of the first films announced in July 2013 for a May 29^th 2015 release; its release date was changed many times December 25^th 2015, March 16^th 2016 and then January 13^th 2017 and is being released three weeks earlier in the UK in the hope it might get an audience over the lucrative Christmas holidays.

In September, it was reported Paramount would take a $115m write-down on the film due to it expected to do badly at the box office at the time it was reported that the idea for Monster Trucks was based on a four-year-old’s idea.

Opening US

• Passengers – Sony Pictures

Having Jennifer Lawrence and Chris Pratt starring in a film together after both having massive success in The Hunger Games, X-Men, Guardians of the Galaxy and Jurassic World along with the massive media coverage they generate would assume Sony Pictures were onto a winner with Passengers.

It all seemed to be going positive after exhibitors loved the footage they saw at CinemaCon in April but then there was surprisingly no trailer released in the summer when studios normally start their Christmas film campaigns. The first trailer was released in September which was positively received (received 16.3m views to date) with second released in November which confused many as made the film look completely different swapping sci-fi for rom-com.

But while Jennifer Lawrence and Chris Pratt have featured in massive franchises they have yet to have a success that wasn’t a franchise Jennifer Lawrence last non-franchise film was ensemble Joy which took $56.4 last December. While Chris Pratt last starred in The Magnificent Seven but it was sold more as a Denzel Washington film, Jurassic World, Guardians of the Galaxy and The Lego Movie while having a big part in their success weren’t successful just because of him and films before were just small roles.

On paper, it always looks great to combine the biggest Hollywood stars but it often doesn’t work; 2010’s The Tourist starring Angelina Jolie and Johnny Depp took only $67.6m and 2001’s The Mexican starring Brad Pitt and Julia Roberts took similar $66.8m. Passengers is expected to open with $35-40m.

• Sing – Universal Pictures

Animation produced by Illumination Entertainment directed by Garth Jennings featuring the voices of Matthew McConaughey, Reese Witherspoon, Seth MacFarlane, Scarlett Johansson, John C. Reilly, Tori Kelly, Taron Egerton and Nick Kroll.

The film features more than 85 classic songs and includes an original song by Stevie Wonder and Ariana Grande called Faith.

The film was screened at Toronto Film Festival as a work in progress receiving mixed reviews described as completely unoriginally (same could be said for Illumination Entertainment’s summer hit The Secret Life of Pets but still became the third biggest film of 2016 to dates showing how fickle audiences are complaining about remakes but then happy to see many reimaginations and remakes) which made many describe it as an unofficial sequel to Zootopia; trailer 2 has been viewed over 55.6m times).

With Moana taking half what Frozen took in week 4 Sing is likely to take up its slack and to have a strong opening and could possibly overtake Rogue One if it opens with $70m+ as many expect.

• Why Him? – 20^th Century Fox

After the disappointing performances or recent Christmas comedies Bad Santa 2 and Office Christmas Party Why Him? could attract a similar audience to Daddy’s Home last year which had a strong opening of $38.7m but Bryan Cranston and James Franco aren’t as well known or successful in movies as Mark Wahlberg and Will Ferrell.

Its director John Hamburg first film since 2009’s I Love You, Man but better known for writing scripts to similar themed Meet the Parents (and sequels) along with Zoolander (and sequel) and Along Came Polly which he also directed.

The plot about a dad who doesn’t feel his daughter’s boyfriend is good enough is also similar to the classic Steve Martin Christmas comedy which opened almost 25 years to the day Father of the Bride but of course, that was fun family comedy while Why Him? will be R-rated.

Why Him? has received mixed reviews likely to open with $15-20m over its 5-day opening.

• Assassin’s Creed – 20^th Century Fox

Action adventure based on the computer game of the same name starring Michael Fassbender, Marion Cotillard, Jeremy Irons, Brendan Gleeson, Charlotte Rampling and Michael K. Williams and directed by Justin Kurzel.

In October 2011 Sony Pictures had plans to make a film version in July 2012 Michael Fassbender was announced to star but then the film was put on hold. Three months later it was announced New Regency would finance the film and it would be released by 20^th Century Fox. 

The original video game the film is based on has sold over 93 million copies but Hollywood has always found it difficult to make a film from a computer game with many failures this year was the massive failure of Warcraft but then the successful The Angry Birds Movie. But have been many more failures including 1993’s Super Mario Bros, 1994’s Street Fighter 1999’s Wing Commander and 2010’s Prince of Persia. But Sony has had success with Resident Evil with the final film released next year and Warner Bros are rebooting Tomb Raider in 2018 with Alicia Vikander as Lara Croft replacing Angelina Jolie.

Like Jennifer Lawrence and Chris Pratt Michael Fassbender has starred in X-Men movies but hasn’t yet been able to open a film but people will come to see Assassin Creed more because of the game than the cast but its strong acting cast gives it a strong foundation similar to comic-book movies have done in recent years. Critical reaction has been mixed saying feels very like the games which is a good and a bad thing as means if the fans like it could do ok but also means it’s unlikely accessible to non-fans.

Opening on limited release with expansion in 2017

• A Monster Calls – Focus (limited 4 screens)

Fantasy drama starring Sigourney Weaver, Felicity Jones, Toby Kebbell, Lewis MacDougall and Liam Neeson, directed by J. A. Bayona and written by Patrick Ness, based on his own novel; had its world premiere at Toronto Film Festival in September receiving positive reviews.

• Silence -Paramount (limited 4 screens)

Historical drama film starring Andrew Garfield, Adam Driver, Liam Neeson, Tadanobu Asano, and Ciarán Hinds and directed by Martin Scorsese based on the 1966 novel by Shūsaku Endō; had its premiere in Vatican City in November receiving mixed reviews many describing it as gorgeous to look at but long and dull too.

Martin Scorsese has been developing the film since 1990 after he made his most controversial film The Last Temptation of Christ. In 2009 Daniel Day Lewis was attached but Scorsese decided to make Shutter Island and Hugo instead. In 2011 Scorsese said Silence would be his next film  but legal issues with Cecchi Gori Pictures delayed its production for breach of contract as Scorsese signed an agreement in 1990 that he was due to make Silence following completion of Kundun in 1997 but choose to make Bringing Out the Dead, Gangs of New York, and The Aviator before. Delaying further to make The Departed, Shutter Island and Hugo breaching the contract making The Wolf of Wall Street before Silence. In April 2013 was announced Scorsese would finally begin production on Silence in 2014 finally started shooting in January 2015.

Paramount Pictures acquired US rights in July 2014 originally planning a late 2015 release but the editing process delayed it for a 2016 release. In August 2016 Scorsese announced the film would be completed by October with an end of year release date expected. On November 22^nd Paramount finally released the first trailer only a month before Silence was due for release.

After production process of getting Silence made was drawn out the release seems rushed would of better been delayed but the prestige of having a Martin Scorsese film for Christmas for Paramount after their previous success with The Wolf or Wall Street was something they couldn’t deny. Even though it could hurt their own Fences directed by Denzel Washington which was originally due to open limited on Christmas Day but was brought forward to give Silence the Christmas slot before opening wide in January.

Silence failed to receive any Golden Globe nominations with many saying it as due to Paramount not sending out screeners and screening it late which was similar to what Paramount did with 2014 film Selma another film they only had US rights for.

• Patriot’s Day – Lionsgate (limited 7 screens)

Biographical drama starring Mark Wahlberg, J. K. Simmons, John Goodman, Kevin Bacon and Michelle Monaghan and directed by Peter Berg; had its premiere November 17^th at AFI Fest receiving positive reviews; Opens limited release before opening wide on January 13^th.

Mark Wahlberg recently starred in real life dramas Lone Survivor and Deepwater Horizon but has described Patriot’s Day telling the events surrounding 2013 Boston Marathon bombing as the most important film he has ever been a part of.

• 20^th Century Women – A24

Semi-autobiographical and drama starring Annette Bening, Elle Fanning, Greta Gerwig, Lucas Jade Zumann, and Billy Crudup and directed by Mike Mills; had its world premiere at the New York Film Festival in October receiving positive reviews.

• Hidden Figures – 20^th Century Fox

Biographical drama starring stars Taraji P. Henson, Octavia Spencer, Janelle Monáe, Kevin Costner, Kirsten Dunst and Jim Parsons and directed by Theodore Melfi based on the nonfiction book by Margot Lee Shetterly; received positive reviews; opens on limited release before going wide on January 6^th.

Footage was screened at Toronto Film Festival in September and a Q&A with Taraji P. Henson, Octavia Spencer, Janelle Monáe, Pharrell Williams which as positively received as 20th Century Fox then positioned Hidden Figures as an award contender. 

A week ago Michelle Obama hosted a preview screening of Hidden Figures at the White House describing it as  one of our greatest American stories going on to say.

Long before we had any of the advanced technologies that we have today NASA had to rely on human computers.  And they had to rely on geniuses like the women featured in this film.  And that’s really why I think this movie is so important –- because it doesn’t just celebrate what we achieved, but, more importantly, how we achieved it. 

And this is something that I want you young people to understand.  I want you to take this away.  Because when you’re faced with the overwhelming challenges in life — and in this case it was winning the space race, it was a challenge that we were actually losing at first, the United States.  We didn’t shrink back from that challenge.  I want to say that again — we did not shrink back from that challenge.  And we didn’t point fingers or cast blame.  What the United States did, what NASA did, what these amazing women did was that they got to work.  They just did the work. 

We sought out the very best minds in math and engineering at the time, people with diverse perspectives who could think in ways that no one had ever thought before — people like many of you in this room, the people like Katherine Johnson, and Mary Jackson, and Dorothy Vaughan.

Now, these women couldn’t even drink from the same water fountain or use the same bathroom as many of their colleagues — and you all are too young to even imagine that.  You’ve read that in the history books, but that’s how close this history is.  These women — their families are still breathing beings, and this happened in my lifetime and in many of your parents’ and grandparents’ lifetimes.  And folks didn’t always take these women seriously because they were black, and also because they were women. 

• Live By Night – Warner Bros

Crime drama starring Ben Affleck, Elle Fanning, Brendan Gleeson, Chris Messina, Sienna Miller, Zoe Saldana and Chris Cooper and directed by Ben Affleck based 2012 novel by Dennis Lehane.

Live By Night is Ben Affleck’s fourth film as a director and second based on a novel by Dennis Lehane (2007’s Gone Baby Gone) 2010’s The Town was a critical and box office success and 2012’s Argo was a critical, box office and Oscar success next for Ben Affleck to direct is expected to be The Batman starring shooting next year and Witness for the Prosecution.

Argo	12th Oct 2012	$19.45m	$136.02m
The Town	17th Sept 2010	$23.8m	$92.18m
Gone Baby Gone	19th Oct 2007	$5.5m	$20.3m

Many of Dennis Lehane novels have been turned into films 2003’s Mystic River, 2007’s Gone Baby Gone, 2010’s Shutter Island, 2014’’s The Drop and TV series 2002’s The Wire.

Warner Bros acquired rights in April 2012 originally for Leonardo DiCaprio produced through his Appian Way Productions but after Ben Affleck’s Oscar success with Argo was seen as Ben Affleck’s next film as a director and would also star and write the screenplay.

Was originally set for a Christmas 2015 release date was delayed to October 17^th 2016 after production was delayed for Batman Vs Superman. In March 2016 was pushed back to October 20^th 2017 but three months later was brought forward to January 13^th 2017. Surprised many as would have meant wouldn’t qualify for 2016 Oscars early January is normally seen as the dumping ground for undeserving films as Gangster Squad was in 2013. So was no surprise in October Warner Bros announced a platform release on December 25^th before opening wide on January 13^th.

Ben Affleck had roles in many films and TV shows in the early 90s but 1997’s Oscar-winning Good Will Hunting was his breakthrough role alongside his friend Matt Damon followed up with roles in Armageddon and Shakespeare in Love, Pearl Harbour, The Sum of All Fears but then came Gigli in 2003 a massive failure.

Three years later he had his comeback in Hollywoodland playing George Reeves who was the original Superman actor in 1950’s TV series Adventures of Superman. The Town, The Company Men, Argo, and Gone Girl followed before starring as Batman in Batman Vs Superman and Suicide Squad and The Accountant in October.

Live By Night sees Ben Affleck working again with Chris Messina (Argo) and Chris Cooper (The Town) while Sienna Miller had a screen-test with Ben Affleck for John Woo’s 2003 film Paycheck. The role went to Uma Thurman.